'TNF' best bets: SGP opportunities galore for Niners offense vs. Giants

Both DraftKings and FanDuel are offering risk-free SGPs for tonight. We need to find a way to attack this "Thursday Night Football" game with no skin off our back. 

Figuring out our TNF options for these sweat-free bets

At first glance, we're seeing a few vulnerabilities in this one. San Francisco's offense should truly be able to hum on all cylinders, as New York has struggled against the pass and against the run. That doesn't necessarily simplify things, but what it does is show us that we can explore this entire Niners offense.

The Giants conceivably should be able to get the ball to someone, San Francisco is among the league leaders in receptions allowed to both WRs and RBs, a 2022 trend that has followed them into the new year.

Some injury news to keep in mind: Saquon Barkley is out for the Giants and Brandon Aiyuk is a game-time decision for the 49ers.

OK, the stage is set, how do we want to play this? There are a few caveats to consider. Christian McCaffrey is in a smash spot, but he's coming off a game in which he played every single offensive snap. Is that rate really sustainable this early in the season on just a few days of rest? It feels like the answer to that question is no. Because of that gut feeling, we prefer attacking San Fran's backup Elijah Mitchell, who is fresh as can be in a great spot. Not only is the New York run defense getting gashed, but they're also allowing a ton of touchdowns to running backs.

Sweat-free bet No. 1 (+625 DraftKings)

• Mitchell 45+ yards
• Mitchell touchdown

As for our second look, we're liking some receiving yardage lines.

Deebo Samuel looks good to us against a struggling Giants secondary. Two Cardinals WRs popped off for 50+ last week, and the Niners certainly have the edge over an Arizona offense. Samuel has seen 16 targets through two weeks, going for 55 and 63 yards.

Matt Breida feels poised for some passing game involvement with Barkley out. Barkley has been on the receiving end of 11 targets already, and while we shouldn't expect the same type of volume, we should expect a few looks. The last time Barkley didn't play, Breida caught seven passes. His over/under tonight is just 11.5 yards, and San Francisco just watched RB Kyren Williams pile up 47 yards against them.

Darius Slayton wraps up our looks, the target leader on this Giants offense among WRs. Slayton is fresh off a 62-yard outing and the game-script suggests plenty of passing coming for New York.

Sweat-free bet No. 2 (+580 FanDuel)

• Samuel over 55.5 receiving yards
• Breida over 11.5 receiving yards
• Slayton over 37.5 receiving yards

Make sure you opt into these sportsbook offers, and enjoy the game!

In the news ...

Bears defensive coordinator resigns amid bizarre reports — It's hard to know what is going on here with former Chicago defensive coordinator Alan Williams. Williams resigned on Wednesday after stepping away from the team for personal reasons last week. There was a rumored FBI raid on Williams's house and Halas Hall, home of the Bears. The team is denying the raid happened. More information will likely come to light at some point. Chicago will move forward with a game against Kansas City this weekend. The Chiefs' team total is set at 30.5 points.

Cam Akers traded to Minnesota — After being a healthy inactive Week 2, Los Angeles has moved former second-round pick, RB Cam Akers, trading him to Minnesota. Akers will join an 0-2 Vikings team that hasn't gotten much going on the ground with Alexander Mattison. While Akers may not play much this weekend, he's an intriguing name to keep in our back pocket if Mattison continues to slog through games.

Second round of WNBA playoffs begins Sunday — We're down to four in the WNBA season, with an expected collision course between Las Vegas and New York imminent for the finals. Both the Aces and Liberty surpassed the regular-season record for most wins in a season and will host the Wings and Sun respectively. Join us on the Liberty winning it all at +140, they've been the best team in the WNBA according to net rating over the last 15 games.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll, the guy who won $8K on a $20 NFL parlay. For more content to help fuel your betting picks, follow him on Substack: griffybets.substack.com.