Three bold predictions for Dolphins vs. Jets on Monday Night Football — Someone's defense finally forces a turnover plus a final score prediction

Dolphins safety Minkah Fitzpatrick logs the Dolphins defense's first interception of 2025

Yikes! Three games and no turnovers — let alone just interceptions. That's a great data point to underscore the struggles of this defense, which has not been dictating terms nearly often enough. So why does the breakthrough come this week? Miami's nickel situation is in more flux amid an injury to rookie Jason Marshall Jr. and I refuse to believe this team is taking Cornell Armstrong seriously as a solution to that position. I think we see more of Minkah in the nickel, where his eyes and instincts could help him find the ball against Justin Fields and a modest group of pass catchers outside of Garrett Wilson.

Tua Tagovailoa does not turn the ball over for the first time since Week 16 of the 2024 season

Listen. The miscues have been crippling. They've cost Miami the chance to tie or win the game the last two weeks. And the performance against the Colts in Week 1 was catastrophic. Tagovailoa has not been good and readily admitted this week that he has not been playing to his own standard. This has been a player that the masses have always loved to pile on for — but the criticism has been warranted thus far in 2025.

I simply choose to believe that a 4.5% interception rate is going to stand as the volume of attempts grows. It's twice his career rate. Look for Miami to run the ball at an even higher clip this week than last and help create the conflict that's been missing from opposing defenses far too often.

The Dolphins defense takes Anthony Weaver's call to heart and sacks Justin Fields five times — but gives up 75+ rushing yards to the quarterback in the process

Fields has a career sack rate of nearly 12% of drop backs. That number is...healthy. Fields has been sacked three times in his playing time thus far and is returning from concussion protocol in a primetime spot. Surely he'll want to make some big plays happen?

Defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver challenged his defense to embrace "violence" this week — I suspect that they'll heed his call and have success on early downs to help force obvious passing situations. I'm looking at Chop Robinson, Jaelan Phillips, and linebacker Willie Gay Jr. here. But with the added urgency, I suspect Fields will also pop some chunk runs with his legs outside of structure. Miami has been pretty weak there in recent years.

Final Score Prediction

Let's start with this. There will be no tie. The Packers and Cowboys have us covered on that front. I do think that Miami is going to end up winning this contest at home. The defense has things to build on from the second-half of the Bills game and the Dolphins, with a fresh game script, should be able to again establish some success with their ground game. They'll need it.

Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle may not set records for catches or yards in this game, but I think they'll give the Dolphins the chunk plays they need to stack on top of what is trending towards an effective run game. That, plus a presumed change in their turnover fortunes, makes the difference.

Miami Dolphins - 26 :: New York Jets - 20

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