Happy Thanksgiving to our American readers, and happy normal Thursday to our international fans! We have a loaded slate of holiday football to enjoy this week, so I hope you’re ready to settle in next to your family with the turkey and pie, because you won’t want to miss it.

In a week to reflect on what we’re thankful for, I’m thankful for such a crazy playoff picture this season. Each conference has 10 teams vying for playoff bids, setting up for an exciting finish to the season with many twists and turns yet to come.

We might be 12 weeks into the season, but it still seems like we don’t know what a lot of teams are. Inevitably, that leads to upsets and wild playoff runs. Should be a fun time.

Tier 1: Super Bowl Favorites

This tier is for the one team standing above the rest right now.

1 — Los Angeles Rams (9-2, UP 1)

Last week: W 34-7 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Rams get their own tier because they are so clearly the best team in football right now. They’re the only team in the league to rank in the top three in both offensive and defensive EPA per play, PFF grade, and scoring per game. Matthew Stafford might clinch a berth in the Hall of Fame if he wins the MVP he’s on pace for, and this defense is suffocating at all three levels. Los Angeles legitimately might not have a weakness.

Tier 2: Super Bowl Contenders

This tier belongs to the locked-in Super Bowl contenders.

2 — Kansas City Chiefs (6-5, DOWN 1)

Last week: W 23-20 OT vs. Indianapolis Colts

Are the Chiefs back? They won their first one-score game of the season by taking down the Colts in overtime. The offense exploded in the fourth quarter, with WR Rashee Rice running rampant through the Indy defense. All the advanced metrics have loved Kansas City all season, and now they have a manageable closing schedule to stack wins and work their way into the playoffs.

3 — Seattle Seahawks (8-3, UP 6)

Last week: W 30-24 vs. Tennessee Titans

It wasn’t pretty all the way through, but the Seahawks took care of business. Third-year WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba continues his historic season, currently on pace to be the first receiver to top 2,000 yards. The question will be whether QB Sam Darnold can hold his own in the playoffs.

4 — Indianapolis Colts (8-3, DOWN 1)

Last week: L 20-23 OT vs. Kansas City Chiefs

An overtime loss on the road in Kansas City is nothing for the Colts to hang their heads about, but questions still remain about whether QB Daniel Jones can execute in high-leverage moments when Indy needs to pass to win. He wasn’t able to against the Chiefs, and the Colts have a tough closing schedule. If they win their way to a division title, they’ll have proven their legitimacy.

5 — Philadelphia Eagles (8-3, —)

Last week: L 21-24 vs. Dallas Cowboys

Late-game collapses are unfortunately becoming a bit of a theme for the Eagles. Philly’s offense has a bad habit of going inexplicably cold for long stretches of games, like this past week after going up 21-0 on Dallas. The vibes aren’t great, but the Eagles shouldn’t have an issue winning the NFC East. The larger question is if this offense has what it takes to win games in January.

6 — Denver Broncos (9-2, UP 5)

Last week: BYE

The Broncos keep inexplicably winning games despite struggling on offense for the most part this season. Denver’s defense is legit, and second-year QB Bo Nix is a gamer. I question if they can win four games in a row in January with this offense, but in a crowded AFC with no clear top contender emerging, the Broncos might be the team to bet on. They know how to win.

7 — Green Bay Packers (7-3-1, —)

Last week: W 23-6 vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Packers might not be as consistent as we’d like them to be, but they have all the pieces to win a title this season. When this offense is clicking, there isn’t a more diverse attack in the league. And this defense is lockdown against every variety of opposing offense.

Tier 3: Playoff Teams

These teams are surefire playoff teams without Super Bowl ceilings — though they could certainly get hot and make some noise.

8 — New England Patriots (10-2, UP 4)

Last week: W 26-20 vs. Cincinnati Bengals

The softest schedule in the league aside, the Patriots aren’t losing games they should win. That shows remarkable maturity for a young team, and second-year QB Drake Maye is playing like an MVP contender. Their questionable offensive infrastructure could come back to bite them in the playoffs.

9 — Buffalo Bills (7-4, DOWN 3)

Last week: L 19-23 vs. Houston Texans

The Bills have a wide receiver problem. They had no one who could get open against the Texans, forcing QB Josh Allen to hold the ball and take eight sacks. With Buffalo’s defensive issues, they need their offense to carry them, and they might not have the horses to do so. Allen is good enough to carry this team to multiple playoff wins, but it’s hard to see them going on a serious run.

