I know fans are sick of what has become the Buccaneers’ most despised annual tradition – the midseason losing streak. As it stands now, the Bucs have lost two games in a row for the first time this season, but have just one win in the last five weeks. That starts to wear on you when this time last month there was talk of the number one seed in the NFC and your quarterback being the front runner for the MVP.
Now, however, you’re watching your team stare down the barrel of a loaded gun named the Los Angeles Rams while the Carolina Panthers – yes, the Dave Canales led Carolina Panthers – are breathing down your neck. Not only do the Bucs need to win this week against the Rams to help their chances of a better playoff seed, but now they have to stave off the Panthers who are one of the hotter teams in football with Rico Dowdle at running back and a suddenly surging Tet McMillan.
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That said – if the Bucs lose Sunday night in Los Angeles, it still won’t be panic time. Yes, you’re going to have detractors, nay-sayers, and the “Fire Bowles” mob screaming about how the Buccaneers are fake and can’t beat good teams – but you’re still looking at a team that hasn’t been at full strength all season. You can only use injuries as a reason for poor performances for so long – but at what point does it stop being true and start becoming an excuse? That’s what I can’t seem to get a grasp on. This offense has not been executed anywhere close to its original intention and it likely won’t until the postseason when every guy is back – and as long as you don’t lose anyone else.
It’s the defense that is starting to show that they were outperforming their true abilities, because honestly it’s hard to figure out what this defense really is. One minute they’re an opportunistic bunch that takes the ball away and brings the quarterback to the turf. The next minute, they’re allowing 40+ yard touchdowns in bunches and leaving guys wide open down the field. Some say it’s a coaching issue, some say it’s an execution issue – I say it’s both.
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My big problem with the defense right now is the fact that Bowles keeps dropping edge rushers into coverage. Yes, it opened up opportunities for blitzing players to get to the quarterback – but teams have seen it enough that they’re waiting on it and exposing it.
Yaya Diaby shouldn’t be in coverage against Tyrell Shavers 30 yards down the field.
Anthony Nelson shouldn’t be in coverage against James Cook 15 yards down the field.
Those guys are paid to get after the quarterback, not cover pass catchers ten times faster than them.
According to PFF, Yaya Diaby has a coverage grade this season of 38.4 and is coming off a season worst grade of 26.3. If there was a corner or a safety with those grades, you’d be screaming to cut him. Anthony Nelson? A grade of 50.9. These aren’t the guys you want covering speedy running backs and slot receivers.
And I get it – this strategy has worked most of the year to give guys like Jacob Parrish, Tykee Smith, Jamel Dean, and Antoine Winfield Jr lanes to blitz through and catch the offense off guard – but it’s not catching them off guard anymore. The opposing offense is looking for it, waiting on it, and exposing it for explosive plays. And if you’re trying to do that same stuff against the Rams this week, you’re begging for more 40, 50, 60 yard touchdown plays against an offense that has Davante Adams, Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, and Blake Corum.
And Todd Bowles is a smarter defensive mind than I am or anyone reading this is – but that also means he’s smart enough to see what we’re seeing. He’s smart enough to know that if something isn’t working anymore, they probably shouldn’t keep doing it.
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Worst case scenario is that the Bucs lose to the Rams and the Panthers win in San Francisco, propelling the Panthers into first place in the NFC South – and even if that happens, Buccaneers fans shouldn’t panic. The most important thing is to get – and stay – healthy. They have an easy path the rest of the way as they gradually get more players back – Bucky Irving, Chris Godwin Jr, Luke Haggard, Ben Bredeson, Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan, Haason Reddick, maybe even Calijah Kancey – so that they could be hitting their stride when the postseason rolls around. Then, it doesn’t matter how you got there, just
that you got there. Because at that point, no team in the playoffs has seen an offense that can do what this one will be able to do.
There won’t be anywhere close to enough film to know how to stop the Evans/Godwin/Egbuka/McMillan receiving combo with a Bucky/Tucker/White trio out of the backfield. The possibilities, the mismatches are endless.
Couple tweaks here and there on defense, health on offense, and this still has all the makings of a championship caliber team that Bucs fans believed it could be back in July and August. Don’t let a little bump in the road derail the entire trip. It’s just a setback – and this too shall pass
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