This will determine the winner between the 49ers and Rams on Thursday

Mac Jones has been cleared by team doctors and is off the injury report.

The advantages of Jones are that he’s faster to get the ball out than Brock Purdy, has the stronger arm to throw into tight windows, and has excelled in two-minute drives. The downside is he is still learning the offense, didn’t see open receivers against Arizona and checked down to Christian McCaffrey often, and may play with a knee brace that will limit his ability to run out of pressure.

The starters will be Demarcus Robinson, Skyy Moore, and Kendrick Bourne. Which means that McCaffrey could have his highest touches in a game this season.

In the run game, the offensive line has struggled, and McCaffrey misses George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk as blockers. The 49ers are 28th in rushing yards per game at 88, a steep drop from last year’s 127. The Rams defense ranks 10th against the run, giving up 98.5.

LA’s Byron Young leads the league in sacks with five, the beneficiary of offenses gearing up to stop Jared Verse. That pressure will lead the Niners to adopt a quick passing game using screens, flares, and slants to avoid the Rams pass rush.

In the red zone, the Niners will need touchdowns to keep pace with LA, but the running game has been inefficient. McCaffrey has 16 carries in the red zone for ten yards. He’s had red zone success as a receiver, but more runs need to go to Brian Robinson Jr. instead.

Kyle Shanahan needs to be less predictable in the call patterns. The Niners are last in the NFL in running plays on 1st down at 21.6%; they ran 34% of the time on 1st down last year. In the red zone though it’s flipped, the Niners run on first down consistently, usually McCaffrey.

Rams on Offense

Puka Nacua is tied for the NFL record in receptions through four games with 42 catches. He’s averaging over 125 yards per game. Meanwhile, Deommodore Lenoir is the only Niner DB with success this year. Renardo Green is dealing with a neck injury and ranks in the 110s out of 158 in coverage by PFF. Marques Sigle has given up a QB rating against over 142, Jason Pinnock 123. Sean McVay is likely to test rookie nickel Upton Stout with Nacua.

The Niners didn’t touch Trevor Lawrence last week  — five pressures, no sacks, and no quarterback hits in a game for the first time in a decade. Blitzes from Fred Warner were a step late in getting to Lawrence. Saleh may need to blitz with more speed to get quicker pressure on Stafford.

The passing game is Nacua with Davante Adams mixed in, forming one of the NFL’s best trios at QB and the two WRs. Stafford has had an excellent year, throwing for 375 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s comeback win over the Colts.

One weakness is passing in the red zone, which focuses on Adams, who has only two catches on nine targets. The two catches were touchdowns, though.

The run game with Kyren Williams is a volume attack; historically, he doesn’t get many explosive runs. Williams has 68 carries for 303 yards with a long of 15. He ranks 7th in the league in rushing. The Niners rank 17th against the run, giving up 115.5 yards per game.

Prediction (3-1)

The injury to Nick Bosa is magnified in this matchup. Stafford to Nacua and Adams while the Niners get no pressure upfront plus a vulnerable secondary is a dangerous mix.

Saleh played soft zone against Jacksonville and will need to be more aggressive against the Rams, but that puts the safeties at risk deep. He will need to blitz more frequently; he won’t have a choice if the front four can’t apply pressure. Since Williams isn’t a breakaway back, I’d turn to Dee Winters as the primary blitzer.

I expect the Rams to feature Nacua heavily in this game and take shots with Adams deep. The key for the Niners is to prevent touchdowns in the red zone.

For the Niners, I expect Shanahan to deploy a horizontal passing game with a metric ton of touches for McCaffrey. Shanahan will need to be more willing to give carries to Robinson in the red zone.

I see the Niner defense struggling to beat the Rams at the line and in the secondary, and also having difficulty dealing with the Rams front four. There are too many injuries to key starters at the same time for the Niners to compete with one of the NFL’s best this year.

Rams 34 49ers 16