Three outcomes of Steelers’ T.J. Watt holdout

Outcome 1 – Steelers sign Watt to a record-breaking extension. 

The most likely outcome of the Watt holdout is a massive new deal. The Steelers are likely to pay Watt more than the $40 million per year that Myles Garrett received from the Browns last March. 

In 2021, Watt held in (he showed up to avoid being fined, but avoided the practice field until a new deal was complete); however, with a newborn at home, it remains to be seen whether he will show up at Latrobe this summer. 

The engine of the Steelers’ defense is the outside linebackers. Since drafting Watt in 2017, he has led the league in sacks with 108 and forced fumbles with 33. 

Outcome 2 – The Steelers trade Watt

An unlikely but not impossible option. Few would have predicted Minkah Fitzpatrick would have been traded last month for Jalen Ramsay and Jonnu Smith; however, the Steelers are building a roster to win now. This is most clearly demonstrated by the big-name additions of DK Metcalf and Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is one of a number of veteran players getting to the end of their careers. For this reason, trading Watt makes the least sense. 

Outcome 3 – Watt plays out his current contract.

I would categorise this outcome as highly unlikely. The Steelers tend to look after their franchise stars, even late in their career. We can look back at last year at Cam Heyward’s two-year extension despite his age, another example would be the extension of veteran center Maurkice Pouncey in 2019. Whilst there are a number of reports stating the two sides aren’t close to an agreement, a new deal is the best outcome for both parties.

Bonus option – Watt sits out the season, refusing to play without a new contract.

Whilst this option is extremely unlikely, it wouldn’t be the first time that a Steelers star has refused to take the field due to their contract situation. Steelers fans will remember Le’Veon Bell sat out the entire 2018 season. We all know how that played out for both parties.

In terms of when there is to the T.J. Watt holdout, that is slightly more challenging. Watt is due to earn just over $21 million this season. In 2025, this is far below his value. I would expect this to conclude during training camp, which is now only one week away.