Waddle Over To The Book... NOW!

Any time you shake up two rosters after the NFL draft, there will be instant ramifications in the prop market. Granted, this news is obviously already baked into any current prices. That said, the public's focus doesn't fully shift toward NFL until after Independence Day — and I feel strongly this particular line movement's just begun.

Reuniting Jonnu Smith with Arthur Smith in the Steel City's a story for another day. Long story short, there's still no way to tell what Pittsburgh's target tree will look like with new QB Aaron Rodgers and incumbent TE Pat Freiermuth. Conversely, the impact on Miami appears to funnel toward a singular source, WR Jaylen Waddle.

Waddle began his career thriving in Miami's quick-release offense, racking up back-to-back-to-back +1,000 yard seasons. Fast forward to 2024, where a combination of injuries, protection issues, and the arrival of fellow low-ADoT merchant Jonnu Smith collapsed Waddle's production. Suddenly, the former first-rounder out of Alabama posted career-lows in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. But let me ask you, what outside of Jonnu's presence changed?

Taking Jonnu Smith out of the Fins' offensive picture without any type of lateral replacement means freeing up +110 quality targets, mostly within ten yards of the line of scrimmage (image below) — precisely where Waddle buttered his bread since entering the NFL.

LAGHEZZA'S LEAN:

The case for betting the over on Waddle's receiving yards is as plain as the big nose on my face... stay healthy and resume a time-tested trajectory. Remember, you can deploy the very best analysis yet fail in execution without the proper due diligence of line shopping — and we couldn't have a better case in point than this play right here.

• MGM: Over 875.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
• Draftkings: Over 925.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
• Fanduel: Over 950.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Imagine electing to go over the highest line at the worst price, sheesh. However, if and when this line's universally set at +950 yards by week's end, don't say I didn't warn you. 

He or she who hesitates, is lost. So make sure you shop around before tailing me on JAYLEN WADDLE OVER 875.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-110) on MGM

BET SMALL, BET SMART, BET RESPONSIBLY

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