T.J. Watt Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

T.J. Watt to miss wild-card round

By Tommy Fradenburg | Last updated 1/9/24

The Pittsburgh Steelers weren't supposed to make the playoffs, but rode an elite defense and a steady hand from quarterback Mason Rudolph to a three-game win streak and the final wild-card spot.

They enter the postseason with the worst odds to win Super Bowl LVIII at +12000 per DraftKings and a miracle run is about to become even more difficult. Head coach Mike Tomlin announced on Tuesday that all-pro pass rusher T.J. Watt will miss Sunday's wild-card game at Buffalo.

Steelers’ HC Mike Tomlin ruled out TJ Watt for Pittsburgh’s wild-card matchup vs. the Bills.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 9, 2024

Watt leads the NFL with 19 sacks this season, but left Week 18's crucial win with a knee injury after his own player collided with him in the third quarter.

Watt's inability to take the field on Sunday is a crushing blow to a Steelers team that needs every break to go their way to keep the season alive, especially against Josh Allen and the surging Buffalo Bills.

TJ Watt -

Left Knee hyperextension

Doesn’t seem like enough force to cause an ACL tear but it remains a concern

Potential concerns for:
•mild sprain/bone bruise
•MCL sprain (can’t tell how much valgus there was on the hyperextension)
•ACL injury

Hoping just a sprain/bruise pic.twitter.com/kLjPJPoBHd
— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) January 6, 2024

Not only does Allen have one of the biggest arms of any quarterback in the NFL, he's also one of the strongest running quarterbacks, both on designed runs and improvised scrambles. An ideal counter for a quarterback like Allen is an elite defender like Watt, who can not only rush the passer but also drop into coverage or spy him to prevent Allen escaping for big gains on broken plays.

While on paper it looks like Buffalo should steamroll the Steelers, the Bills have shown this year that they're far from a perfect team. As recently as late November they were just a .500 team at 6-6, and technically entered Week 18 with a chance at missing the playoffs entirely.

But since the Week 13 bye, Buffalo is 5-0 with wins over Kansas City, Dallas and Miami.

Allen has still been far from perfect, with turnovers continuing to be his achilles heel. A game-wrecker like Watt is the ideal defender to force Allen into rushed decisions that can quickly turn into game-altering turnovers. Without Watt, Allen is much more likely to be comfortable in the pocket and have time to make the brilliant plays he's become known for.

Pittsburgh will likely be one-and-done in the playoffs. But at least Mike Tomlin kept his winning-season streak alive, right?

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