Despite being just 1-1, the Falcons have every reason to be optimistic about their trajectory.
The ground game finally came alive in Week 2, piling up 218 yards on 39 attempts. Michael Penix Jr. has also shown real poise through his first five NFL starts. He flashed fourth-quarter heroics in Week 1, then protected the football in a hostile environment on the road in Week 2. Perhaps the most impressive aspect of his game so far is his ability to push the ball downfield without putting it in harm’s way — a rare trait for a young quarterback.
That ball security is going to be critical because the Falcons may have finally found a defense. Atlanta ranks inside the top-ten in every major defensive category. They are top-five in most, including #1 in creating havoc plays, which are described as tackles for loss, sacks, interceptions, passes defended, and forced fumbles. That’s a stark contrast from what we’ve seen in recent years, which should have everybody re-evaluating the Falcons’ ceiling this season.
Atlanta’s defense is now more than capable of winning games on its own, as we saw on Sunday night against the Vikings. The Falcons racked up six sacks and forced two turnovers, holding Minnesota to just 198 yards of total offense and six points. It was a damn near perfect performance from the entire team, but there was one glaring weakness on display in an area that will surely cost Atlanta games against better opponents.
The mark of a premier offensive coordinator is their ability to find the end zone when in the red zone. Since Zac Robinson took over as offensive coordinator, the Falcons have had no problem moving the ball down the field, but they’ve struggled converting drives into touchdowns.
Last year, the Falcons averaged nearly 370 yards per game, which was the sixth-most in the league. But they only averaged 22.9 points per game, which ranked 13th, in large part because of their inability to convert in the red area. The Falcons ranked 20th in red zone efficiency last season, turning just 54.72% of their trips inside the 20 into touchdowns.
This season, even though the sample size is minuscule, that number is far worse. The Falcons are scoring touchdowns inside the red zone at a measly 28.57% clip.
Some of the Falcons misfortunes through the first two weeks can be chalked up to Todd Bowles and Brian Flores. Those are two of the best defensive minds in the game. Some of it is poor execution from the players. But some of it falls directly on Robinson, who hasn’t yet lived up to the reputation of the offensive mastermind Atlanta believed they were getting.
The good news? This is fixable. The Falcons have the talent to improve dramatically in the red zone as the season progresses. But Robinson has to adjust — and soon — or this team will continue to leave points on the field and fall short of its potential.
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