Three running backs to avoid in fantasy football

With the NFL preseason coming to an end, fantasy football drafts are ramping up. Here are three running backs you should think twice about selecting in 12-team ESPN PPR redraft leagues when you're on the clock.

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans (ADP: 11.6)

Despite the Titans' offensive woes last season, Henry was still a dominant player for fantasy purposes, finishing as the RB4 both overall and in points per game.

However, ESPN is overpricing the 29-year-old (who isn’t much of a receiving back) in PPR leagues this season, ranking him as the platform's RB5 and the 10th-best player overall. For comparison, Henry's ADP on Sleeper is 16.1.

Although he averaged a hefty 21.8 carries on a weekly basis last season, Henry finally saw his workload begin to diminish after averaging 27.4 rushing attempts per game in 2021. Additionally, his 96.1 rushing yards per game marked his lowest average since 2018. 

A reduction in Henry's workload might become the norm as he enters his twilight years and since Tennessee added WR DeAndre Hopkins, it makes sense for the offense to throw more. Not to mention, the Titans spent a third-round pick on Tulane running back Tyjae Spears and it appears he'll have some role in the offense, as he impressed in the preseason. 

If you're picking 10th overall, it might be best to select a wide receiver such as Stefon Diggs and address the running back position in the second round with Nick Chubb or Tony Pollard. 

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals (ADP: 27.6)

Despite posting career highs in receptions (60) and receiving yards (441) last season, Mixon was unable to improve upon his RB4 finish from 2021. The veteran tailback showed signs of declining in 2022, averaging the fewest yards per game since his rookie year (58.1) and failing to top the 900-yard mark. 

Mixon is being ranked as ESPN's RB9, much higher than last season's finish, which seems absurd at this stage of his career. Although Mixon is the lead runner in a high-powered offense and won't have to deal with Samaje Perine stealing pass-catching work this fall, 2021 sixth-rounder Chris Evans is expected to fill the void as Cincinnati's third-down back.

Since Mixon regressed last season, even after receiving an increased pass-catching workload, it's hard to imagine he'll be more efficient with fewer opportunities. 

Perhaps the most alarming red flag about Mixon's 2022 season was how much his Week 9 performance inflated his end-of-season ranking. Mixon enjoyed a five-touchdown performance against the Carolina Panthers – his lone 100-yard rushing game of the season – resulting in a 55.1-point outing in PPR formats. The only other time Mixon recorded at least 20 PPR points last season came during Week 1.

At his current price, Mixon probably won’t be worth the investment you make.

Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks (ADP: 58.6)

Like Henry, Walker offers little receiving upside, which makes him a less-than-ideal selection in PPR formats, especially considering he won't see nearly the same volume that the Titans star does. After finishing as the RB17 in points per game as a rookie, Walker is being drafted as the RB18. 

While he should improve as a player in the real world, last season might have been Walker's fantasy ceiling after Seattle selected Michigan RB Zach Charbonnet in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Walker only averaged 1.8 receptions per game last season and will record even fewer in 2023, with Charbonnet expected to handle the receiving work. 

The addition of another decently high draft pick to the backfield of a team that was 22nd in rushing attempts last season (425) is a legitimate reason to worry about Walker's production. Plus, Seattle didn't pay quarterback Geno Smith $105 million or draft Ohio State wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba this offseason just to be a run-first offense. 

Unless Charbonnet or either wide receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett suffer long-term injuries, it's unlikely Walker lives up to his fifth-round price tag.