Washington Commanders 2025 Win Total: A Recipe for Heartbreak

The Commanders shocked everyone last season, going from lovable losers to NFC Championship game participants. That goes to show how inept Dan Snyder was as an owner, and since he’s gone, this franchise is on the up. But now the bookmakers are asking us to believe this magical mystery tour continues with a 9.5-win season? Which is a surprising number, until you dive deep into the team.

Why the Commanders Will Disappoint in 2025

The Commanders went 12-5 last season, which sounds impressive until you realize they were basically the NFL’s version of fool’s gold. Here’s the kicker that should have every Commanders fan sweating: Washington went 4-1 in games decided by three points or fewer. That’s not sustainable, folks. That’s like expecting lightning to strike the same spot twice while you’re standing there holding a metal rod.

Since the league expanded to 17 games, six teams have won 10-plus games while winning at least 80% of their field-goal games. Want to guess how many improved in the following season? Zero. Zilch. Nada. The average decline for these teams? A whopping 5.3 wins.

The Schedule Reality Check

Remember when the Commanders faced the second-easiest schedule in the league last season? Those days are done as this year, Washington faces one of the hardest schedules with eight games against playoff teams. Last season, they went 1-4 against playoff teams. Their lone victory? A home win against Philadelphia, where the Eagles basically gift-wrapped them a victory by blowing a 13-point lead after Jalen Hurts left the game. That’s not exactly championship-caliber dominance.

But wait, there’s more! The Commanders now face nine defenses that finished 12th or better in DVOA last season. Remember, this is a team that ranked sixth in offensive DVOA while playing the fourth-easiest set of opposing defenses. When your offense takes a step back – and it will – what exactly is going to carry this team?

The Defense Remains a Problem Child

Here’s something that’ll keep Dan Quinn up at night: the Commanders still have one of the weakest defenses in the league. While everyone’s getting all starry-eyed about their offensive improvements, nobody’s talking about how this defense is still softer than a marshmallow in July.

You can’t win consistently in the NFL when your defense gives up points like it’s Halloween candy. The Commanders made some moves, sure, but let’s not pretend they’ve transformed into the ’85 Bears overnight.

Why Smart Money Takes the Under

The magic number is 9.5 wins, and frankly, that feels generous. The Commanders are a team that caught lightning in a bottle last season, riding an unsustainable record in close games to heights they had no business reaching.

This isn’t about hating on Washington – it’s about understanding regression to the mean. When a team outperforms expectations by that much in one season, the pendulum usually swings back hard the other way. On a side note, they may really have something in Jayden Daniels with how he played last year.

The Verdict: Under 9.5 Wins is the Play