Three Reasons Why Packers Will Lose to Steelers Tonight

The Green Bay Packers will face a big challenge on Sunday night at the Pittsburgh Steelers. In a game surrounded by the hype of Aaron Rodgers’ first game against his former team, here are three reasons why the Packers will lose this showdown between division-leading teams.

1. Can Packers Stop Aaron Rodgers?

For most of 15 years, the Packers had the advantage in just about every game because of Aaron Rodgers. He was the best quarterback on the field on most Sundays. Therefore, the Packers won most Sundays.

The 41-year-old Rodgers might not be better than in-his-prime Jordan Love, but he’s still a quality starting quarterback.

The most important factor in Rodgers’ favor for this game is his experience. He’s seen every defense imaginable. There’s nothing that defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley can conjure up that Rodgers hasn’t seen or beaten.

The big key is the strength of Green Bay’s pass defense has been its pass rush. However, Rodgers isn’t going to be a sitting duck, like the Cardinals’ Jacoby Brissett last week. Rodgers’ average time to throw is 2.58 seconds, which is just behind Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa and just ahead of Cincinnati’s Joe Flacco, who diced up the Green Bay secondary during the second half at Lambeau Field a couple weeks ago.

The last three games, the Packers have allowed the fifth-worst passer rating. To be sure, Dallas’ Dak Prescott is better than Rodgers and Flacco had the benefit of arguably the league’s best tandem of receivers. But Rodgers’ experience and style will mitigate what the Packers do best, which is rush the passer, and take advantage of what the Packers do worst, which is take away those quick completions.

Prescott crushed the Packers before the bye, Flacco almost rallied the Bengals after the bye and Brissett completed 14 consecutive passes and almost upset the Packers last week.

Hafley downplayed it all.

“Our secondary right now, in the NFL, has given up less pass yards per play than any secondary in the National Football League, and I don't think they get enough credit for that,” Hafley said. “Our secondary is No. 1 in the NFL in yards per pass play and I give them huge credit for that, along with the rush.”

He’s right. But the Packers must tighten their coverage so their pass rush can go to work.

2. Can Packers Stop T.J. Watt?

Did you ever hear the story about the 2017 NFL Draft, when then-general manager Ted Thompson could have drafted Wisconsin native and University of Wisconsin star T.J. Watt but instead traded back and drafted Kevin King?

Of course you have.

In one of the all-time blunders, Watt has been a sure-fire Hall of Famer with the Steelers. He’s been selected to seven consecutive Pro Bowls, with four first-team All-Pro selections. He led the NFL in sacks in 2020, 2021 and 2023, and led the NFL in forced fumbles in 2019 and 2024.

In his ninth season, Watt has 112 sacks, eight interceptions, 34 forced fumbles and 53 passes defensed. King, who played a position that should have produced interceptions and PBUs, finished his career with seven interceptions and 32 passes defensed.

So, statistically speaking, the player who was drafted to rush the passer provided better coverage than the player who was drafted to cover.

This will be a best-vs.-best matchup with Watt, who has four sacks this season, going against right tackle Zach Tom.

“You play a guy like T.J. Watt, you got to be ready for him. It’s going to be a great challenge,” offensive line coach Luke Butkus said. “Everybody knows where he’s going to line up. It’s going to be a challenge for Zach to get ready to block him but again it starts with our fundamentals, our sets, our footwork, our hands. He’s relentless in everything he does, so I’m looking forward to the challenge.”

Tom is a superb player. When he came back from an oblique injury against Cincinnati a couple weeks ago, he said he played like excrement. The reality is he only gave up one pressure in that game. But that’s all it takes for a player like Watt, who critically is No. 1 among active players in forced fumbles. Tom could be sensational but it only takes one snap to flip what could be a tightly contested game.

3. Can Jordan Love Perform Under Pressure?

T.J. Watt is a great pass rusher but he’s not the Steelers’ only pass rusher.

The Steelers rank sixth in sack percentage, their 22 sacks are divided among 11 players. Outside linebacker Nick Herbig leads the team with 4.5 sacks. Watt has four. Another former Wisconsin player, defensive tackle Keeanu Benton, has 2.5. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey has two. Rookie defensive tackle Derrick Harmon has two. Potential Hall of Fame defensive tackle Cameron Heyward has 1.5. Outside linebacker Alex Highsmith, who had 14.5 sacks and led the NFL with five forced fumbles in 2022, has 1.5, as well.

“I think he’s the lead dog but they’ve got a lot of rushers,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said of Watt. ‘Herbig’s been very impactful on the edge, obviously, Heyward inside, and some of the role players have done a great job, as well. They’ve got a really formidable front that does a great job not only in the pass game but in the run game, as well.”

The sacks aren’t so much the issue for Green Bay, which is a solid 11th in sack percentage allowed. It’s the pressure, and how quarterback Jordan Love responds.

According to Pro Football Focus, 37 quarterbacks have been pressured on at least 30 dropbacks. Love is last in completion percentage (34.5), last in yards per attempt (3.6) and 35th in passer rating (38.1). While he’s at least done a decent job in protecting the ball (one interception and 20th in turnover-worthy plays), he hasn’t made anyone pay.

“Obviously, you’ve got T.J. Watt, and he’s one of the best pass rushers in the NFL, but they’re really good across the board,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said. “I think their interior guys – Cam Heyward, obviously, gets a lot of pub, but the other guys I think are really good, too. And then you have Herbig and Highsmith on the other side, so the challenges are across the board with everyone they have in their pass rush.”

Pittsburgh will forever be synonymous with Blitzburgh. The Steelers have the fifth-highest blitz rate, according to Sharp Football, and the seventh-highest pressure rate, according to Pro Football Reference.

“They’re an aggressive defense,” Stenavich continued. “They’re going to challenge you, they’re going to play man coverage, they have Jalen Ramsey and (Joey) Porter, some really good DBs that are going to go up there and really challenge you and force you to beat them.

“So, a lot of times, if you don’t do a good job blocking up front, they’re going to get home before the receivers get open. So, it’s going to be a big challenge for us to win our one-on-one matchups, whether that’s blocking or down the field.”

Against the Cardinals last week, Love was pressured on 10 dropbacks. He completed one pass for 7 yards. From a clean pocket, he was 18-of-22.

“I think any defense when they’ve got a superstar edge rusher like that on the D-line, you’ve got to have a focus on where he is at all times and what he’s doing,” Love said of Watt. “It starts with him. They’ve got a really good D-line, as well.

“I think they’re really disruptive and I think they do a really good job of getting batted balls down, getting tips and things like that. They’re coached really well and then it just comes down to understanding what they’re in, are they in zone, are they in man, and trying to find ways to beat that.”

If the Packers can’t beat it, they won’t beat the Steelers.