The safest picks in the third round of fantasy football drafts

With the 2023 NFL preseason finally behind us, fantasy football drafts are in full swing. The third round offers many exciting options, but some players carry less risk than others and one wrong decision could derail your season. Here are the three safest third-rounders in ESPN PPR redraft leagues.

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills quarterback 

Allen might not be the best quarterback in the NFL, but from a fantasy perspective, he's by far the safest option at the position in the third round. After finishing as the QB1 in 2020 and 2021, Allen was last season's QB2 overall behind Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes due to an elbow injury, turnover issues and a canceled Week 17 game. 

Unlike the situation in Kansas City, which worsened this offseason with the departures of wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster and OC Eric Bieniemy, Buffalo made strides to put Allen in a better position to succeed. The team drafted former Utah tight end Dalton Kincaid in the first round to improve its passing attack and it added depth to the offensive line.

Additionally, Allen has a rushing upside that few, including Mahomes, possess. As FantasyPros' Pat Fitzmaurice points out, Allen has rushed for at least 700 yards in each of the last two years and has scored at least six rushing touchdowns in all five of his NFL seasons. Philadelphia's Jalen Hurts is likely the only other top quarterback option that can be that dynamic on the ground, though he won't have the level of passing volume as Allen. 

The subtle improvements to an already elite offense, coupled with his safe floor, should help Allen maintain his status as a top-two option at the position in fantasy and ultimately reclaim the QB1 title.

Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints wide receiver

Many are anticipating Olave to fully break out this year after a promising debut season, which saw him become the third Saints rookie to surpass the 1,000-yard mark. The possibility of a breakout is being baked into Olave's ADP and while such expectations may seem overly optimistic, the third-round price tag shouldn't be too steep for fantasy managers.

Not only was Olave's success as a rookie noteworthy in Saints lore, but also among rookie wideouts in NFL history. His 2.42 yards per route run was the fifth-most for a first-year receiver since 2011, according to Late-Round Fantasy Football’s JJ Zachariason. Historically, every rookie wideout to exceed 2.25 yards per route run finished as a top-seven wide receiver in their sophomore season, per Fresh Fantasy's Alex Caruso.

The arrival of quarterback Derek Carr, who is a considerable upgrade over Andy Dalton, should allow Olave to continue this trend and perhaps emerge as a top-five option at the wide receiver position. 

As an added bonus to Olave's value, he could be a matchup-winning wide receiver for the first week of the season. The Saints open the season at home against the Titans, whose defense allowed the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers last season (25.9). 

DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver 

Despite fellow Eagles wideout A.J. Brown coming off the board as a second-round pick, Smith shouldn't be viewed as a typical WR2. Both Brown and Smith were top 10 receivers in fantasy last season, with the former finishing as the WR6 and the latter as the WR9.

Although Brown should continue to be a focal point in Philadelphia's offense, Smith could easily lead the team in receiving if his usage from late last season carries into 2023. Per SportsLine's Jacob Gibbs, Smith actually out-targeted Brown in six of the Eagles' final eight games, ranking as the WR5 on a points-per-game basis during that stretch. 

While it might seem crazy to say, Smith could be even more productive in fantasy now that Philadelphia has a worse roster this season compared to last, albeit by a small margin. Underdog Fantasy's Josh Norris recently noted that Smith was targeted just 19 times in the fourth quarter last season, resulting in a mere 12 receptions across 17 games because Philadelphia was consistently blowing teams out.

With the Eagles losing several defensive starters during free agency, they're more susceptible to shootouts, which is what fantasy managers should want to see more of, considering they have the offensive firepower to keep up.