The Vikings' latest 2026 compensatory pick projections aren't ideal

There was a point in this NFL offseason, after the initial wave of free agency had settled down, where the Vikings were projected to receive two premium compensatory picks in the 2026 draft, and even had a chance at landing a third. Now, midway through the 2025 season, their comp pick outlook has worsened by a good bit.

For those who may not be aware, the league awards comp picks to teams who lose more qualifying free agents than they gain in the previous year's free agency run, based on a complicated formula that incorporates dollar amounts on contracts, playing time, and more. It's a real factor in roster-building that Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, Kevin O'Connell, and the Vikings' front office pay close attention to.

In the most recent NFL draft, the Vikings were awarded the 97th overall pick — the highest comp pick available — because they let Kirk Cousins depart in free agency after the 2023 season. (They eventually traded down to 102 and selected Tai Felton). Next year, they're all but guaranteed to get the 97th pick once again, this time for letting Sam Darnold depart and sign a big contract with the Seahawks.

After that is where things get interesting for those who follow the Vikings' comp pick situation closely. Over the Cap's Nick Korte is the premier expert in this niche field; his updated projections prove to be quite accurate year after year. And after previously projecting the Vikings to earn a fourth-round comp pick on top of the third-rounder, while noting they had a chance at landing a seventh-rounder as well, Korte now projects the Vikings to only have the one.

What changed? This season has actually had some positive developments for the Vikings in terms of the comp pick formula, with Daniel Jones winning the starting QB job in Indianapolis (not to mention playing extremely well) and Cam Robinson being traded to the Browns after losing his starting job in Houston. Both of those players getting significant offensive snaps is important.

But there have been other, less ideal developments as well. Because of Blake Cashman's injury and Ivan Pace Jr.'s struggles, Eric Wilson has played far more snaps than anticipated coming into this season. That has him qualifying as a compensatory free agent in Korte's current projections, which cancels out the fourth-rounder the Vikings could get from Jones. Also, two borderline qualifiers who they lost in free agency, Trent Sherfield and Johnny Mundt, aren't quite playing enough with their new teams (the Broncos and Jaguars, respectively) to factor in. Sherfield was seen as the player with a realistic chance to land the Vikings a third comp pick at one point.