Vic Fangio's Dolphins defense not yet for primetime equals Patriots upset on Sunday night

LDE Jaelen Phillips is a burgeoning star and will have to be accounted for - big time. But he's undisciplined against the run and with his rushes. Patriots will take advantage of that.

On the other side, RDE Bradley Chubb has been a huge disappointment and makes left tackle less of an issue for the Patriots. LDT Christian Wilkins is a favorite of mine, but he looks uncomfortable in this scheme. NT Raekwon Davis is just OK, very inconsistent. RDT Zach Sieler got a big contract extension but he's really a backup. He can be moved. (And they have one interior backup on the roster, by the way, so they are thin there.)

In other words, even if the Patriots' offensive line is still going through some issues (I expect them to get Cole Strange and Mike Onwenu back this week), they can still be effective against this Dolphins front seven.

Fangio took the hit this week for his defense, and I'm sure they'll be better. 

"I didn’t have the guys ready to play the type of game that I think they’re capable of playing," he told reporters. "I think most of that was my fault. I didn’t have the guys ready to play the type of game that I think they’re capable of playing. Somewhere along the line, I didn’t do a good job of preparing them for the run game during the week. ... Somewhere along that way, I missed getting them ready for that.”

It's just too early for them, and he doesn't quite have the horses.

GAME PLAN POINTS

1. Rough up the Miami line and turn Tua over: Make no mistake, the Dolphins' offense is going to get theirs in this game. They have one of the fastest offenses I've ever seen. The Patriots will look bad at times. But the Patriots have a distinct advantage with their front seven against Miami's line. If LT Terron Armstead plays, he hasn't don't anything since mid-August. Backup Kendall Lamm is like Conor McDermott. Isaiah Wynn is playing LG and he's still not good. C Connor Williams is just OK. Same with RG Robert Hunt. RT Austin Jackson has never been good and has not improved. Given the prep for Jalen Hurts and the Eagles, the Patriots will be prepared for Tua. Sure, he put up great numbers against the Chargers, but he also nearly threw three picks and fumbled twice. Patriots are a lot more opportunistic than the putrid Chargers.

2. Don't overreact to Patriots' secondary injuries: People are panicking that Jonathan Jones might not play on Sunday after missing two days of practice. I still think he's going to play, but even if he doesn't, it's not like the Patriots were going to play a ton of man against Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The Patriots gameplanned long ago for the Dolphins and that plan will be sound, and will do a solid job of limiting the big plays. I have confidence in their experience and the pass rush causing timing issues.

3. Pound the run and use playaction off that: With the Dolphins' issues up front, I expect the Dolphins to also rush for over 200 yards. Bill O'Brien will have a great playaction game off that to dial up some big plays/touchdowns. S Jevon Holland is one of the best players in the league, and I love nickel Kader Kohou. But SS DeShon Eliott, CBs Xavien Howard and Eli Apple are ripe for the taking. Patriots will exploit those matchups.

GAME PICK

Fanduel odds: Dolphins -3. 46.5 o/u.

Bedard's 2022 record: 15-2 straight up, 14-3 vs. spread. 2023: 1-0, 1-0.

This is a prototypical Week 1 correction game. Everyone is too high on Tua and the Dolphins beating a poorly coached Chargers team. The chances of the Patriots falling to 0-2 are not good. If the Dolphins' defense was better, I would be worried about this game. I just don't think the Dolphins will be able to stop anyone for while. Love the Patriots in this game. I think their rushing offense will help control Miami's offense. This is right up their alley. Perfect spot at the perfect time.

Patriots 27, Dolphins 20

INJURY REPORT UPDATE

• Interesting that Jones was limited on Thursday after not being spotted by the media. I'm still not overly alarmed. Tested it Thursday, rested Friday. Don't play until Sunday night. Bet he goes in some capacity.
• I don't think that Brown or Sow play despite being questionable. I think they're just leaving it open they could be cleared.
• Good news that Andrews and Boutte were removed.
• I don't think Parker goes. If he does, it will be on a strict pitch count.