This AFC Rival Could be Next Year's 2025 Chiefs

One-score wins are a statistic that generally regresses toward the mean from season to season. In 2024, the Chiefs went 11-0 in those games, which was evident in their +59-point differential, which was the worst for any team in NFL history with fewer than four losses in a season. Kansas City went 1-9 in the similar game scripts, which is all you needed to know about how the season played out.

This season, the Broncos' path to victory was eerily similar, as Denver went 11-2 in one-possession contests during the regular season, ending the season with a +90-point differential. You have questioned someone's football IQ if they told you the Chiefs' record in one-score games would be the reciprocal of their 2024 output in that department.

When assessing the data heading into the offseason and applying that information to predictions for next season, it would not be ridiculous to suggest Denver could face similar issues in 2026.

Unnecessary Noise

While this data point does not correlate, internal negative noise from thin air is never beneficial for a team, and in this instance, is quite perplexing, as Denver evidently was one of the best teams in the NFL in 2025.

It all stemmed from Bo Nix suffering a fractured ankle in the divisional round win over the Buffalo Bills. The 25-year-old quarterback sustained the injury in the waning moments of the game, which was obviously season-ending, catapulting Jarrett Stidham as the starting quarterback in the conference championship game.

This is the first instance in which Head Coach Sean Payton faced backlash, as the 62-year-old coach elected to go for it on fourth down from the Patriots' 14-yard line in the second quarter, instead of taking the field goal, which would have presumably given the Broncos a 10-0 lead. As everyone who watched the game knows, Denver would fail on the fourth-down conversion and never score another point the rest of the way.

Fast forward to Tuesday, and while Payton addressed the media, he revealed that Nix's injury was inevitable, stating that the second-year quarterback had a preexisting condition that made what transpired likely.

• "What was found was a condition that was predisposed," Payton said. "It wasn't a matter of if, it was a matter of when. When you look at the play and you're trying to evaluate it - the doctor, the operating surgeon said that this was going to happen sooner than later."

On Wednesday, Nix shared his thoughts on Payton's comments, which did not correlate with the veteran head coach's messaging.

• "I don't think he really should be sharing how many surgeries I've had in the past, to be honest with you, he doesn't really know that," Nix said. "But it's going to be to get back to work. Nothing really that concerns me, nothing that scares me moving forward."

Coaching Staff Changes

Additionally, Payton took drastic measures, firing offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, Wide Receivers Coach Keary Colbert, and Cornerbacks Coach Addison Lynch.

Lombardi, who had spent only one year in Denver before his dismissal, provided an interesting reason for his firing.

• "I don’t think it’s ever a surprise you could tell [Payton] was in one of those moods where he felt like some changes needed to be made, and I guess he decided one of those was me," Lombardi said. "I’ve been around him long enough to kind of read the tea leaves.”

Not a good week for Payton, and suddenly the vibes surrounding the Broncos heading into the offseason appear toxic, despite reaching the conference championship games as the No. 1 seed in the AFC.