Veteran QB addition no longer enough for middle-class Patriots

Earlier this offseason, the prospect of the Patriots acquiring Andy Dalton to succeed Tom Brady appeared logical. Move a middling quarterback from one of the NFL's worst infrastructures to its best and improve at the skill positions to justify adding a veteran over drafting Brady’s heir apparent.

A few teams rode the “passable quarterback/dominant defense” formula to deep playoff runs over the past decade. The Patriots encountered some. The 2010 Jets (Mark Sanchez), 2015 Broncos (Peyton Manning) and 2017 Jaguars (Blake Bortles) ran into the second leg of the Patriot dynasty. Two of them eliminated the Pats in the playoffs, and the Jags came close.

Bill Belichick would be the best possible coach to try to win this way. With the right ingredients at his disposal, Belichick pairing Dalton with select members of a defense that ranked first in 2019 DVOA would have been one of the more interesting experiments in recent NFL history. 

With the Bengals releasing Dalton on Thursday, the Patriots can sign him for far less than his previous $17.5 million price. But New England’s free agency and draft point toward a retooling season rather than another Super Bowl push. Giving 2019 fourth-round pick Jarrett Stidham a shot now makes more sense than aspiring to be a lesser version of last year’s successful but flawed team.

Doubting the Patriots has proven ill-advised. But for this team, as presently constructed, replacing Brady with Dalton or former Panther Cam Newton would not make a substantial difference. 

New England used its top three draft picks to bolster a defense that lost key pieces -- most notably hybrid pass-rushers Jamie Collins and Kyle Van Noy. But their offense presents enough issues that would force Belichick’s defense to play at a transcendent level to support it. Considering much of New England's 2019 defensive dominance came against shaky opposition -– including four wins against teams that held top-five picks in last week's draft -– Belichick’s 21st Patriots defense does not appear to possess such capabilities. Six of the unit's projected starters are either over 30 or will be by year’s end.

The Pats have done little to bolster their wide receiver group, leaving one of the deepest wideout drafts ever without selecting one. They also ranked 15th in run-offense DVOA last season. The same running back group remains. The second retirement of famed offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia increases the Pats’ degree of difficulty on both fronts.

Scarnecchia gave the Patriots a decisive advantage up front. Excepting Scarnecchia’s two-year sabbatical from 2014-15, the Patriots ranked in the top 10 in adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate – Football Outsiders’ primary run- and pass-blocking metrics – eight times in the assistant coach’s final nine seasons. This consistency enabled unmatched offensive malleability. In the worst era for offensive line reliability, the Patriots were the primary outlier.

Yet more questions exist at the skill positions. Julian Edelman will turn 34 in three weeks. Among active wideouts, only Larry Fitzgerald, Danny Amendola and Ted Ginn are older. Sanu, 31 in August, averaged 25.9 yards per game in eight Pats outings after Belichick dealt a second-rounder for him. Despite the Patriots using their 2019 first-round pick on N’Keal Harry -– who had 105 yards receiving  (8.8 per catch) in an injury-abbreviated eight-game season -– their present makeup at the position made it stunning they did not invest in one of this draft’s brigade of well-regarded receiver prospects.