T.J. Watt 2025 IDP Outlook: Still a Force or Start of the Decline?

Before we go any further, can we agree that T.J. Watt has earned his spot in NFL royalty? The man didn’t just make a name for himself; he solidified himself as a terror for offensive coordinators everywhere. Since entering the league in 2017, he’s racked up 80-plus sacks, countless forced fumbles, and more QB pressures than a stock trader in the middle of a market crash.

But here’s the thing about edge rushers. No matter how dominant, few manage to outrun the universal truths of wear, tear, and age. At 31 years old heading into the new season, he might be battling his toughest opponent yet, not Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow, but the ticking clock.

Is Watt Losing His Edge?

Last season (2024), Watt’s numbers took a hit. By his standards, it was like seeing a lion nap through dinner. His total sacks, QB hits, and pressure rates all dropped compared to his earlier seasons. For most edge rushers, this would still be a borderline Pro Bowl campaign. For him? It raised eyebrows.

Here’s what we know:

• Sacks Are Down: Forget double-digits; Watt had fewer than 10 sacks last season.
• Efficiency Dips: His Pass Rush Win Rate wasn’t quite the “can’t miss” stat it used to be.
• Age is Creeping: At 31, most pass rushers start hitting that efficiency wall. Sure, there are exceptions (Reggie White, anyone?), but they’re rare.

Is this an indication that he is in decline? Maybe. Or perhaps opposing teams game-planned him so heavily that no one else on the Steelers’ front seven stepped up.

Why Watt is Still a Threat

But before you write Watt’s Hall of Fame resume in ink and push him into retirement, take a beat. Despite the dips in some stats, this guy didn’t exactly fall off a cliff. Even in a “down” year, Watt ranked as the #3 defensive lineman in fantasy points per game. Imagine what happens when he’s healthy and, dare I say it?- angry.

Here’s why we’re not burying T.J. Watt just yet:

• Volume Monster: He’s still playing a ridiculous number of snaps and sees plenty of pass-rush opportunities.
• High Football IQ: Watt isn’t just an athlete; he’s a thinker. He knows how to adapt his game as his physical gifts evolve.
• Steelers Defense Runs Through Him: Like his older brother J.J. in his prime, T.J. remains the heartbeat of his team’s defensive scheme.

And while you may not want to reach for Watt in your fantasy draft this year, letting him slip too far could be a costly mistake for your lineup.

What’s Next for T.J. Watt?

The 2025 season is shaping up to be pivotal for his legacy. He’s got the talent, he’s got the drive, but can he avoid the injury bug and capitalize on opportunities? The NFL will certainly test him, not just his body, but his ability to innovate and outthink his competition. Superstars don’t last forever, but they do leave enduring impressions.

Now, whether Watt will still be steamrolling offensive tackles and terrorizing QBs by Week 17 is yet to be seen. But one thing’s certain: underestimating him is a mistake teams will regret. If you blink, the T.J. Watt of old might just rear his head and remind you why he was once the NFL Defensive Player of the Year.

The Takeaway

T.J. Watt may not be putting up career-highs in sacks anymore, but don’t treat him like yesterday’s news. His football smarts, role in Pittsburgh’s defense, and overall volume make him a force to be reckoned with, even as he nudges closer to the twilight of his career.

And for fantasy managers? He may not be your top pick anymore, but if you’re looking for an edge rusher with upside who could still wreck a game or two, Watt’s your guy.