Upgrade/Downgrade: Ranking projected 2026 NFL Week 1 QB changes

Change is coming.

Barring any last-minute surprises, nine NFL teams will have a different Week 1 starting quarterback from 2025. Below, we examine the changes, rank them from worst to best and ultimately decide whether each is an upgrade or downgrade.

9. Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson

Replacing: Joe Flacco

Since being traded to the Browns and signing a fully guaranteed $230M extension in 2022, Watson is one of 40 quarterbacks with 19 starts. He ranks No. 38 in passer rating (80.7), which measures quarterback passing production on a scale of 0-158.3, ahead of Kenny Pickett (78.2) and Zach Wilson (75.2). He's also shown poor pocket awareness, leading to an 11.2 percent sack rate, second-highest among qualifying quarterbacks.

Flacco was named Week 1 starter in his age-40 season and flopped, throwing two touchdowns and six interceptions before being released. But at least he doesn't take many sacks, and he also finished 2025 with 2,479 passing yards, his most since 2017. | DOWNGRADE

8. *Atlanta Falcons quarterback Tua Tagovailoa

*projected

Replacing: Michael Penix Jr.

Penix, recently cleared for full team drills, has an outside shot of earning consecutive opening week starts. If he can't catch up before Week 1, his time as QB2 may be short-lived based on Tagovailoa's substandard preseason Week 1 performance and a "woeful" joint practice with the Indianapolis Colts. | DOWNGRADE

7. Arizona Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissett

Replacing: Kyler Murray

Arizona's passing attack took off last season once Brissett took over in Week 6, but that was only cosmetic. Overall, the Cardinals only averaged 0.4 points more per game. Per Rbsdm.com, the Cardinals ranked No. 15 in dropback EPA (expected points added) per play (0.113) from Weeks 1-5 and No. 22 from Weeks 6-18 (0.016). | DOWNGRADE

6. *Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Kirk Cousins

*projected

Replacing: Geno Smith

Rookie No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza remains in contention, but either should be an improvement over Smith, who led the league in interceptions (17) and sacks (55) last season. Some of Cousins' best seasons came with Raiders first-year coach Klint Kubiak in Minnesota (2019-21). During that span, Cousins averaged 4,029.7 yards, 31.3 touchdowns and 8.7 interceptions per season. | UPGRADE

5. New York Jets quarterback Geno Smith

Replacing: Justin Fields

Even after a rough 2025, Smith brings much more credibility to New York's passing attack. Last season, Fields finished four of his nine starts with fewer than 100 passing yards, including three when playing the majority of offensive snaps. | UPGRADE

4. Miami Dolphins quarterback Malik Willis

Replacing: Tua Tagovailoa

Willis completed 79.6 of his passes for 612 yards and three touchdowns in three starts for the Packers from 2024-25 but is largely an unknown. He still offers more promise than Tagovailoa, who threw a career-high 15 interceptions last season while averaging 190 passing yards per game, his fewest since 2020.

With worse weapons than his predecessor, Willis' yardage numbers may not be much better than Tagovailoa's. But after being a major problem, quarterback may be one of Miami's few bright spots in 2026. | UPGRADE

3. New Orleans Saints quarterback Tyler Shough

Replacing: Spencer Rattler

A cursory glance shows Shough and Rattler had similar numbers last season.

But watching the Saints offense, Shough was the better quarterback. Analytics back up the eye test, with FTN Fantasy's Stats IQ showing New Orleans improved from No. 30 in EPA per dropback (-0.141) from Weeks 1-8 to No. 14 (0.041) in Shough's nine starts. The Saints' explosive play rate also increased three percentage points, from 6.8 percent to 9.8 percent. | UPGRADE

2. New York Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart

Replacing: Russell Wilson

Despite Dart's concerning injury history, the improvement from a past-his-prime Wilson to an exciting second-year pro is substantial. ESPN's Bill Barnwell recently listed the Giants as one of his five teams most likely to improve in 2026, noting if "a core built around Dart, [wide receiver Malik] Nabers, running back Cam Skattebo and high-end left tackle Andrew Thomas...live up to expectations, the Giants could take a massive leap forward." | UPGRADE

1. Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kyler Murray

Replacing: J.J. McCarthy

The Vikings didn't need a whole preseason to know Murray is better than McCarthy. The 2024 rookie underwhelmed in 2025, completing 57.6 percent of his passes and averaging 163.2 passing yards per game while throwing 11 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. 

Murray has struggled with consistency (otherwise, the Cardinals wouldn't have released him) but has shown an ability over the years to make plays McCarthy simply isn't capable of making. Despite last season's inept QB production, Minnesota went 9-8. If Murray provides as much of an improvement at quarterback as predicted, the Vikings, two years removed from a 14-3 regular season, could be extremely dangerous. | UPGRADE