The top NFL player prop bets for Week 1 and beyond

Since the United States Supreme Court lifted the national ban on sports betting, a wave of individual states began preparations to legalize it, paving the way for sportsbooks to be opened at existing casinos and new ones to be built. We're well on our way now toward more than three dozen states having legalized sports betting. As the taboo starts to wane, more sports fans will make their first bets. 

With so many casual fans competing in fantasy football, the same type of strategy can be applied to wagering on NFL prop bets. You start and sit fantasy players based on their projected individual performances. You make your prop bet based on a player's projected individual performance. 

For the first week of the NFL season, I targeted one player prop per game.

Odds: over 265 | under 265

For many, the Browns are a playoff lock. For that to happen, Baker Mayfield needs to finish as one of the top five quarterbacks this season. He averaged 271 passing yards per game in 13 starts last season. Tennessee isn't the sexiest team to watch play, but its pass defense allowed fewer than 217 pass yards per game last season. We'll pump the brakes on Baker Week 1.

The bet: UNDER

Odds: over 75 | under 75

Jackson averaged 79.4 rush yards per game in his seven starts behind center last season. In this his sophomore season, the Ravens must find a way to move the chains via Jackson's arm too. They can't turn into a one-dimensional offense. Against a depleted Dolphins roster that is coming to terms with the likelihood Miami will earn the No. 1 pick in next spring's draft, Jackson must work the ball around and not call his own number.

The bet: UNDER

Odds: over 7.5 | under 7.5

As is typically the case, we didn't see much of Julio Jones during the preseason. The Falcons and bettors know what he can do on Sundays. He averaged seven receptions per game last season, and Pro Football Focus says he has the most favorable wide receiver/cornerback matchup of the week.

The bet: OVER

Odds: over 115 Yards | under 115 Yards

Like Julio Jones, the Jets protected their new franchise running back this preseason. Acquired in the offseason after missing all of 2018 due to a contract holdout, Bell comes with a sense of the unknown and "we don't know, what we don't know" as it pertains to 2019. What we do know is that in his last full season with the Steelers, Bell averaged nearly 130 total yards per game. In his first game with the Jets, he'll need to knock some rust off.

The bet: UNDER

Odds: over 5.5 | under 5.5

Carson Wentz's favorite target saw 156 passes thrown his direction last season. Ertz averaged 7.3 receptions per game for the Eagles in 2018, but that clip may regress somewhat this season. The Eagles went out and signed some other talent to surround Wentz, including DeSean Jackson and Jordan Howard. This is not to say Ertz won't eat well this season. Wentz just has more mouths to feed than before. Ertz caught nine passes against the Redskins in their first matchup last season, and I'd expect more of the same this time around.

The bet: OVER

Odds: over 80 | under 80

We last saw Gurley play in the Super Bowl. The Rams are being cautious with his ailing knee injury that cost him time and touches toward the latter end of the 2018 season. The team continues to say the right things about Gurley's future, but I'm hesitant to buy into the glass half-full outlook because we don't know what we don't know.

The bet: UNDER

Odds: over 2.5 | under 2.5

Be careful with any Mahomes prop bet this weekend. The Jaguars defense remains a legit elite unit, and Jacksonville is at home. While Mahomes' 50 touchdowns, or 3.1 touchdowns per game, were an impressive feat last season, Jacksonville allowed just 17 passing touchdowns in 16 games last season. 

The bet: UNDER

Odds: over 5.5 | under 5.5

One of the more underrated NFL receivers, Allen average 6.1 receptions per game last year and 6.4 receptions per game the season before. He's Philip Rivers' favorite target and has a favorable matchup against the Colts secondary.

The bet: OVER

Odds: over 18.5 | under 18.5

With no A.J. Green, Mixon becomes the Bengals' top offensive asset. He averaged 17 carries per game in 14 contests last season. To compete on a weekly basis this season as it looks to avoid the league's worst record, Cincinnati is going to need to control the clock and that means running the football. If Seattle jumps out to an early lead, the OVER is toast, but I have faith that the Bengals give Mixon as many touches as possible.

The bet: OVER

Odds: over 85.5 | under 85.5

Barkley rushed 11 times for 28 yards in his first meeting against the Cowboys and 17 times for 109 yards at the end of an exhausting NFL rookie season. He averaged 81.2 rush yards per game last season but heads into this season a year smarter and with a better sense of what the Cowboys will throw at him this weekend. With Odell Beckham now in Cleveland, Barkley can spread his wings during his sophomore season.

The bet: OVER

Odds: over 230 | under 230

The Cardinals and Lions both possess some of the worst Super Bowl odds heading into the regular season. However, as Matthew Stafford remains the Lions franchise quarterback for another year, Arizona has turned the franchise QB page twice in two seasons. Murray replaces Josh Rosen, but offensive line concerns linger, which translates to will the new franchise trigger have enough time to throw or — because of his skill set — will he morph into Russell Wilson, tuck it and run? For as poorly as they played last season, the Lions pass defense is above average.

The bet: UNDER

Odds: over 2.5 | under 2.5

The Buccaneers O-line allowed the third-most hits on the quarterback last season, and based on some preseason film not much has changed to improve up front. This means Jameis Winston's pocket clock might get to enjoy a few seconds of clarity before the pass rush overwhelms him.

The bet: OVER

Odds: over 75 | under 75

The Patriots secondary is sneaky good. This is not a favorable matchup for Smith-Schuster in his first season without Antonio Brown drawing double coverages. Pro Football Focus tagged the entire Steelers receiving corps with some of the toughest matchups of the week. While I think Ben Roethlisberger and Smith-Schuster find some gaps in coverage, it won't be often enough to hit this over. 

The bet: UNDER

Odds: over 2 | under 2

It took one day for the Houston Texans to completely overhaul their roster. Despite an upgrade to the offensive line and receiving corps, franchise quarterback Deshaun Watson will experience a stiff New Orleans pass rush Monday night. Remember: He was sacked a league-high 62 times last season. Watson might earn a back-door prop bet push on a meaningless touchdown late in the game, but I'm confident in the Saints defense to harass the Texans franchise quarterback.

The bet: UNDER