10 — Detroit Lions (7-4, DOWN 6)

Last week: W 34-27 OT vs. New York Giants

The Lions lost a lot on the offensive line this offseason, and it’s showing. They can’t protect QB Jared Goff, and it’s shutting their offense down at times. More concerningly, this secondary can’t cover, and it’s telling that the lowly Giants ran roughshod over this unit.

11 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5, DOWN 3)

Last week: L 7-34 vs. Los Angeles Rams

The hospital Bucs couldn’t hold a candle to the Rams, but Tampa Bay’s schedule is about to get a lot easier. After a brutal stretch, they should be favored in most of the rest of their games. That’s a relief for a Buccaneers squad that’s in danger of letting the division slip away to the Panthers. Getting some guys back from injury down the stretch should help them in the playoffs.

12 — Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4, UP 1)

Last week: W 27-24 OT vs. Arizona Cardinals

The Jaguars might just mess around and win the AFC South. Despite being down their top two receivers in Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter, this offense is finding ways to produce. Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence is playing better and better of late, and this defense under first-year DC Anthony Campanile is absolutely suffocating.

Tier 3: Playoff Contenders

Not all of these teams will make it to the playoffs, of course, but they are all teams expected to make playoff pushes. And who knows, once they get there, they could go on a run.

13 — Houston Texans (6-5, UP 3)

Last week: W 23-19 vs. Buffalo Bills

Here come the Texans. What was a shaky offensive line to start the season is really coming into its own, and this defense is insane. Edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter form a devastating duo and this secondary just blankets teams. Once starting QB C.J. Stroud returns, Houston can make a real playoff push.

14 — Los Angeles Chargers (7-4, DOWN 4)

Last week: BYE

With the injuries to OTs Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, this offensive line is playing like the worst line in the league. Everything else the Chargers do is awesome, but with such a massive weakness in the trenches Los Angeles is struggling to win games consistently. Can QB Justin Herbert overcome this? That will be the question that determines if the Chargers can make the playoffs.

15 — San Francisco 49ers (8-4, DOWN 1)

Last week: W 20-9 vs. Carolina Panthers

Despite how injured this team is, there’s a good chance they could earn a playoff bid with a soft closing schedule. San Francisco plays the Browns and Titans before facing the Colts, Bears and Seahawks. 11 wins is quite attainable for the 49ers, which is a testament to HC Kyle Shanahan and the depth on this roster.

16 — Chicago Bears (8-3, UP 3)

Last week: W 31-28 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

This might seem low for a Bears team with eight wins. But Chicago has only beaten two teams all year with records above .500 — the Cowboys and the Steelers. Second-year QB Caleb Williams is playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL right now (even though he struggled a bit in Week 12), which is huge. His continued growth is all that matters this season, but a playoff berth looks like it might be on the way ahead of schedule.

17 — Baltimore Ravens (6-5, UP 1)

Last week: W 23-10 vs. New York Jets

The Ravens have won five in a row after a 1-5 start, and now sit tied for first in the AFC North. This defense is still shaky, but with QB Lamar Jackson back in the lineup, there isn’t much this offense can’t do. The two upcoming games against the Steelers will likely decide which team makes the playoffs, as it’s hard to see this division producing a wildcard team.

18 — Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1, UP 2)

Last week: W 24-21 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Don’t count the Cowboys out just yet. Dallas keeps its playoff hopes alive a little longer with a clutch comeback win over the Eagles. With a manageable closing slate, if the Cowboys can win one of their next two against the Chiefs and Lions, they could make things interesting. Veteran QB Dak Prescott continues his scintillating season.

19 — Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5, DOWN 4)

Last week: L 28-31 vs. Chicago Bears

I’m not a believer in this team at all. Even when QB Aaron Rodgers is healthy, this offense doesn’t trust any pass-catchers besides WR D.K. Metcalf, and they can’t run the ball. Defending the middle of the field has been an issue for the most expensive defense in the league, but in a weak AFC North, Pittsburgh has a clear path to a playoff berth.

20 — Carolina Panthers (6-6, UP 3)

Last week: L 9-20 vs. San Francisco 49ers

Panthers HC Dave Canales deserves a lot of credit for wrangling a .500 team from this Carolina roster. Third-year QB Bryce Young has settled in and this defense is playing better in recent weeks, but they just lack talent. With how this season is progressing, there’s reason to feel optimistic for the future as this staff continues to build the roster.

Tier 5: Feisty Spoilers

They probably (or definitely) won’t make the playoffs, but they could play spoiler and might be better than their record indicates.

