The NY Jets have a developing Will McDonald situation

Third-year edge rusher Will McDonald was a popular name on the trade deadline rumor mill. The New York Jets ultimately decided to keep him.

When McDonald followed up the trade buzz with a four-sack performance in his next game, leading New York to a win over the Cleveland Browns, it seemed as if the Jets’ decision was instantly proven correct.

In the two games since, though, McDonald has gone missing. Across 84 defensive snaps, McDonald had no sacks, one quarterback hit, one tackle, and a measly five total pressures. The Jets lost both games, and their non-existent pass rush was a glaring weakness in each defeat.

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It continues what has been a disappointing season for the Jets’ former first-round pick. Some might describe it as a “hot-and-cold” year, but the reality is that it’s just been flat-out cold, with the Browns game representing the only “hot” to speak of.

McDonald was revered for his 10.5 sacks in 2024, but let’s put the sack statistic aside for a second. As valuable as they are, they can be fluky and erratic (unless you’re Myles Garrett), so they’re not the best metric for evaluating a pass rusher’s overall impact. That title belongs to total pressures, which combines all sacks, hits, and hurries into one number.

Not only did McDonald rack up 10.5 sacks in 2024, but he tied for 13th among edge rushers with 61 total pressures (according to Pro Football Focus). This indicates that he was consistently making an impact, regardless of whether he was getting sacks.

With 61 total pressures in 17 games, McDonald produced an average of 3.6 pressures per game. That number was comparable to players like Brian Burns (3.6) and Nik Bonitto (3.3).

Fast forward to the 2025 season. Through 11 games, how many times do you think McDonald recorded over 3.6 pressures in a game?

The answer: Once. That would be his Week 10 outburst against Cleveland, when his four sacks were part of a seven-pressure explosion. This came against a Browns team that has the NFL’s worst pass-blocking grade (via PFF) by an enormous margin.

Other than that, McDonald finished with three pressures or fewer in each of his other 10 games. He has managed to hit the four-pressure mark in just one game; last season, he did it nine times. Through 11 games, he had already done it six times.

Going into Week 13, McDonald is tied for 40th among edge rushers with a paltry 28 pressures, an average of 2.5 per game across 11 appearances. He’s dropped 27 spots on the list compared to his final ranking in 2024.

McDonald’s lackluster numbers could be brushed aside for a while, but now that his slump has gone on for about two-thirds of the season, it can no longer be ignored.

The Jets have a Will McDonald conundrum.

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Are there factors beyond his control?

In fairness to McDonald, there are some reasonable excuses that could partially explain his production dip.

The Jets’ back-end coverage has been weak, allowing opponents to get the ball out quickly. New York also rarely holds a lead, which minimizes the number of obvious passing situations in which McDonald can pin his ears back and go. Not to mention, the Jets’ defensive line is paper-thin, making it easy for teams to push help toward McDonald.

However, those excuses shouldn’t apply to pressure production. They can explain a player’s lack of sacks, but there are few excuses for a lack of pressures. While a perfect storm is required to create a sack opportunity, the same doesn’t apply if we reduce the goal to merely pressuring the quarterback. Unless the ball comes out instantly (such as a screen), there is almost always a chance to beat the block and at least earn credit for a pressure.

McDonald could have used the same excuses last year. The Jets won five games and rarely held big leads. The pass defense was better, but it was still a weakness, as the Jets ranked 21st in pass defense DVOA. Plus, with Jermaine Johnson out for the entirety of McDonald’s time as a starter, McDonald demanded even more attention than he has this year with Johnson healthy for most of the games.

The numbers support the idea that the favorability of McDonald’s opportunities has not changed much. In 2024, he faced a true pass set on 49.8% of his pass-rush snaps. This season, he’s at 48.5%, a marginal decline. For perspective, the 2025 league average for edge rushers is 49.3%.

One thing working against McDonald is a decline in snaps. He’s down to 40.4 snaps per game from 44.5 last year. He’s specifically seen a decline in pass-rush chances, as he is averaging 24.4 pass-rush snaps compared to 27.2 last year.

However, McDonald’s drop in production isn’t just about opportunities. He’s been less efficient on a per-play basis, too. Last year, he created pressure on 13.2% of his pass-rush snaps; this year, he’s at 10.4%. The 2025 league average for edge rushers is 11.7%.

Among the 63 edge rushers with at least 200 pass-rush snaps this season, McDonald’s 10.4% pressure rate ranks 42nd.

Simply put, McDonald has rushed the passer at the level of a below-average starter.

We know McDonald is capable of better than that; we saw it last year. While he might be playing like a below-average starter, it doesn’t necessarily mean that he is.

But as the season marches forward and McDonald continues to stockpile mediocre production, it’s time to ask the question: Does he have a spot in the Jets’ long-term plans?

Is McDonald playing for his Jets future?

If Aaron Glenn, Darren Mougey, and Steve Wilks have made one thing clear about their defensive vision, it’s that they value physicality, grit, and size.

We saw it in the offseason, starting with the decision to let the small D.J. Reed walk and replace him with a longer, more physical cornerback in Brandon Stephens. They also made a statement by signing a sturdy defensive tackle in Byron Cowart, deviating from the previous regime’s preference for signing athletic, penetrating defensive tackles like Quinton Jefferson and Javon Kinlaw.

In the draft, the Jets added another long, physical corner in Azareye’h Thomas. Then, when Cowart went down in August, the Jets swung back-to-back trades for run-stopping defensive tackles Harrison Phillips and Jowon Briggs.

The push for physicality has continued throughout the season, particularly when they swapped the speedy Michael Carter II for the tougher Jarvis Brownlee. The staff’s consistently high snap counts for Micheal Clemons stand as further evidence of what they seek in their defensive players, especially up front.

Does McDonald fit into this vision?