Tua Tagovailoa's future still holds a slim layer of uncertainty, and one national outlet mapped out what a divorce would demand

The Miami Dolphins made a massive financial commitment to their franchise quarterback Tua Tagovailoa just before the 2024 season began, signing him to a four-year, $212.4 million extension. It clearly evidenced a long-term marriage to their 2020 first-round pick.

However, one national outlet sees at least a potential path for an early divorce between the two parties. After 2025, to be specific.

The Athletic put out a list of one contract to watch for every NFL team, and Tua was listed for the Dolphins. This is what The Athletic had to say: 

There’s a world where this is Tagovailoa’s final season in Miami. To be clear, the odds of the Dolphins moving on after this season are remote (it's far more likely after 2026), but it's maybe not as crazy as you think. Imagine if the up-against-the-cap Dolphins struggle to a five- or six-win 2025 season. Ownership decides it's time for a hard reset, and the new GM and coach don't see Tagovailoa, with his concussion history and limitations as a pocket passer, as a franchise QB. They decide to draft a QB and look to trade Tagovailoa to a QB-needy team. His value would depend on his health and how he plays this year, but for the record: Simply cutting him after this season would come with a $79 million dead cap hit. That's a lot, but it wouldn't even be the NFL record. — Jim Ayello 

Why it's not an absurd thought

There are a couple of unknows at play, but a hard truth to also consider in all of it.  First, to the unknowns that Ayello referenced above. If Tua suffered a severe concussion or any other injury and missed significant time, as in the vast majority of the season, then questions about his durability and viability as the team's starting quarterback would begin to emerge (again).

Of course, who answers those questions is as important as the questions themselves. Head coach Mike McDaniel and general manager Chris Grier are both tied to Tua, particularly the latter, since he drafted him.

Owner Stephen Ross has said that the status quo isn't acceptable, so if Miami goes 8-9 again and misses the playoffs, would Ross do what many fans thought he should have done this year and cut ties with one or both? And what would be the philosophy of mystery front office/coach X who's brought in to replace him/them? Obviously too speculative to carry real weight, but the possibility of someone new not wanting Tua is impossible to fully discount.

Why it's hard to pull it off

But the bottom line is ripping off the Band-Aid would be extremely painful and messy—more than perhaps the Dolphins would be willing to deal with. According to Over the Cap, Tua's 2026 dead cap hit through a pre-June 1 release is $79.2 million; a post-June 1 release would be $62.4 million. A pre-June 1 trade would reduce the hit to $25.2 million, while a post-June 1 trade would drop that to $8.4 million.

By point of comparison, Russell Wilson's dead cap hit of $85 million following his release by the Broncos is the largest in NFL history by a significant margin.

So, unless Miami could get someone to trade for Tua after the next offseason (which is unlikely with his contract and injury history), or unless Miami is truly desperate and willing to flirt with league history in the wrong way, it seems very unlikely Tua will be playing anywhere but Miami in both 2025 and 2026.