Week 11 AFC South predictions: Jags, Texans jockey for division supremacy

The AFC South split its games last week with the Houston Texans upsetting the Cincinnati Bengals and the Indianapolis Colts holding off the New England Patriots in a snooze-fest in Germany. The Jacksonville Jaguars were embarrassed by the San Francisco 49ers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers rolled through the Tennessee Titans. 

Here are predictions for Week 11’s slate of games:

Indianapolis Colts (5-5): Bye 

 Houston Texans (5-4) vs. Arizona Cardinals (2-8): The return of Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray – who threw for 249 yards and rushed for 33 yards and a touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons  on Sunday in his first game since last December – changes the complexion of this game drastically. Arizona should at least be competitive against the upstart Texans, who are just one game back of the AFC South lead.

C.J. Stroud, who leads the NFL in passing yards per game (291.8), is not only having a rookie season for the record books, he’s worked his way into the MVP discussion. First-year head coach DeMeco Ryans has also done a solid job of revamping Houston’s defense, which ranked 30th last year but 21st this year.

As hot as Stroud is, it’s hard to bet against him right now. A game that many predicted to be uninteresting during the offseason is now suddenly one of the more intriguing matchups on the Week 11 schedule.

PREDICTION: Texans 32, Cardinals 27

Jacksonville Jaguars (6-3) vs. Tennessee Titans (3-6): The Jaguars are an enigma. Much like many media pundits, I’m still trying to decide if they’re a legit playoff contender or if they’ve simply padded their record with softball wins over the Falcons, Indianapolis Colts (twice), Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints. