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Using NFL Week 1 results to determine if a vulnerable 2021 defense is still a betting target
Week 1 is an important opportunity to gather initial insights as to what type of teams we're getting for the new season. There's only so much you can glean from looking at the past year's data, and if a last year vulnerability rears its head again in Week 1, it's reasonable to expect it will carry over for the season.
Now, it is just one week of data, but for the teams that have the same personnel and coaching, we can tie it in with 2021 results.
Heading into Week 1, I had organized a handful of key metrics to help me with my passing/receiving props, namely a look into long receptions.
Metrics:
- 20+ yard passes allowed
- Explosive play rate (EPR)
- Defensive average depth of target (DADOT)
- Opponent's yards per pass attempt (OYPPA)
There were 16 teams that ranked highly in at least two of these categories. The list was whittled down if any teams had a reason to expect a better outcome in 2022 (see: Baltimore Ravens and their rash of injuries to the secondary last season).
Let's now expand it back out to the 17 teams I initially circled, to see how Week 1 went for their defense. The goal? Figure out if bettors should be targeting these defenses moving forward.
Atlanta Falcons
Metrics: EPR, OYPPA
Week 1 results
New Orleans' Jameis Winston completed six passes of 20+ yards, tied for second-highest from Week 1. His long was a 40-yarder to Jarvis Landry. Landry and Michael Thomas both caught two 20+ yard passes.
Target moving forward?
Yes.
Baltimore Ravens
Metrics: 20+ yard passes allowed, EPR, DADOT, OYPPA
Week 1 results
The Jets' Joe Flacco only completed one pass of 20+ yards, even more impressive for the Baltimore defense when you consider that Flacco threw the ball 59 times.
Starting corner Kyle Fuller tore his ACL, so the injuries are already back for Baltimore.
Target moving forward? For now, no, but an offense led by Joe Flacco is not an ideal litmus test.
Chicago Bears
Metrics: EPR, DADOT, OYPPA
Week 1 results
Niners' Trey Lance tossed three 20+ yard passes, headlined by a 44-yard completion to Jauan Jennings. Brandon Aiyuk also caught a 31-yard pass.
Target moving forward?
Yes. Considering the Chicago weather, the fact that the Niners were still able to break off some long plays is a good sign that we can target this Bears secondary again.
Cincinnati Bengals
Metrics: 20+ yard passes allowed, EPR, DADOT
Week 1 results
Pittsburgh's Mitchell Trubisky completed four passes of 20+ yards, three of which came from the Steelers tight ends, Pat Freiermuth and Zach Gentry.
Target moving forward?
Yes. Interesting note to consider for tight ends against this defense.
Dallas Cowboys
Metrics: 20+ yard passes allowed, EPR, DADOT
Week 1 results
Tampa Bay's Tom Brady completed three 20+ yard passes, which included a 48-yarder to Julio Jones. Both Jones and Godwin hauled in long passes of 24 or more yards, while Mike Evans had a 20-yard catch early in the game.
Target moving forward?
Yes.
Detroit Lions
Metrics: 20+ yard passes allowed, EPR, DADOT, OYPPA
Week 1 results
The Eagles' Jalen Hurts finished with three 20+ yard passes, a 54-yard bomb to AJ Brown and two to TE Dallas Goedert.
Target moving forward?
Yes. Hurts didn't throw it deep much, partly due to consistent pressure and blitzing from Detroit, and still was able to break off a few big chunk plays on this secondary.
Houston Texans
Metrics: 20+ yard passes allowed, EPR, DADOT, OYPPA
Week 1 results
The Colts' Matt Ryan finished with five 20+ yard passes. Wide receiver Michael Pittman had the long of the day at 28 yards, and the long completions were spread out to four receivers in total.
Target moving forward?
Yes, most definitely.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Metrics: 20+ yard passes allowed, EPR, OYPPA
Week 1 results
Carson Wentz finished his Commanders debut with six 20+ yard completions, tied for second-most in the league. His long was a 49-yard touchdown pass to top receiver Terry McLaurin. The big plays were well diversified, with two receivers, two tight ends, and one running back all finishing with a catch of 23 yards or longer.
