Tight End Day magic is real for Travis Kelce (even when the odds say it’s not

All in all, ten tight ends caught a touchdown on National Tight End Day, including two for Philadelphia’s Dallas Goedert, but the best is yet to come as both Kelce and the two-time All-Pro Zach Ertz will play at Arrowhead on Monday night. So what does that typically bode for Kelce?

Kelce and TE Day go hand-in-hand

Ever since the inaugural National Tight End Day in 2019, a little over a year after Kittle jokingly came up with it against the Detroit Lions, Kelce has dominated for the most part and added some stout numbers to his already record-breaking career.

Catching 75% of his targets (42 of 56) for 526 yards and 3 touchdowns in just 6 games on the holiday is impressive. Even more impressive are his last three, which all saw him reach 90 or more receiving yards on an 84.8% completion percentage and 2 of those 3 touchdowns.

Some National Tight End Days are more memorable than others, like his 179-yard receiving day against the Chargers back in 2023 when he caught all nine targets for 143 yards and a touchdown before halftime.

It’s important to add that on National TE Day, the Chiefs have a 4-2 record with three of those wins ending in at least 14-point victories for the Chiefs:

• A 43-16 victory at Denver (2020)
• A 44-23 win at San Francisco (2022)
• A 31-17 victory at L.A. Chargers (2023

So with all that in mind, Kelce and the Chiefs really enjoy celebrating National Tight End Day — even if they are a day late to the actual holiday party.

What's expected of Kelce on National TE Day?

So what if Kelce has shown up and shown out the last few years for his special holiday? That’s last year’s news and not this year’s headlines, right? Well, for what is likely Kelce’s final National Tight End Day, the many oddsmakers and fantasy football apps all seem to think Kelce should have a successful night, but not on par with his recent TE Day performances.

For starters, DraftKings places him and Rashee Rice as the only players on the field without a plus sign in front of their odds when it comes to “Anytime TD Scorer,” with Kelce at (-110) and Rice at (-105). But he’s also listed on DraftKings with an over/under of 42.5 yards, which is well below his 53.6 yards-per-game average. This is despite K.C. playing against a secondary that has given up the most yards per catch (12.1) and the second-worst coverage grade on PFF (45.9).

Also, most sportsbooks have Kelce’s catch number at 3.5 (Over -142 / Under +105) thanks to defenses keeping him at four catches or less in over half of Kansas City’s games so far this season. So the expectations seem to be that Kelce won’t have another huge game — but that could just be Vegas splitting the middle and seeing Rice take a bulk of the target share once again.

In fantasy football, it would appear Kelce is being undervalued or underrated as well, with some apps like Sleeper only predicting a mediocre 10.68 points in a PPR league. Unlike PFF rankings, these are based on previous matchups and their game history so far, which means Kelce’s best week ending as just the TE5 (Week 5 @ JAX) could be hindering his projections in fantasy.

No matter what Vegas or fantasy football “experts” predict for Kelce, it’s never just a normal game for him when it’s National Tight Ends Day (or the day after it). And if there’s one thing people seem to forget, it’s just how elite Kelce can appear on any given gameday, which definitely includes Monday Night Football games under the red-and-white spotlight in Arrowhead.

From everyone at Arrowhead Addict, Happy National Tight Ends Day!