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Draft Kings, one of the prominent fantasy football and sports betting sites, has come out with its projected NFL team win totals for the 2024 season ahead of next month’s draft.
While Las Vegas sees the Bucs winning more games than last year’s predicted over-under of 6.5 wins, Tampa Bay is projected to have fewer wins than Atlanta this year.
The Bucs currently have an over-under of 8.5 wins in 2024, while the Falcons are projected to have an over-under of 10.5 wins this season. That’s the highest projected win total of any team in the NFC South.
This is not unexpected, with former Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins signing with Atlanta this offseason. That move makes the Falcons the current favorites to win the division in the eyes of Vegas. It should be noted that Atlanta, which is coming off three consecutive 7-10 seasons, has a brand new coaching staff led by head coach Raheem Morris. And Cousins only has a 1-3 record in the postseason.
The arrival of quarterback Derek Carr in New Orleans last year made the Saints the early favorites to win the NFC South. The Saints actually tied the Bucs with a 9-8 record, but Tampa Bay won the NFC South for a third straight year due to a tiebreaker advantage.
New Orleans is projected to take a step back this season, according to Draft Kings. The Saints’ over-under for 2024 is 7.5 wins.
Carolina, which also has a new head coach in former Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales, finished 2-15 last season with the worst record in the NFL. Draft Kings has the over-under for the Panthers at 4.5 wins along with the New England Patriots.
The Kansas City Chiefs, the defending Super Bowl champions, along with the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers have the highest over-under at 11.5 wins in 2024.
The Chiefs are the current Super Bowl favorite at -110, followed by the Ravens at +110 and the 49ers at +125.
Bucs Have No Problem Being Overlooked Again
Tampa Bay dealt with disrespect from Las Vegas and the national media last year, which projected the Bucs to finish with double-digit losses and a Top 10 draft pick following Tom Brady’s retirement. But the signing of quarterback Baker Mayfield energized the offense and led to Tampa Bay improving its scoring from 18 points per game in Brady’s last season to 21 points per game in 2023.
Head coach Todd Bowles and his team improved from an 8-9 record in 2022 to a 9-8 record last year, in addition to winning a home playoff game over Philadelphia. Tampa Bay advanced to the Divisional round of the NFC playoffs before losing at Detroit, 31-23. The Bucs fought hard and that game was tied heading into the fourth quarter.
Tampa Bay embraced the underdog role last year and shrugged off being counted out before the 2023 campaign even began. The Bucs will take the same approach this offseason and use it as fuel for the regular season come September.
“It’s no different,” Bowles said Tuesday at the NFL Annual Meeting on Tuesday. “When you talk about respect, Aretha Franklin is probably the only one who gets that. Everybody else … you kind of go with the flow. We’re not trying to win the offseason. We’re trying to win the season. So our focus will be the same. It fuels a lot of us. It fuels a lot of the players. We get ready to come back and try to defend our title like we did, and just go further in the playoffs. That’s all we worry about this time of year.”
Bucs general manager Jason Licht echoed Bowles’ sentiment.
“That’s fine with me,” Licht said. “I like being the underdog. This team likes being the underdog. I like keeping receipts.”
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