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The Most Surprising Draft Pick The Bucs Could Make
Robert Scheer/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK

Every year there are moments in the NFL Draft that come as a shock. Sometimes it’s a trade coming out of nowhere. Other times it’s a team drafting a player that nobody had projected there. And occasionally it’s when a team picks a player at position that was not considered a need.

What would be the most surprising pick that the Bucs could make?

Probably going with a quarterback before Day 3.

Considering the team just gave Baker Mayfield a three-year, $100 million contract, quarterback isn’t the most necessary of selections – especially with backup Kyle Trask still under contract and third-string QB John Wolford re-signed this offseason.

Some teams that are desperate to find a starting quarterback have to take one in the first round. That’s why Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud went first and second overall to Carolina and Houston, respectively, last year. It’s also why Caleb Williams will go first this year followed by some combination of Drake Maye Jayden Daniels and J.J. McCarthy likely in the Top 10.

As we’ve seen with Young and other rookie quarterbacks throughout the years, sometimes throwing a player directly into the fire as a rookie doesn’t always work. Yet when teams hit on first-round quarterbacks, like the Texans did with Stroud last year, it can set up a franchise for years to come.

History Of Drafting QBs Earlier Than Expected

Every now and then NFL teams like to get ahead of the curve and draft their quarterback of the future while they still have a competent starter playing well. The two best examples of this come from the 2017 draft when the Kansas City Chiefs traded up to the 10th overall pick to select Patrick Mahomes while they still had Alex Smith as their starter.

Mahomes sat that first year as Smith helped Kansas City win another division title and was traded to Washington the next year so that Mahomes could start. Mahomes showed he was ready in the last game of the regular season with the Chiefs clinching the division, while putting on a great performance. It’s safe to say that the Chiefs made the right move by trading up for Mahomes – even with Smith atop the depth chart.

The other example came in the 2020 draft when the Packers selected Jordan Love with the 26th overall pick despite having Aaron Rodgers as the quarterback. The move came as a surprise especially because Rodgers went on to win the league MVP honors in 2020 and 2021.

But Rodgers was traded to the Jets in the 2023 offseason and Love played so well down the stretch in his first full year as a starter. Green Bay clinched a Wild Card playoff spot and beat Dallas in the first round. It looks like the Packers have their quarterback of the future and it was valuable that Love sat to learn behind Rodgers for two seasons.

Would The Bucs Consider This?

So, even though the Bucs re-signed Baker Mayfield to a multi-year deal, could they still end up drafting a quarterback early? Cody Benjamin of CBS Sports has listed Tampa Bay in group of “mystery teams” that could surprise everyone by picking a quarterback in the first or second round.

This is what he said about the Bucs:

“The Bucs just re-signed Baker Mayfield to a $150 extension, but the deal is structured in a way Tampa Bay can actually save up to $20 million by cutting the redeemed journeyman after 2024, should the extended marriage not pan out. In other words, Mayfield is the guy here, but like Geno Smith in Seattle after his breakout, the bond isn’t irrevocable. Only Kyle Trask and John Wolford sit behind him on the depth chart, meanwhile.”

The biggest aspect in this whole equation is Mayfield’s contract. It’s a lot of money for sure, but with $50 million of the $100 million guaranteed up front, it allows for Tampa Bay to get out of the deal after two years if Mayfield’s play doesn’t live up to expectations. What Mayfield did in his first season with the Bucs was fantastic, and the hope is that he’ll be even better this year. But there’s no guarantee he’ll do so given his track record for inconsistent play over his first six years in the league.

Why It Would Make Sense For The Bucs To Consider Drafting A QB Early This Year

Even if Baker Mayfield plays all three years of his contract but the Bucs don’t want to pay him a ton of money again at age 32, it would still give Tampa Bay a choice with a new quarterback for either one or two seasons depending on which round they are drafted. Kyle Trask is also on the last year of his deal and it doesn’t seem like the team is committed to him for the long term. With John Wolford is best suited as a third-stringer, so it wouldn’t hurt to upgrade at the backup position.

Mayfield has a long injury history in his career. He was able to play every game last season in Tampa Bay but dealt with a number of nagging injury issues throughout it. Who knows if he can get through all of it this year, so the Bucs need a plan in place.

Tampa Bay still has a lot of other positions to fill such as interior offensive line, backup safety and wide receiver among many others. But if the Bucs selected Washington’s Michael Penix Jr., South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler or Tulane’s Michael Pratt by the end of Day 2 that would definitely come as a surprise that everybody would be talking about.

This article first appeared on Pewter Report and was syndicated with permission.

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