The top QBs available in the 2019 and 2020 NFL Drafts

Last year’s draft produced steady buzz for the highest-profile QB prospects. The trio discussed as top-10-caliber picks for months leading up to the draft — Sam Darnold, Josh Allen and Josh Rosen —went in the top 10. Baker Mayfield ascended late and went No. 1 overall to the Browns. 

Kyler Murray is believed a target of Arizona, but who knows where the the rest of the 2019 quarterback crop may land. It's clear this class is not as coveted as the 2018 group or the class of 2017, when Mitch Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson went in the first round. In 2015 and '16, quarterbacks went 1-2 overall. That seems next to impossible to occur this year. 

Will QB-needy teams pick from this year's crop or wait until 2020, when better talent may be available?  This is a fork-in-the-road moment for several franchises. With that in mind, here is how the 2019 and 2020 draft-eligible quarterbacks would rank were they all in one class — with much less known, obviously, about how the latter group will stand up to a season’s worth of NFL scouting scrutiny.

1. Tua Tagovailoa: One of the fun fall subplots for NFL fans, especially those whose teams will need a QB in 2020, will be watching Tagovailoa audition to be next year’s No. 1 overall pick. If Alabama's quarterback were in the 2019 draft, 49ers general manager John Lynch would be receiving a few more calls than he's getting for the top overall pick. (Presumably, the Niners will select Ohio State defensive end Nick Bosa No. 1 overall.)

Playing with future NFL starters Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs, Tagovailoa excelled last season, throwing for 43 touchdowns  (compared to six interceptions). Because the Crimson Tide was usually far ahead early in games, Tagovailoa often sat in the second half last season. Although he may measure six feet or shorter at next year’s combine, the Crimson Tide southpaw has drawn rave reviews and looks ready to push for a Heisman Trophy. 

2. Justin Herbert: Had Herbert come out after his junior season, a team with tepid enthusiasm for this year’s QB class may have traded into a position to land him. The Oregon product had the Dolphins infatuated and drew in-person scouting trips from Denver GM John Elway and Giants GM Dave Gettleman. It’s possible none of those teams draft a quarterback in the first round this year. 

Although his completion percentage cratered, dropping from 67.5 percent as an eight-game starter in 2017 to 59.4 percent in full-time duty last season, the 6-6 Herbert threw for 29 TDs and only eight interceptions in 2018. He has great arm talent and athleticism.

Although going back to school has hurt some passers’ draft stocks (see Matt Leinart or Matt Barkley), it did not harm Andrew Luck’s. 

3. Kyler Murray: Ten years ago, when NFL teams weren't as interested in short QBs, Murray probably would not be a first-round pick. Instead, the 5-foot-10 QB, a standout baseball player, likely would be playing in the Oakland A’s system. (Drafted by the A's with the ninth overall pick, he signed a deal with the team in June 2018.) Desperate for college-style innovations, the league views Murray as plenty viable now. After a ludicrous 4,000/1,000 season in his lone campaign as Oklahoma’s starter, Murray looks primed to go to Arizona with the No. 1 overall pick.

Baker Mayfield’s successor lapped his 2019 prospect peers in facing down pressure, with Pro Football Focus rating him miles ahead of this class in that department. Will Murray excel in the league? In the NFL, passing windows are much tighter than in college.  

The Heisman Trophy winner, whom Daniel Jeremiah and former GM Scot McCloughan would have ranked behind the top 2018 QB prospects, benefited from having plenty of NFL-level talent around him.  

4. Jake Fromm: He threw only 307 passes last season — 72nd in Division I-FBS. But the second-year starter at Georgia was especially accurate, completing 67.4 percent of his passes, a five-point increase from 2017. He also threw for 30 TDs. In the SEC, he competed against some of the best defenses in the country.

Fromm, who doesn't have the arm strength of Tagovailoa and Herbert, lit up Alabama in the SEC championship game (304 passing yards, three TDs). The 6-foot-2 pocket passer will be a third-year starter in 2019, and perhaps he'll get more opportunities to show off his passing skills.

More of the same accuracy numbers may elevate Fromm into next year’s top 10. If the Bengals, Buccaneers, Titans and Raiders skip on the top 2019 QBs, all may take a look at Fromm in 2020.

5. Dwayne Haskins: The Ohio State standout shows how faulty advance projections can be. Not viewed as a first-rounder at this time last year, Haskins soared onto the radar via his 50-touchdown, eight-interception season. A four-star prospect coming out of high school, Haskins showed off his strong arm and and scorched Big Ten competition. His sophomore season was among the most trajectory-changing college campaigns in recent memory. Haskins’ stock may be volatile, but a first-round dap with Roger Goodell seems a certainty.

Haskins' numbers against pressure and his 15 turnover-worthy plays, a Pro Football Focus metric, reveal he would be best served by extensive acclimation time. Perhaps he joins other one-year college starters, such as Bears QB Mitch Trubisky, in successfully transitioning to the NFL

6. K.J. Costello: Another Pac-12 passer who decided to return for his senior season, Costello joins Fromm as a bit of a throwback. The Stanford signal-caller might have been a more coveted 10 years ago, when NFL teams were less enthralled by quarterbacks in non-pro-style offenses.

David Shaw’s pro-friendly attack makes it easier to evaluate his passers. Remember, in Andrew Luck, he sent one of the best prospects of this generation to the NFL. Less mobile and with a tendency to revert to side-arm mechanics, Costello doesn't measure up to Luck as a prospect. But the 6-foot-5 QB has a strong arm, a quick release and was second in Pac-12 passer rating in 2018. He threw for 29 touchdowns last season, second-most in Stanford history.

7. Drew Lock: A four-year starter but with only one season with a completion percentage above 60, Lock is a significant risk and he may be slipping on draft boards. Had Lock declared last year, he would not have been a first-round pick. 

But the Missouri prospect posted PFF’s second-best rating (to Murray) when throwing on the run and the best mark on deep passes. He has visited with every quarterback-needy team as well with the Green Bay Packers. The 6-foot-4 QB will be one of the more interesting names to monitor during the first round.  

8. Will Grier: In an era when NFL teams are no longer spooked by college-system quarterbacks, the West Virginia QB seems like an intriguing flier. Look for him to be a big name on Day 2 Friday. Grier, who finished fourth in the Heisman voting last year, threw for 71 touchdowns the past two seasons. He also tied Lock in PFF’s “big-time throw” metric (33 last season), and although the Florida transfer's throwing motion is not exactly textbook, his production and prototypical stature make him a possible draft-and-develop player, perhaps in Carolina. 

9. Jacob Eason: He's not a lock to come out after the 2019 season, but the Washington quarterback has promise. Given the keys to Georgia’s offense in 2016, Eason saw Fromm replace him in 2017. He transferred and sat out last season. A former five-star recruit, the pro-style QB will be closely monitored in his debut season with the Huskies.

10. Daniel Jones: Every QB-needy team booked a pre-draft visit with the 6-foot-5 ex-Blue Devil. He was coached by David Cutcliffe, who mentored Peyton and Eli Manning in college. Jones threw for 423 yards and five TDs against Temple in the Independence Bowl, but he was wildly inconsistent at Duke. He had substandard supporting talent in college, so it will be fascinating to see if a team gambles on him in the first round.