The Starting 11: Chiefs-Colts Preview

Here’s the Starting 11 for the Chiefs-Colts game in Week 12…

1-Mahomes-Anarumo VII

For a second straight week, Patrick Mahomes renews a rivalry with an elite defensive coordinator. He and Lou Anarumo know each other well – or at least know each other’s tendencies. They’ll meet for a seventh time on Sunday, the first since Anarumo took the reins of the Colts’ defense.

Their head-to-head series, with Anarumo as Bengals defensive coordinator (2019-24), couldn’t be more evenly matched. Including a pair of playoff games – both AFC championships -- the quarterback and coach have split the first six meetings (3-3). Mahomes has a 100.4 passer rating in those six games, with 11 touchdown passes and four interceptions. The quarterback has won the last three contests.

In those six games, the Chiefs have outscored the Bengals by just three points, 153-150. Incredibly, five of their six games have been decided by three points or less, including their most recent meeting, a 26-25 Chiefs win in Week 2 last season.

2-Number of the Week (7)

According to CBS analyst Doug Clawson, Mahomes and Daniel Jones have the same number of deep-ball touchdown passes (seven, of at least 20 air yards) over the last four seasons, since the beginning of 2022. Clawson notes that Mahomes and Xavier Worthy have connected on only five of 28 deep-ball targets since Worthy entered the league in the first round of the 2024 draft.

3-Elite defense last week, elite offense this week

Five NFL teams have two losses, tied for fewest in the league. Kansas City came off its bye last week staring at two of them, Denver and Indianapolis. Last week, the Chiefs faced the league’s No. 3 defense. This week, Kansas City squares off with the NFL’s No. 1 offense. Indianapolis leads the NFL in scoring (32.1 points per game), total offense (396.9), yards per play (6.41) and first downs (23.7). The Colts have the league’s leading passer, Daniel Jones (265.9 passing yards per game), and leading rusher, Jonathan Taylor (113.9 rushing yards per game).

4-Spotlight – individual matchup

Defensive end George Karlaftis against veteran Colts right tackle Braden Smith. Karlaftis leads the Chiefs with five sacks and owns the fifth-highest pressure rate in the NFL among players with at least five sacks, per The 33rd Team. Smith has given up just one sack all season and ranks in the upper third of all offensive tackles this season, according to Pro Football Focus. Jones has taken 12 sacks in his last two games, including seven in his last start against the Falcons.

5-Spotlight – team matchup

Turnovers should be significant in this game. The Colts have committed eight turnovers in the last two games, including six in a loss at Pittsburgh in Week 9. Indianapolis is 0-2 with a turnover margin of minus-2 or worse, and 8-0 in the other games. Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ defense has zero takeaways in its last two games. Kansas City is 5-2 when finishing with an even or better turnover margin.

6-Streak speak

The Chiefs, who finished 15-2 last season, have never lost three straight games since Mahomes became their starting quarterback to begin the 2018 campaign. They need a win over the Colts to avoid their longest losing streak since a four-game slide from Nov. 5-Dec. 3, 2017.

7-Did you know?

Seven-time Pro Bowler Quenton Nelson played with both Jerry Tillery and Drue Tranquill at Notre Dame, helping to turn around a Fighting Irish program that finished 4-8 in 2016. The following season, Nelson’s final year while lining up in practice opposite Tillery and Tranquill, Notre Dame finished 10-3 and beat LSU in the Citrus Bowl.

After the Colts took Nelson sixth overall in the first round of the 2018 draft, Tillery and Tranquill led Notre Dame to a 12-1 finish, their only loss to Trevor Lawrence and Clemson in the College Football Playoff at the Cotton Bowl. Tillery went in the first round the following spring (28th overall), Tranquill in the fourth (130th overall), both selected by the Los Angeles Chargers.

8-Under-the-radar storyline

Quarterback Gardner Minshew is very familiar with Colts head coach Shane Steichen. They spent every day together for virtually three years, 2021-23. Steichen was the Eagles’ offensive coordinator from 2021-22 before taking the Indianapolis reins in 2023. One of the team’s first transactions that year was to sign Minshew as an unrestricted free agent.

Steichen’s first starting quarterback with the Colts, Minshew earned a Pro Bowl invitation. In 13 starts, he passed for a career-best 3,305 yards. Rather than re-sign Minshew in 2024, the Colts opted to let him leave in free agency and commit to 2023 draft choice Anthony Richardson.

9-Trend time

Jonathan Taylor registered a franchise-record and career-most 286 scrimmage yards (244 rushing, 42 receiving) with three rushing touchdowns in Berlin two weeks ago. In the process, he became the only player in NFL annals to post four games with at least three rushing touchdowns through the first 10 weeks of a season.

Taylor enters Sunday with 73 scrimmage touchdowns (66 rushing, seven receiving) in 77 career games. He needs two more against the Chiefs to become the fifth running back ever to reach 75 scrimmage TDs in less than 80 games. He would join Jim Brown (72 games), LaDainian Tomlinson (72), Emmitt Smith (77) and Todd Gurley (78).

10-Rookie Road:

Tyler Warren and Brashard Smith squared off in the first round of the 2024 College Football Playoff, Dec. 21 at Penn State. Warren and the Nittany Lions beat Smith’s SMU Mustangs, 38-10. With temperatures in the low 20s, Smith had 62 yards on 18 carries along with 24 yards on four catches. Warren had four catches for 33 yards, one carry for 6 yards and an incomplete pass. The Colts took Warren 14th overall in the first round of the 2025 draft. Kansas City selected Smith two days later, 228th overall in the seventh round.

11-And last but not least

Including an illustrious postseason career, Mahomes has 40,791 passing yards. He needs 292 on Sunday to eclipse Peyton Manning (41,082) for the most by a player in his first nine seasons in NFL history.

Also, by reaching 250 passing yards and three touchdown passes in a fifth consecutive home game, Mahomes would add to a phenomenal stretch. Only three players ever – Steve Beuerlein (1999 with Carolina), Aaron Rodgers (2011 with Green Bay) and Drew Brees (2015 with New Orleans) – have authored such five-game home streaks within the same season.