Vikings projected to have one of NFL's five hardest schedules in 2025

Although the NFL schedule with dates and game times won't be revealed until next week, we already know which opponents each team is going to face in 2025. Those are set based on rotating divisional cycles and the order of finish within each division.

On paper, the Vikings are projected to have one of the most difficult schedules of any team in the league this year. Using current Vegas over/under win totals, which are far more relevant than previous-year records, Minnesota has the NFL's fifth-toughest strength of schedule, according to Sharp Football Analysis. Only the Eagles, Lions, Browns, and Giants have tougher projected slates.

Here's a look at Minnesota's opponents, sorted by Vegas win total. (The Vikings' total is 8.5). They're playing against the NFC East, the AFC North, and second-place teams from the NFC South, NFC West, and AFC West.

• Eagles (home): 11.5
• Ravens (home): 11.5
• Lions (home and away): 10.5
• Packers (home and away): 9.5
• Commanders (home): 9.5
• Bengals (home): 9.5
• Chargers (away): 9.5
• Bears (home and away): 8.5
• Steelers (away): 8.5
• Falcons (home): 7.5
• Seahawks (away): 7.5
• Cowboys (away): 7.5
• Browns (away): 5.5
• Giants (away): 5.5

One interesting aspect of the Vikings' schedule is that outside of the annual divisional games, their home slate looks a lot tougher than their road slate. The glass-half-full view of that quirk is that playing tougher opponents like the Eagles and Ravens at home gives Kevin O'Connell's team a better chance to pull off the upset, and trips to play teams like the Browns and Giants present opportunities for road wins. The glass-half-empty view is that they may not have any slam-dunk home games against bad teams (not that there are ever any guaranteed wins in the NFL).

One reason not to be too concerned about this strength of schedule ranking? The exact same thing was true heading into last season. This time last year, the Vikings also had the fifth-toughest SOS in the league, using Vegas win totals. Then a bunch of teams on their schedule — the 49ers, Jets, Falcons, Jaguars, Titans, Bears, and Giants — underperformed their preseason totals. Other than the Falcons (-1.5), each of those teams finished at least 3.5 wins under their projection. The Vikings went 8-0 against that group and recorded 14 total wins, a whopping (and historic) 7.5 more than their preseason total.

So although the Vikings' 2025 schedule appears to be difficult on paper, no one — not even Vegas — knows how the season is going to play out. And if J.J. McCarthy is the player the Vikings believe he is, their loaded roster and excellent coaching staff should give them a chance in every game they play.

It also helps that the Lions, Bears, and Packers have to play similar schedules. Detroit, by virtue of winning the division last year, has to face the Chiefs, Rams, and Buccaneers. That's how they end up with the projected second-toughest slate in the league.

The complete NFL schedule comes out on May 14.