Target moving forward?
Yes, most definitely.
Kansas City Chiefs
Metrics: 20+ yard passes allowed, OYPPA
Week 1 results
Arizona's Kyler Murray finished with three passes of 20+ yards, with a long of just 26 to newly acquired Marquise Brown. Receiver Greg Dortch and running back Eno Benjamin were the other recipients of a long play through the air.
Target moving forward?
A fine target when a deep threat is opposite them, like Mike Williams this Thursday coming off a quiet Week 1.
Miami Dolphins
Metrics: 20+ yard passes allowed, EPR, DADOT
Week 1 results
The Patriots' Mac Jones had just two big plays, a 27-yard pass to Jakobi Meyers and a 41-yard completion to Kendrick Bourne.
Target moving forward?
Too early to tell, the Patriots anemic offense isn't the best offense to truly test this defense.
Minnesota Vikings
Metrics: 20+ yard passes allowed, DADOT, OYPPA
Week 1 results
Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers had just three 20+ yard passes and didn't even crack 200 yards passing on the day. Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson and Robert Tonyan all caught a pass longer than 23 yards. Watson had another big play dialed up, but dropped what would have been a long touchdown.
Target moving forward?
It was a strong performance from the Minnesota defense against Rodgers, but they did allow some chunk plays from the receivers. Worth targeting again when there is a vertical threat facing them.
New Orleans Saints
Metrics: 20+ yard passes allowed, EPR, DADOT
Week 1 results
Atlanta's Marcus Mariota completed just two passes of 20+ yards, a 31-yarder to Drake London and a 22-yard pass to Olamide Zaccheaus. Kyle Pitts was shut down.
Target moving forward?
Probably best to leave New Orleans alone for now.
New York Jets
Metrics: 20+ yard passes allowed, EPR, DADOT, OYPPA
Week 1 results
Baltimore's Lamar Jackson completed a 55-yard pass and a 25-yarder, the extent of his big plays on the day. Both completions were to his top receivers.
Target moving forward?
The presence of rookie corner Ahmad Gardner has been a reason to tread lightly here, best to wait and see with the Jets.
San Francisco 49ers
Metrics: 20+ yard passes allowed, EPR, DADOT
Week 1 results
Chicago's Justin Fields threw a 51-yard touchdown to Dante Pettis on a scramble play that saw some broken coverage, and completed a 22-yarder to Byron Pringle. Fields only threw 17 times given the weather in Chicago.
Target moving forward?
Tough to glean much from that game with that weather. As long as a vertical threat draws the Niners, it's a worthy bet to consider until just a few 20+ yard passes allowed becomes a regular occurrence.
Tennessee Titans
Metrics: 20+ yard passes allowed, EPR
Week 1 results
New York's Daniel Jones tossed a 65-yard touchdown to Sterling Shepard, his only completion that went for longer than 16 yards on the day.
Target moving forward?
I would say yes, as the Giants leaned heavily on the ground game, and Daniel Jones is certainly not a world-beater with his arm.
Washington Commanders
Metrics: DADOT, OYPPA
Week 1 results
The Jags' Trevor Lawrence completed two 20-yard passes to Christian Kirk, the long of which was 49 yards, and also tossed a 24-yarder to running back Travis Etienne.
Target moving forward?
An okay option, but Lawrence was also forced to throw the ball 42 times. Considering that volume, the Washington secondary held up reasonably well.
I hope you can put the above to use in your own way this week! In many ways, this is a look into my own process, I'll be relying on these notes to help guide my Week 2 selections.
Griffin Carroll is focused on bringing you the betting numbers that matter. With a focus on the NFL, NHL and NBA, Griffin relies on a data-driven betting approach for prop bets, spread picks and over/unders. Griffin can be found on Twitter @griffybets.
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