For two years now the dialogue around Chiefs training camp and the entire Chiefs offense has been the need for more explosive plays. Per Next Gen Stats Patrick Mahomes ranked 33rd in the NFL in The percentage of pass attempts that travel more than 20 yards downfield (by air yards). The Chiefs were tied for 24th with the Carolina Panthers with 5.1 yards per a play. Among qualified passers Patrick Mahomes ranked 25th out of 26th in ADOT (average depth of target). The stats can go on and on about the need for the Chiefs offense to get back to generating explosive plays.
The lack of explosiveness is easy to explain away due to injuries and personnel over the last two years. The hope is that an improved tackle situation combined with a healthy Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown will take this offense to where it wants to go. However, there's a dirty little secret about the Chiefs defense that isn't getting talked about enough...
Last year the Chiefs ranked 23rd in 20+ yard completions allowed with 52 they ranked 27th in 40+ yard completions. Both numbers are some of the worst rates in the league with some of the other worst defenses in the league (Panthers, Bengals and Jaguars). While the Chiefs have been predominantly a defensive team the last two seasons. Despite them ranking top 10 in yards allowed and top 5 in points allowed the Chiefs defense has a problem with explosive passes.
While the offense's need for explosive plays has a path to improvement with changes on the horizon the defense might have more questions than answers for their problem. The Chiefs coverage unit last year struggled once it lost Jaylen Watson and they never had a great answer in the slot. Chamarri Conner allowed 435 yds and 3 touchdowns from the slot last year and a staggering +11.2 EPA/play per next gen stats. This same coverage unit is now relying on a second year 4th round pick (Jaden Hicks) to be the lead safety to fill the very large role that Justin Reid vacated. Additionally, the encouraging signing of Kristian Fulton to move Trent McDuffie back to the slot corner role gets more discouraging every day as Fulton remains on the PUP list.
Another avenue to limiting explosive plays is by generating quick pressures the Chiefs ranked 12th in time to pressure and19th in sacks despite having the 4th highest blitz rate. The Chiefs defense had to blitz to generate pressure and when that happens it leaves the defense more susceptible to big plays. The Chiefs defense also lost its 2nd leading sack getter in Tershawn Wharton this off-season to the Carolina Panthers. The hope is a full healthy season from Charles Omenihu, more development from Felix Anudike-Uzomah and rookie Ashton Gillotte can turn the sack numbers around.
It's always hard watching training camp highlights. Sure, it's exciting to see Patrick Mahomes drop a deep ball into the hands of Xavier Worthy 45 yards downfield. The only problem with is it's the Chiefs defense being beat. Considering that both the Chiefs offense and defense struggled with explosive pass plays last year it's weakness against weakness right now. We won't really know if each unit improves in this area until the season begins and we see it in action. Particularly, the offense who spent all camp last year saying and doing similar things about explosive pass plays only for the wheels to fall off again.
While there are plenty of concerns to be had about the Chiefs defense there also is a path for improvement that is easy to see too. If Fulton can get healthy, you instantly have 2 good cover corners on the outside and the leagues best slot defender. Backed up by exprienced corners in Williams and Johnson and a promising rooking in Nohl Williams. The safety room might have better depth this year with Bryan Cook a full year removed from his injury, Mike Edwards back as a veteran presence Chamarri Conner moving into a full time safety role and Jaden Hicks playing more. The defensive line is more young and explosive and it feels like Chris Jones will bounce back from a 5 sack season last year.
The most likely avenue to improvement for both units is going to be health and consistency. If the Chiefs offense can just get to middle of the pack in explosive plays and the Chiefs defense limits just a few more plays the two units will compliment one another better. The last two years the Chiefs defense hasn't had a large margin for error with the offense being limited. On the other side of the coin the Chiefs offense would be able to overcome more plays given up if they could actually win a shoot out style of game. All eyes are downfield for 2025.
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