Titans Projected to Land Second Straight First Overall Pick

Just one week into the season, ESPN's Football Power Index is already counting out the Titans. Tennessee's 20-12 loss proved to be a crucial one as their 0-1 left a team with just three-wins last season in a similar position. They still have plenty of time to put everything together, but it's no secret they have their work cut out for them.

ESPN's FPI is updated after each week of the NFL season. While half of the league sits at 0-1, their projections are made through a simulation of the remainder of the season. To keep things as realistic as possible, that simulation is done 10,000 times.

Their staff wrote, "Game probabilities are based primarily on the model's team ratings and game locations. The draft order is determined by the records the model projects for each team after 17 games, as well as each team's average draft position across the simulations."

Currently, the Titans have an average draft position of 6.6. That marks the lowest of the league. In total, only six teams had an ADP under 10. From there, the FPI looks at each's teams chances of earning the No. 1 pick, a top-five pick, as well as a top-10 pick.

Callahan's squad is clearly in a rebuilding period. While they'll have plenty of chances to win more than three-games this season, doing so could prevent them from earning another top-draft pick. Throughout the simulations, ESPN's FPI gives Tennessee an 80.1% chance of earning a top-10 pick in the 2026 draft.

Continuing to move down, the Titans have a 55.4% chance of earning a top-five pick. They are the only team to have higher than a 50% chance of drafting in the top-five. From there, things get interesting. Five teams are given a 10+ percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick, though the Titans lead the charge with their 16.2% chance. 2026 is another QB heavy field, so Ward's rookie season will determine the fate of who Tennessee decides to draft.