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New York Giants QB Jaxson Dart with OLB Abdul Carter Chris Pedota, NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Two Giants Draft Picks Projected to Be Among Rookie Leaders in These Stats

Originally posted on New York Giants on SI
By Stephen Lebitsch | Last updated May 22, 2025 2:00 PM ET

With the rosters of all 32 NFL teams mostly set in stone before OTAs and training camps for the rest of the offseason, one of the remaining questions is which rookies will immediately impact their franchises as they step foot into the professional level.

Typically, the expectation is always there for first-round draft picks, for which the New York Giants have two beginning their careers in outside linebacker Abdul Carter and quarterback Jaxson Dart. Carter was one of the best non-passing talents in the class and will have an expansive role on the defensive front, but Dart's immediate future is still being debated.

At this moment, Russell Wilson is the Giants’ starting signal caller, while Jameis Winston has been designated as the backup. Depending on how the first few weeks go for New York, it almost feels like we’ll be watching for the earliest chants for Dart to enter the fold and bring credence to the trade the team made to move up and select him.

The Giants have made it clear that they don’t want to rush Dart’s development, even though he was widely scouted because of his background in a pro-style system at Ole Miss. Jumping the gun would feel like the season was another immense failure if the rookie finds an early nod and has to spare the final judgment of the Joe Schoen-Brian Daboll regime.

That said, history is very much on Dart’s side. He and Carter are destined to be high-impact players in their debut campaigns, and per a new analysis by ESPN, are projected to be among the top five rookie leaders in two select statistics for the 2025 season.

For Carter, that area is the sacks category, and Dart, the number of passing yards and touchdowns he’ll throw to a talented arsenal of Giants receivers.

In case one wanted to read more explicit context on Dart’s situation, the analysis by Mike Clay noted, “From 2011 to 2024, 38 of 47 first-round QBs (81%) took over as the starter before Week 10. Twenty-three (49%) started in Week 1, including Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Bo Nix last season. Of the seven QBs picked in the 20-32 range, six played as rookies, and four took over before Week 5.

“There are 27 QBs who appeared in at least 14 games as a rookie since 2011. Excluding Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson -- who were used situationally as rushers -- that group averaged 3,455 passing yards and 19 touchdown passes.”

Cam Ward, the only rookie quarterback who received projections near those numbers, was the No. 1 overall pick and sole runaway prospect in terms of day-one starting ability. Dart’s projections were much more modest, but still ranked third in the class with 1,968 yards and 10 touchdowns in an estimated nine starts.

Again, it seems unlikely that Dart will scratch almost 2,000 yards and double-digit passing touchdowns if the Giants brass's statements about their offensive game plan hold.

Daboll has spoken glowingly and seemed very excited to have his rookie gunslinger in the building before they even made the bold move in the draft for him. That’s something one didn’t see often with former quarterback Daniel Jones in their three seasons together, where it usually looked like the coach was frustrated with Jones’ lack of progression from year to year.

Wilson is a much more proven name than Jones has yet to become, but he has experienced a noticeable drop in his production since leaving Seattle at the end of the 2021 season. It wouldn’t be totally surprising if he stumbles in his first stretch as a Giant, as Daboll has the temptation to test his rookie arm in what is already a gauntlet schedule.

It would likely have to come as a pre-bye week change for New York, which doesn’t have its break until Week 14, to give Dart a chance to match those projections. Still, that stat line might be impressive enough to appease ownership if it reaches a point where Dart is the final tool toward an ultimatum on Schoen and Daboll’s long-term futures with the organization.

On the defensive side, Carter was tied first in the edge position group for sacks with 6.0 quarterback takedowns. That number almost seems too low for what the team expects of a generational pass rusher. Still, it would be respectable, given how difficult the transition to facing NFL-level offensive linemen can be for first-year players.

Surpassing his projections could also spell trouble for fellow edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux, who some have believed to be on the trading block this season if he has another dismal year. The former fifth overall pick had a breakout performance in 2023 with 50 tackles and 11.5 sacks, followed up with 28 tackles and 5.5 sacks in 12 games in 2024.

Injuries were certainly a factor, but that did not stop Carter from coming in and giving Thibodeaux a run for his role in the starting defensive front. There are ways both players can play at once with Brian Burns and Dexter Lawrence as well, and one should expect the Giants to utilize the rookie in different spots given his background from Penn State.

At this moment in time, Carter’s production would be the more desirable outcome. The Giants want to have a strong defensive identity this season, and that starts with the work of their front four pass rushers, who are among the most talented in football.

When you are a team like the Giants fighting to dig out of the ineptitude they’ve been wallowing in for over a decade, it could take the efforts of both veterans and rookies alike.

If these two members of the 2025 class can even sniff these numbers, let alone beat them, it would at least ensure that the draft was a success for the Schoen and Daboll regime to fall back on.

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