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Chicago Bears running back D'Andre Swift ranks in the top 10 in yards per carry. Daniel Bartel-Imagn Images

Three Reasons Why Packers Will Lose to Bears

Originally posted on Green Bay Packers on SI
By Bill Huber | Last updated Dec 6, 2025 11:30 AM ET

For the Green Bay Packers to win the NFC North and earn a home playoff game, they’ll have to beat the Chicago Bears on Sunday. Being a game-and-a-half behind in the standings with four games to play probably would be too tall an order.

The Bears, who have won at least nine of their first 12 games for the first time since 2010, are a formidable opponent. Here are three reasons why they will win Round 1 of the NFL’s most famous rivalry.

1. Powerhouse Offensive Line, Running Game

Last season, quarterback Caleb Williams spent most of his rookie season running for his life. So, the Bears gave him some help.

A lot of help.

They traded for two-time All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney and former Pro Bowl right guard Jonah Jackson. In free agency, they signed the best center on the market, Drew Dalman.

Problem solved.

Along with standout right tackle Darnell Wright, the Bears’ offensive line is protecting Williams and opening holes in the running game. Since Week 5, the Bears are No. 1 in the NFL in total offense and their rushing attack is the best in the league by a rather ridiculous 27.8 yards per game.

For the season, Chicago is second in rushing yards per game and fifth in rushing yards per carry. It is No. 1 with 54 runs of 10-plus yards.

Meanwhile, the Bears went from last in sack percentage allowed to seventh.

The power of Chicago’s offensive line was on full display last Friday in Philadelphia. Running backs D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai each had 125-plus rushing yards and one touchdown. That came against an Eagles defense featuring Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter on the defensive line and All-Pro Zack Baun at linebacker.

The Packers, meanwhile, have perhaps the most unheralded group of defensive tackles for any playoff contender. With Devonte Wyatt on season-ending injured reserve, the Packers will face Chicago’s powerful front with Colby Wooden, Karl Brooks and rookies Warren Brinson and Nazir Stackhouse. They added about 700 pounds of beef to the front this week; perhaps Jordon Riley can help vs. the Bears.

“It’s really sad what happened,” defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley said of Wyatt. “That’s football. That’s why you can’t take for granted being out there every snap, giving it everything you have. I love the guy and we wish him a fast recovery and we’re hopeful he’ll be back for OTAs and be ready to go again.

“But like we’ve done all year – like he was out earlier in the season – those young guy, they stepped up and they’re going to have to step up again. We’re going to play a bunch of teams down the stretch that are going to run the ball, but when you get guys like Brinson and Stackhouse, who are the younger guys that are forced to play and develop probably sooner, they’ve gotten those game reps and they’ll be ready to go.

Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

“I think Karl and Colby have played really, really well this year, so we’re going to rely on them more. It’s going to be all four of those guys and we’ll find a way to get it done.”

How? The Eagles’ powerful defensive front held Josh Jacobs to 74 yards on 21 carries in Week 10. That was part of a stretch of four consecutive games in which the Eagles allowed less than 105 rushing yards and less than 4.0 yards per carry.

The Bears ran over the Eagles, anyway. They are capable of running over the Packers, too.

“Obviously, they’re 9-3 for a reason,” Wooden said. “So, we’ve got to go and do our job. We know it’s going to be a physical game. Starts up front, always. So, we’ve just got to go play good ball, be technically and fundamentally sound.”

The Bears ran the ball 47 times against the Eagles. They might roll out the same game plan to test Green Bay’s potentially vulnerable defensive line and keep Williams out of the sights of Micah Parsons.

“If a team wants to come in and run the ball 35 times, you tell me what that is. It’s disrespectful,” Parsons said. “They’re saying we’re going to come punch you in the mouth; there’s nothing you’re going to do about it. That’s all this is.

“You’ve got to earn the respect of your opponent. ‘OK, we can’t run the ball.’ So now, good, you can play my game, and that’s getting after the passer. So, it’s like I’ve got to earn my respect out there. We all do, really. It can’t just be me. Got to be all 11.”

2. Turnovers Galore

The big matchup this week is easy to pinpoint.

No team forces more turnovers than the Bears. No team takes better care of the football than the Packers.

Entering Week 14, the Bears have forced a league-high 26 turnovers. That’s four more than any other team. They’ve done it through the air with a league-leading 17 interceptions. And they’ve done it by recovering nine fumbles.

Safety Kevin Byard leads the NFL with six interceptions. Cornerback Nahshon Wright is tied for the position-group lead with five interceptions.

Both are remarkable stories.

Byard is 32. No player with 10-plus years of experience has intercepted seven passes in a season since Charles Woodson for the Packers in 2011.

Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

“Very, very intelligent football player. Obviously very talented, too,” coach Matt LaFleur said of Byard. They were together with the Titans in 2018. “You’re not going to fool him at all. He does a really good job holding disguises, knowing where he needs to get to, is is able to anticipate routes and route concepts. That’s a big reason why he has six interceptions on the season, leading the league. He’s a guy I’ve got a ton of respect for.”

Wright, a third-round pick in 2021, had one interception, five passes defensed, zero forced fumbles and zero fumble recoveries in his entire career. This year, he has five interceptions, 10 passes defensed, one forced fumble and three fumble recoveries. The reigning NFC Defensive Player of the Month is looking to become the sixth player this century with a takeaway in six consecutive games.

He has thrived under the tutelage of Bears defensive backs coach and passing-game coordinator Al Harris, the former Packers cornerback.

“He’s always believed in me, and that goes a long way,” Wright told reporters in Chicago this week. “I texted him yesterday and I just told him I appreciate him more than he knows. Because teams gave up on me in a sense.

“It is cool to have someone like that who believes in you. This is now my third team, and he's still been there every step of the way checking on me. It's definitely been a crazy journey that we've been on, and I hope to continue to be with him and finish out my career with him. It has definitely been crazy.”

Quarterback Jordan Love has thrown only three interceptions this season. He will not be able to take many chances this week.

“Their DBs are aware of the ball and they’re making plays when it is in the air,” Love said. ‘So, obviously a great group of DBs over there, but it just comes down to us, being smart with the decisions and take care of it at all times.”

3. Big on Third Down

The Bears have the ability to control the ball and keep Green Bay’s offense glued to its frozen bench.

Offensively, because they run the ball so well, the Bears are fifth on third down with a 43.9 percent conversion rate. Green Bay’s defense is only 17th at 38.5 percent.

Defensively, Chicago is sixth in third-down defense, allowing only a 36.2 percent conversion rate. It will pose a significant challenge to Green Bay’s top-ranked third-down offense, which moves the chains 49.3 percent of the time.

The Bears’ defense is bad on paper, ranking 30th in yards per play, 30th in rushing yards per play and 28th in passing yards per play. The pass defense is deceiving, though. Pro Bowl cornerback Jaylon Johnson and veteran slot Kyler Gordon returned to the lineup last week. Johnson has played in only two games this season and Gordon only in three.

The power of Chicago’s running game can set it up for long drives. Chicago’s healthy and playmaking secondary can give the ball back to the offense.

It could be a killer combination on a cold day at Lambeau Field.

This article first appeared on Green Bay Packers on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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