Vikings GM May Have a Drafting Problem

Nailing the NFL draft is the most crucial part of team building in the NFL. Given that it’s a salary-cap league, the more quality players a team has on rookie deals the better. The Vikings have typically enjoyed a high level of success over the last decade on draft day. Former Vikings GM Rick Spielman was a master of moving up and down the board, accumulating value and additional picks. Not every draft was a homerun, but Minnesota maintained top talent at various positions due to Spielman and Co.’s efforts. After an uncommonly long run of 16 years with the Vikings, Spielman was eventually replaced by Kwesi Adofo-Mensah in 2022.

Adofo-Mensah was a former analytics staffer for the Browns and was thought to bring that analytical element to Minnesota. He came in with a vision for how the Vikings would rebuild but remain competitive throughout. For that to happen, the new front office was going to need to hit big on a few draft picks. However, two years in the only proven stalwarts on rookie deals remain from the old regime in Justin Jefferson and Christian Darrisaw. Those guys are both projected to get extremely expensive in the next few seasons, making it even more imperative that the Vikings’ recent draft picks begin to turn out. It’s still too early to completely rule out anyone from Adofo-Mensah’s first class making the jump, but early returns have not been great.

Adofo-Mensah’s Inaugural Class

The Vikings began the 2022 draft with the 12th overall pick and a full slate of their own selections. When it was announced that the Lions were moving from 32 back up to 12, conventional valuation of a big drop in the first would have suggested a huge haul for Minnesota. Instead, it ended up looking like Adofo-Mensah was unprepared to make a pick and got fleeced as a result. The Vikings basically got a third-round pick to move down 20 spots in the first. For a new front office that was supposed to be analytically driven, it was a wildly disappointing start.

Looking at the players that the Vikings ended up drafting in 2022, many are off to similarly disappointing beginnings:

The First and Second-Day Picks

Safety Lewis Cine (32): Cine is on pace to be one of the quickest prospects taken in his class to earn the bust label. He failed to make an impact in his rookie training camp and was relegated to special teams duties. In his second training camp, he once again failed to make an impact, and his key preseason highlight was getting hurdled by Tennessee running back Tyjae Spears. Cine is making Adofo-Mensah’s trade down look even worse than it did on draft day.

Cornerback Andrew Booth (42): Unlike Cine, Booth put some promising tape out during his rookie year training camp and in the preseason. However, injuries prevented Booth from making an impact during his rookie season. Booth was expected to take a big step forward going into his second camp, but he was shockingly low enough on the depth chart to get the start in the final preseason game when the rest of the starters and key reserves were resting. Booth didn’t play poorly in the preseason, but his place on the depth chart is in question.

Guard Ed Ingram (59): Ingram started every game for the Vikings as a rookie but was one of the worst-rated guards in the league. On an otherwise stout offensive line, Ingram is the clear weak link. Even if he holds onto his starting job to begin 2023, he’s going to have to earn it the whole way.

Linebacker Brian Asamoah (66): Asamoah came in as an athletic off-ball linebacker who was predicted to need a year of grooming. That’s how it ended up playing out, but he was able to flash his sideline-to-sideline speed as a rookie. Of the four players taken in the first three rounds, Asamoah is most likely to be impactful in 2023.

Day 3 Selections

Cornerback Akayleb Evans (118): The Vikings are pinning a lot of hopes on Evans in 2023. He is currently projected to be the starting corner week 1 adjacent to Byron Murphy. Evans had injury issues as a rookie and didn’t prove much when he was on the field. This season will likely be his best chance to prove he can be a starter in the league.

Defensive End Esezi Otomewo (165): Otomewo was cut following this year’s training camp and now resides on Jacksonville’s practice squad.

Running Back Ty Chandler (169): Chandler has been a preseason hero for the Vikings the last two years. He’s in line for the backup duties Week 1 but has a real shot of unseating Mattison as the starter.

Tackle Vederian Lowe (184): Lowe was traded to New England for a future sixth-round pick ahead of 2023 cut day.

Wide Receiver Jalen Nailor (191): In Week 18 against the Bears with the starters resting, Nailor put on a show. At minimum, he should have locked down the #4 job for the next few seasons. However, playing time will be hard to come by given the receiver depth ahead of him.

Tight End Nick Muse (227): Muse has performed well in limited action as a rookie and during his preseason action. That’s translated to him landing a spot on the 53-man roster as the presumed third tight end.

Takeaways

Even with some of the promise that the third-day selections showed, Minnesota’s 2022 draft class is on life support. There’s a real chance that none of the ten players selected get a second contract with the Vikings. All three projected starters from the new regime’s first draft class remain serious question marks on an otherwise solid roster. Making matters worse, early returns on the 2023 class have been similarly questionable with the exception of receiver Jordan Addison. Vikings GM Adofo-Mensah has done relatively well in free agency and hit on a big trade for T.J. Hockenson, but the draft process is going to have to improve quickly if the Vikings want to remain atop the NFC North.