The Indianapolis Colts Have the NFL's Best Offense... And Nobody Expected It

The Indianapolis Colts, a team that finished 8-9 in 2024 and hasn’t made the playoffs since the 2020 season, currently sport the NFL’s best record at 6-1, and they have the NFL’s best offense by a runaway margin. Through Week 7, the Colts rank first in Offensive DVOA, Passing DVOA, and Rushing DVOA, and it’s not even close in any category. The extent to which the Colts are steamrolling every defense they face is singularly impressive, and entirely unexpected given their previous quarterback situations. 

Before the season began, Colts general manager Chris Ballard and head coach Shane Steichen signed veteran quarterback Daniel Jones to a one-year, $14 million contract with $13.15 million guaranteed, primarily to provide competition for quarterback Anthony Richardson, the team’s fourth overall pick in the first round of the 2023 draft. Richardson was supposed to end the Colts’ quarterback drama that has existed since Andrew Luck’s surprise retirement on August 24, 2019. Since then, the Colts have rifled through a litany of guys at the game’s most important position – Jacoby Brissett, Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, Nick Foles, Gardner Minshew, Joe Flacco, and Richardson – with very little to show for any of it. 

Given Jones’ NFL past – the sixth overall pick in the 2019 draft was outright released by the New York Giants, his first team, on November 22, 2024 --this is especially unexpected. Jones was signed by the Minnesota Vikings a week later as Sam Darnold’s backup, but even though Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell is one of the game’s great quarterback whisperers, nobody in their right minds thought that Jones would come out of that career crucible playing the way he is now.

Through seven games, Jones has completed 154 of 214 passes for 1,790 yards, 10 touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 105.9.  Jones has the NFL’s highest EPA per dropback at +0.27, and what he’s done under pressure this season is particularly insane. Most quarterbacks struggle to break even from an efficiency standpoint when they’re pressured, but Jones thrives on it, and nobody who saw Jones play in a Giants uniform would ever believe it. Jones has completed 44 of 72 passes when pressured for 590 yards, five touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 110.3. 

Jones’ EPA per dropback under pressure of +0.12 is specifically ridiculous in that he’s the only starting quarterback this season with a plus sign there – Dak Prescott has the NFL’s second-best EPA per dropback under pressure at -0.02, and Jones is the first quarterback to have a positive EPA per dropback under pressure since Josh Allen’s +0.02 in 2020. The last quarterback with a higher EPA/play under pressure was Patrick Mahomes in 2019, at +0.13.

You tend to expect these things from truly great quarterbacks like Allen or Mahomes. For Jones, the number must seem like science fiction – it just doesn’t happen. Except that it's happening.

People aren’t talking enough about Steichen’s passing game and Jones’ place in it, and even when they do, the talking points don’t always match up. The automatic assumption is that a historically unimpressive quarterback like Jones needs all kinds of schematic guardrails to succeed, but that’s not been the case. 

Yes, Jones leads the NFL with a 33.6% dropback rate with play-action, but he’s actually been much better without it. With play-action this season, Jones has completed 52 of 73 passes for 728 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 103.2. Without play-action, Jones has completed 99 of 142 passes for 1,062 yards, eight touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 107.2.

Steichen uses pre-snap motion intelligently, but this has also not been a crutch for Jones.  With motion this season, Jones has completed 95 of 125 passes for 1,074 yards, four touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 101.9. Without motion, Jones has completed 57 of 89 passes for 716 yards, six touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 111.4.

So, how has this worked so well? Play design and execution are the two hallmarks, and it’s reflective of a team that had everything else going for it on offense once they figured the quarterback thing out. 

The 48-yard completion to receiver Alec Pierce last Sunday against the Los Angeles Chargers in a 38-24 Colts win was a great example. Pierce is one of the NFL’s most underrated deep targets, and Steichen knows what’s up with that. On third-and-17 with 11:51 left in the first half, receiver Michael Pittman ran an intermediate curl route to draw coverage against the Chargers’ Cover-3 defense, and as a result, Pierce ran the deep corner route with nobody around him. Steichen is great at designing route concepts that create openings for his quarterbacks, but his quarterbacks still have to execute.

Jones had some exceptional help in the blocking department from running back Jonathan Taylor, who has a legitimate claim to NFL Most Valuable Player status based on production. I guarantee you that in the building, the Colts are talking more about Taylor’s block this week than the three rushing touchdowns he scored against the Chargers.

Taylor’s job here was to chip Chargers edge-rusher Khalil Mack before he ran his flat route, but Taylor did a lot more than that. He blocked Mack right into defensive tackle Justin Eboigbe, using the Chargers’ own line stunts against them. With that, and with tight end Tyler Warren’s chip block on edge-rusher Odafe Oweh to the other side, Jones had the time and room to make the deep throw with total conviction.

Steichen was happy — both with the throw, and what he saw of the block in-game.

“We had a lot of trust and whoever that ball went to, and that's where the coverage went. It was a one-on-one on the outside there and Daniel saw it, took advantage of it right there in that opportunity, and made a hell of a play to ice the game.”

As for the block?

“It was huge," Steichen said. "I'll have to go back and look at it. That’s the pretty part, you guys [the media] get to see the TV copy and stuff. We just get the photos down there, but it was huge, that protection there and then the route by Alec hitting the big one over the top on third down, third-and-long, those are hard to convert. You know, to hit that in that situation and get our offense rolling was huge.”

On Monday, having seen the block, Steichen was even happier.

It was very impressive," he said. "You know, that's where it starts with the protection piece on that third down and JT got the chip block, took out two guys, and then it allowed Daniel to step up in the pocket and hit Alec for the deep one there. So, it was a big-time block by JT.”

This is the other element Jones never had before – well, maybe except for that cup of coffee with the Vikings. Total belief in his offense, and total conviction as a result. No quarterback can succeed without that belief, and after a long history of coaches in New York who couldn’t unlock his gifts, Daniel Jones now has the perfect head coach… and Shane Steichen appears to have his ideal quarterback.

Whatever it is that is working for the Colts, it's working like a charm.