Virginia Women’s Hoops at the Crossroads

In contrast to the shock the men’s program received with the news of Tony Bennett’s sudden departure, the women had an almost tranquil lead-in to the season.  In her first season at Virginia, Coach Amaka Agugua-Hamilton won 15 games, but didn’t have the players available to play in the postseason.  Last year the team won 16 games and won their opening game in the inaugural Women’s Basketball Invitational Tournament.  This year the Hoos won 17 games, but they are staying at home this March and it is unclear how the injuries to Breona Hurd and Latasha Lattimore were received by the selection committees of the Women’s Basketball Invitational Tournament and the National Invitational Tournament.

Fifteen to sixteen to seventeen wins a year; that’s incremental progress and winning more games is better than winning fewer.  And in a bit of a change, Virginia got past opening day of the ACC Tournament – it helped that the Cavaliers didn’t have to play Wake Forest – and got to play in the second round, falling to Cal 75 – 58.

Is this progress, or is this evidence of a team treading water?

Your mileage may vary.

The Team

Any discussion of the players begins and ends with Kymora Johnson.  Last year’s team was led by Cam Taylor and Sam Brunelle, prodigious seniors with egos to match.  This year the team was Johnson’s.  Her counting stats all showed her growth and development:  scoring increased from 15.3 points per game to 17.9, while assists increased half an assist per game to 5.8, and her three-point shooting proficiency increased from 31.7% to 38.4%.  In addition to her three-point marksmanship, she has a nice midrange game and she can finish at the rim against anyone.

More than the numbers, though, Kymora’s improvement could be seen in her game management; she doesn’t run the break so much as she runs the entire team.  She’s picking her spots, important because she played a staggering 37 minutes a game, all without tiring.  I’m less impressed with her being named first team All-ACC (since 15 players were so designated) but she nevertheless deserved the recognition.

The other most impactful player was Miami transfer Latasha Lattimore who had first been recruited by Coach Mox as a sixth-grader.  Lattimore, a career 5.4 ppg and 3.4 boards per game player, had a breakout year averaging 14.3 points and 8.2 rebounds.  Lattimore had big shoes to fill as Virginia lost Taylor, Brunelle and Paris Clark in the front court this season.  She played 30 minutes a game, blocked 2.2 shots per game and yet averaged under two fouls per game.  (Miami had a lot of size last year in the 6’4” Lattimore, 6’ 4” Lazaria Spearman, and 6’6” Kyla Oldacre.  Interestingly, all three transferred and Spearman and Oldacre had similar breakout years at Tennessee and Texas, respectively, as Lattimore had for UVa.)

I would imagine that Paris Clark feels that this year was something of a lost opportunity.  She battled injury and illness, played four fewer games and saw her shooting percentages go down across the board.  She’s typically a very sporadic scorer – she can hit double figures and then score four, six and two points in her next three games – but she did end the season on a streak, reaching double figures in eight straight games.  That is her longest stretch by five games, so maybe she’s turned a corner.  Clark is also the best off-ball defender on the team and perhaps the best free safety in the ACC.

Olivia McGhee’s minutes almost doubled as Coach Mox played a very short rotation, so all her numbers increased and she became the three-point shooter her excellent form suggested she would be.  (McGhee really does have the loveliest form in the ACC.)  My concern is that she became more of a spot-up shooter this year, which is sad because at 6’ 2”, she is big for a wing.  She doesn’t get to the free throw line often enough which is equally sad because she’s a terrific free throw shooter at 85%.  McGhee seems not anywhere close to reaching her potential and if Virginia is going to actually reach the NCAA tournament next year, McGhee is going to have to make the leap next year.

Freshman Breona Hurd walked into the starting lineup from the first day and then had an inconsistent season, alternating between starting and being the first player off the bench.  As opposed to McGhee, Hurd is a 6’ 2” wing who likes to bang under the boards, especially on the offensive glass.  She averaged 9.4 ppg which should increase next year if she stops taking threes and works on her free throw shooting over the summer (she was sub-par in both areas this season.)

Edessa Noyan, like McGhee, saw her minutes double in her second year on Grounds, and she also had an up-and-down year.  Her shooting percentages dropped considerably, but she has nice form and was great from the line, so there is hope going forward.  Noyan’s role was like that of a nose tackle:  to occupy the space in the low block, draw the man-marking responsibility for the opposition’s best big, and leave Lattimore free to provide the rim protection.  She struggled playing increased minutes, especially down the stretch, as she recorded four or five fouls in nine of the team’s last ten games.

The women were bit by the injury bug as Jillian Brown tore her ACL last spring and was out for the season.  Yonta Vaughn missed over two-thirds of the season playing in just nine games.  Coach Mox is as secretive as Bill Bellichick with regards to injuries and when asked about Vaughn’s injury status has been beyond vague.  Vaughn would have allowed Johnson to get a break now and then, as well as play off the ball, thereby changing the point of attack for the Virginia offense.

