Were the NFL professional wrestling, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, the most successful tag team in league history, would have parted ways years ago. In the sports entertainment world, breaking up a successful team is a tried-and-true plot device. In the NFL, it flies in the face of logic; if you have a good thing going, particularly with a quarterback and a head coach, you try to keep it rolling for as long as possible.
That said, a Brady-Belichick breakup has never seemed more plausible than right now. Brady’s impending free agency is the biggest story of the offseason, and it has sparked rampant speculation and debate about which team might be best for him. The idea of Brady in Las Vegas is tantalizing. In Tampa Bay? Incongruous. Los Angeles, with the Chargers? An interesting experiment to see if the best quarterback in history can jump-start interest in a nomadic team.
The reality is that if Brady plays for anyone other than the Patriots in 2020, it will be because said team offers him both more money and a better chance to win a Super Bowl. Viewing the situation through that prism yields only one sensible answer: The Tennessee Titans, and here’s why:
The Titans can pay the man. Spotrac projects them as having nearly $48 million in cap room. If a new CBA is passed, they’ll have even more roster flexibility. Tennessee also has the best supporting cast. Should the Titans find a way to keep Derrick Henry, Brady would inherit an absolute wrecking ball of a runner who almost single-handedly propelled Tennessee to the Super Bowl. Henry might have only two or three years of elite production ahead of him, but that dovetails nicely with Brady’s stated desire to play until age 45.
Henry isn’t the only piece that makes Tennessee attractive. The Titans have dynamite at wide receiver in the form of second-year pro A.J. Brown, who posted 1,051 receiving yards and eight touchdowns as a rookie and averaged 20.2 yards per reception, second in the NFL. Opposite Brown is Corey Davis, the fifth pick in the 2017 draft, and while Davis has yet to hit his stride as a pro, he’s still more talented than anyone Brady was throwing to in 2019.
Adam Humphries is the kind of slot receiver who could post huge numbers with Brady, whose partnerships with Wes Welker and Julian Edelman produced jaw-dropping statistics. Welker and Edelman combined for six 100-catch seasons with Brady, and Welker alone led the league in receptions three times with the Patriots. Humphries would be primed for a similar explosion.
Tennessee’s offense isn’t just loaded at the skill positions either. The Titans have a stud at left tackle in Taylor Lewan, whose 2019 pass blocking grade from Pro Football Focus was 82.1, 11th best in the NFL among tackles with at least 400 snaps in pass protection, and their offensive line was fourth in the league in average pocket time provided, at 2.6 seconds, per Pro Football Reference.
Tennessee did allow 56 sacks, second most in the NFL, but nearly half (25) came in six Marcus Mariota starts, before he gave way to Ryan Tannehill for the final 10 games of the season. Tannehill was sacked just 27 times in his 10 starts, almost a sack-and-a-half less per game than Mariota.
Add Brady to that mix and factor in a talented defense that features safety Kevin Byard, tackle Jurrell Casey and corner Malcolm Butler, and you have a serious contender in 2020. Brady is better than Tannehill, who, despite his brilliance last season, has an overall body of work that calls into question whether 2019 was just a half-season mirage. By contrast, Brady had his worst statistical season in years, mediocre talent around him and an offensive line that faltered late, and he still ended up as Pro Football Focus’ 12th-ranked quarterback.
Then there’s the Mike Vrabel connection. The two were teammates in New England, and Vrabel has already shown that he can match wits with anyone — his clock manipulation in the playoffs was the rare case of an opposing coach outfoxing Belichick. If Brady wants to leave New England but still wants some of the structure that helped him thrive with the Patriots, no coach can deliver it like Vrabel.
The Tom Brady free agency circus is fun, but when all the sensational angles are stripped away and the question comes down to which team gives the NFL’s ultimate competitor the best chance to win next year, the choice is clear: It’s the Titans.
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