21 — Arizona Cardinals (3-8, —)

Last week: L 24-27 OT vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

It’s another agonizing close loss for a Cardinals team that probably isn’t as far from competing for the playoffs as their record indicates. But QB Kyler Murray has likely played his last snap for Arizona, and finding his replacement will be paramount this offseason. Backup QB Jacoby Brissett is setting NFL records for passing attempts, which isn’t a great position to be in.

22 — Minnesota Vikings (4-7, —)

Last week: L 6-23 vs. Green Bay Packers

Second-year QB J.J. McCarthy is really struggling after not playing at all during his rookie season due to a meniscus injury. This is a talented defense and a strong overall offensive unit, but McCarthy is dragging the whole team down. Letting Darnold walk this offseason is backfiring massively.

23 — Miami Dolphins (4-7, UP 6)

Last week: BYE

The Dolphins are playing much more inspired football than they were to start the season, but this is a roster lacking talent across the board. Miami will face a big decision with QB Tua Tagovailoa after the season, but they need to add reinforcements along the offensive line and all over the defense regardless.

24 — Washington Commanders (3-8, DOWN 7)

Last week: BYE

Injuries certainly played a part, but this Commanders roster isn’t nearly as strong as it appeared last season. Washington caught lightning in a bottle in 2024. Star QB Jayden Daniels isn’t going anywhere, but the Commanders need time to build the roster and lack the assets to do so quickly.

25 — Atlanta Falcons (4-7, DOWN 1)

Last week: W 24-10 vs. New Orleans Saints

Second-year QB Michael Penix Jr. has a partially torn ACL that puts the start of next season in jeopardy for him. That would be bad enough, but this regime might be in trouble regardless. Penix struggled in what was essentially his rookie season after only getting a few starts in 2024, but this roster is more talented than its record would indicate. That’s usually not a good sign for a coaching staff.

Tier 6: Better Luck Next Year

The season ended for fans of these teams quite some time ago. But hey, tune in for our early draft coverage which will be heating up starting next month.

26 — New York Giants (2-10, —)

Last week: L 27-34 OT vs. Detroit Lions

Brian Daboll is rightfully out as head coach, but his big draft pick in his final season is looking pretty good. First-round QB Jaxson Dart showed promise, if not consistency, and this defense is loaded with talent that just isn’t being maximized. New York will be an appealing landing spot for prospective head coaches.

27 — Cleveland Browns (3-8, —)

Last week: W 24-10 vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Fifth-round QB Shedeur Sanders had a decent game in his first start, but the weaknesses in his game will only be exacerbated behind this rough Browns offensive line. If he can elevate his play and win a couple of games down the stretch, it’ll give Cleveland more options heading into the draft.

28 — Cincinnati Bengals (3-8, DOWN 3)

Last week: L 20-26 vs. New England Patriots

The Bengals traded for QB Joe Flacco from the Browns to try and hold down the fort and keep Cincy close to .500 while Joe Burrow recovered. He played well, but this defense is so bad it didn’t matter. Burrow is expected to make his return on Thanksgiving against the Ravens, but I’m not sure even his talents can lead to consistent winning with the current state of the Bengals roster.

29 — Las Vegas Raiders (2-9, DOWN 1)

Last week: L 10-24 vs. Cleveland Browns

Will HC Pete Carroll get fired? That seems to be where things are headed after OC Chip Kelly became the second coordinator canned by this administration. Things are bad in Las Vegas, and as much as they aren’t equipped to compete in the loaded AFC West, they should be better than this.

30 — New Orleans Saints (2-9, —)

Last week: L 10-24 vs. Atlanta Falcons

Second-round QB Tyler Shough hasn’t been terrible, but second-year man Spencer Rattler outplayed him in his time as the starter. Where the Saints end up picking in the draft could determine Shough’s future, as this class lacks a bona fide top-end star at the position. If the Saints don’t like their options, they could choose to run it back with Shough again next year and see what he looks like in his second season.

31 — New York Jets (2-9, —)

Last week: L 10-23 vs. Baltimore Ravens

The Jets benched starting QB Justin Fields for veteran backup Tyrod Taylor last week, with the hopes it would improve their downfield passing attack. It certainly did, as Taylor is capable of running an effective offense, but it didn’t lead to a win. HC Aaron Glenn and GM Darren Mougey seem aligned on their vision for the future and are prepared to undergo a long rebuild.

32 — Tennessee Titans (1-10, —)

Last week: L 24-30 vs. Seattle Seahawks

The Titans are currently running the risk of damaging No. 1 overall pick QB Cam Ward’s development at this rate. He truly has nothing to work with on offense, outside of promising fourth-round WR Elic Ayomanor. Tennessee will be hunting for a coach who can work with Ward once they begin their search in earnest.