Hawa Doumbouya, who transferred from Maryland with the express understanding that she would red-shirt this year, has announced her intention to hit the transfer portal this Monday.  Her departure, without having ever played a game, was certainly not on my Bingo card.

The Season

Amidst a disappointing trip to the Discover Puerto Rico Shootout, almost in desperation, Coach Mox brought out a 1 – 3 – 1 zone defense.  It was a sight to see as originally it was the 6’ 4” Lattimore who manned the top of the zone.  As the season progressed it became a 3 – 2 with McGhee up top.  From a tactical point of view, as opposed to merely preservation of a short bench, I approve.  Being able to show multiple defensive fronts is a good thing, but I have no idea if Coach Mox will bring it back with a (hopefully) deeper roster next fall.  As a defensive unit, the Cavaliers were quite good at defending the three, having the third best defense in the ACC.

Recent iterations of these Cavaliers were stout on the boards, both under the offensive and defensive glass, and they were always in the top three or four from the foul line.  Both aspects took a bit of a nose dive this year as the Hoos were decidedly mid-table in both.

There were two things, though, that were more concerning to me this year.  This team took a lot of threes – 720, or fifth in the ACC – yet was a decidedly substandard team from deep.  Virginia was led by Johnson at 38.4%, which is a fine rate, but Notre Dame shot, as a team, 39% from beyond the arc.  McGhee and Noyan were both around 34% and that was it.  The women were the third worst three-point shooting team (30.8%) in the ACC, far closer to last than even middle of the table.  Even full seasons of Yonta Vaughn and Jillian Brown probably would not have helped as they are both career 25% shooters from deep.  Taking a lot of threes, when you’re not particularly good at it, is at best, a recipe for mid-table mediocrity.

Regular readers also know that I think the team is equally poor at running the fast break.  I have watched easily 60 games over the past two years and I am pretty sure I could count the number of outlet passes Virginia has thrown on one hand.  Two things happen when the Hoos get a defensive rebound.  One, the player who gets the rebound takes the ball and tries for the coast-to-coast finish.  This, more often than not, leads to 1 v 2 and 1 v 3 finishes at the rim.  Johnson can convert these attempts, but even for her, it’s still a sucker bet.  Lattimore tried this five or six times the first three games, she’s got a decent handle for a big, but she corrected course pretty quickly and never tried again.  Each of the past two seasons it has taken Paris Clark half a season for her to learn that she’s much better attacking the rim from a set offense than in the open court and she’s cut down on this by the time ACC play rolls around.  And let’s just say that Breona Hurd still has to work on that.

The other thing that happens is that the rebounder hands the ball off to Kymora Johnson who dribbles it up.  Johnson is certainly quick but once the ball is in her hands, it’s not leaving until she gets into the other team’s lane.  The ball never crosses half-court on the fly, rather, it is in Johnson’s hands and she’s simply not as fast as an upcourt pass.  Now part of the problem is that the wing players who are out in front of Johnson aren’t looking for the ball.  Most times those players are running with their backs to Johnson, so even if she wanted to advance the ball quicker, her teammates aren’t giving her the option.

Which brings me to…

The Coach

Coach Mox took over following the Tina Thompson dumpster fire and has re-invigorated the program.  She is confident and has swagger and the fans have returned to the JPJ.  Virginia had the fourth-highest home attendance in the league behind only Notre Dame – the team that spent most of the season in the top 4 and has three first-round draft picks on their roster – and program powerhouses Louisville and NC State.

That matters.

But she is the coach who preaches tempo and pushing the ball and yet presides over a team that doesn’t do it well.  There’s no one formula for winning, but if the stated aim is to get out and run, well, this team’s performance on the break is an indictment of the coach.  It is unfathomable to me that there are so many teams in the ACC that do it way better than the Cavaliers.  And that’s with a very fine point guard running the show.

Mox also has an interesting record as far as team discipline goes.  One source told me that she ran off Taylor Valladay, while Carole Smith was dismissed from the team mid-season two years ago.  Last year as the team was preparing for the WBIT, the team announced that London Clarkson and Kaydan Lawson were no longer with the team.  The announcement was made on little cut-up sheets of paper sprinkled in the press room.  These two players, while limited, were warriors who left it all out on the court for Virginia, and they deserved better.

Now, these four were holdovers from the Tina Thompson regime and they may very well have been the instigators in whatever player v coach dynamic played out.  But given Coach Mox’s reticence to address injuries in the open, a fan can only speculate on the future of RyLee Grays, a useful body who did not make the trip to the ACC Tournament.

The program is more vibrant in year three of the Mox regime – the team’s social media game might be the best of any on Grounds – but I’m not sure the team itself is any better.  We will have to see how Year Four plays out.