The Green Bay Packers will be looking for their first road win of the season when they face the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. Including running back Josh Jacobs, here are three reasons why they’ll get it.
Last year, Cardinals running back James Conner rushed for 1,094 yards, averaged 4.6 yards per carry, added 47 receptions and scored nine touchdowns. He’s on injured reserve following a season-ending foot injury.
In his place entered Trey Benson, a third-round pick last year. He averaged 5.5 yards per carry to start this season before a knee injury sent him to injured reserve.
A next man up, Emeri Demercado, who turned a 72-yard touchdown against the Titans into a 71-yard run and infamous fumble, is out with an ankle injury.
Entering Sunday, these are the Cardinals’ leading rushers: quarterback Kyler Murray, 173 yards; Benson, 160 yards; Conner, 95 yards; Demercado, 90 yards. If Murray is out with a foot injury, the Cardinals will line up against Green Bay without all four.
Arizona’s backfield will be headed by Michael Carter, who has averaged 3.1 yards on his 28 carries, and Zonovan “Bam” Knight, who has averaged 3.0 yards on his 15 carries.
Green Bay’s run defense is one of the best in the NFL. It ranks first with 73.0 rushing yards allowed per game – Dallas is the only team to hit 100 – and fourth with 3.58 yards allowed per carry. It’s got injury issues, too, with defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt and defensive end Lukas Van Ness out with injuries.
Still, the combination of Green Bay’s defensive line and fast-flowing linebackers, paired with the carnage in the Cardinals’ backfield, should put this game entirely on backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett.
Brissett is a quality, experienced quarterback, and he’s got premier playmakers with Marvin Harrison and Trey McBride, but a one-dimensional offense should play into the hands of the Packers’ pass rush, which hasn’t put up great sack numbers but is having an outsized impact on games by forcing almost nothing but quick passes.
“If they do that, they’re not going to score a lot of points,” Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley said. “The Bengals threw the ball like 45 times for a little over 200 yards. You’re not going to score points doing that.”
Especially if you can’t run the ball.
Josh Jacobs was preaching from the mountaintop that it takes three or four weeks to get a running game going. Sure enough, the Packers’ vaunted running game, which struggled to gain feet, let alone yards, to start the season, got going in the second half of Week 4 at Dallas and was superb against Cincinnati last week.
Jacobs carried 18 times for 93 yards and two easy touchdowns. It’s not just Jacobs, of course. Jacobs gained 11 yards before contact in Week 1, 12 yards in Week 2, minus-8 yards in Week 3 and 13 yards in Week 4. Against Cincinnati, Jacobs gained 26 yards before contact. That allowed him to get up to speed and build momentum, making one of the toughest running backs to tackle even tougher to tackle.
“It feels good,” Jacobs said after the game. “It feels good as a runner to be able to feel like you’re dominating, and that’s always a thing that you can always feel, especially on offense when the defense starts to get tired of you hitting them, starts to get tired of you going right at them. That’s something that we definitely felt.”
Arizona’s run defense, which features linebacker Mack Wilson, safety Budda Baker and ageless defensive tackle Calais Campbell, is decent. It ranks 13th in rushing yards allowed per game and 15th in rushing yards allowed per carry. However, they’ve given up 20 runs of 10-plus yards, the 11th-most.
Assuming Jacobs plays, this could be another game where the run game imposes its will.
There’s been a lot of talk about fourth quarters this season. Green Bay’s defense, which has been impenetrable in the first quarter and is giving up less than eight points per game in the first three quarters, is allowing a league-worst 12.0 points per game in the fourth quarter.
Green Bay’s defense faded late in the upset loss at Cleveland and couldn’t get a stop in the tie at Dallas. Last week against Cincinnati, the Bengals had 21 net yards and one first down on its first four possessions. In the second half, the Bengals went touchdown, field goal, touchdown to hang around far too long.
“The first half … was awesome, watching our guys fly around. It was really, really inspiring football,” defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley said. “I think they went three-and-out three of their first four drives. We’re getting the ball back to the offense like that (snaps his fingers). That’s what we need to do in all four quarters.”
Could this be the week in which the Packers slam the door with that elusive four-quarter performance? Arizona’s offense ranks 29th in fourth-quarter scoring with just 4.3 points per game.
The reality is the Packers’ defense is too talented let what’s happened late in games be a recurring issue.
“I just feel like there’s a drop of level of play towards the end of the game,” defensive end Micah Parsons said. “I hit on that with the guys and I’ll keep that private, but we alone have to be better at that point. We emphasized it this week. We had a great practice week. I’m excited to see it in the game.”
For safety Xavier McKinney, the key is starting the second half fast so opponents can’t build momentum.
“Sh**, we’ve just got to execute better coming out of the half,” he said. “I think definitely the biggest thing, I think kind of what teams have been doing if they win the toss, they’re trying to get the ball coming out of the half, so our defense is out there coming out of the half, because we haven’t been that great coming out of the half all year.
“We just got to make sure that we go out there and execute what’s being called and just having that energy. Somebody got to pop it off, somebody got to get us going. That’s what it is.”
On the other side of the ball, Arizona’s defense also ranks 29th in the fourth quarter with 10.3 points allowed per game. Bad on offense and bad on defense, the Cardinals have the worst fourth-quarter scoring differential. With their four consecutive losses by a total of nine points, the fourth quarters are why they are in dire straits.
“We’re doing a lot of good things, hence why we’re not getting blown out,” Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon said this week. “We’ve been in these close games now. To win them, we have to do it a little bit better than we’ve been doing it, all three phases.”
Offensively, Green Bay is second in fourth-quarter scoring. If the defense finally follows suit, it could be the pathway to a lot more than a victory on Sunday.
Said Parsons: “I’m excited to try and go prove it on the road.”
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