Washington Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr. Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Upset special? What Commanders must do to stun Bengals

By Andrew Wright | Last updated Sep 21, 2024 12:25 PM ET

One of two Week 3 "Monday Night Football" games features the Washington Commanders at the Cincinnati Bengals.

Can the Commanders — a 7.5-point underdog, per FanDuel as of Saturday — upset the Bengals, who have Super Bowl aspirations and are aiming to avoid starting 0-3 for the first time since 2019? No team that started 0-3 has made it to a Super Bowl.

Led by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, the Commanders must excel in all phases to pull off an upset.

Here's a potential formula for success:

Establish the run game: In its 21-18 Week 2 win over the New York Giants, Washington rushed for 215 rushing yards, a career-high 133 by RB Brian Robinson, whom first-year head coach Dan Quinn called a "rare competitor."

Cincinnati could possibly be without three starters on the defensive line. Starters B.J. Hill and Sheldon Rankins did not practice on Friday. Another defensive tackle, Kris Jenkins, was a limited participant.

Cincinnati's defense ranks 26th in rushing defense, so this will be a golden opportunity for the ground attack to eat up yards and clock.

Brian Robinson Jr. just pulled off a magic trick

: #NYGvsWAS on FOX
: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/5IyJP0JVn0
— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024

Force turnovers: Turnovers in football are often momentum killers or momentum swingers. Last season, Washington was worst in the NFL with a -14-turnover differential, a figure Quinn is intent on turning around.

In the opening loss to Tampa Bay, Washington did not force a turnover. In the win over the Giants, the Commanders recovered a fumble. A timely takeaway could be the key to Washington escaping Cincinnati with a victory.

first takeaway of the year

#NYGvsWAS FOX pic.twitter.com/evyHaNqFOw
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) September 15, 2024

Excel on special teams: In what might potentially be a low-scoring game Monday night, special teams could become a huge factor.

In Washington's Week 2 win, kicker Austin Seibert went a perfect 7-of-7 on field goals in his team debut, earning him NFC Special Teams Player of the Week.

Besides adept kicking, the Commanders need stellar play from punter Tress Way, who was top 10 last season in punts inside the 20 and percentage of punts inside the 20. Punting to flip field position could potentially impact the game.

AUSTIN SEIBERT HITS HIS SEVENTH FIELD GOAL OF THE DAY FOR THE WIN. #NYGvsWAS pic.twitter.com/0w3Rlg0xOc
— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024

Even if Washington runs the ball well, forces a turnover and excels at special teams, it still could lose because of Bengals QB Joe Burrow, one of a handful of elite quarterbacks in the NFL.

“He is a cool, calm, collected, confident version of Kirk Cousins,” a coach told The Athletic's Mike Sando for his annual QB tiers project in which Burrow ranked second. “He might have a little better arm strength, but the skill set is very similar, except Burrow is not an overthinker. He just has this confidence that he’s right, and he throws with that purpose and that confidence, and normally, he is right.”

A win for Washington would give it momentum under Quinn and Daniels, who has played solidly but not spectacularly in two games (75% completion percentage, 410 yards passing). He has no interceptions and no TD passes.

A loss by Cincinnati could put head coach Zac Taylor on the hot seat.

Andrew Wright

Andrew "Dew" Wright graduated from Charleston Southern University with a degree in Communication Studies. He is a lifelong Chicago Cubs and Washington Commanders fan.

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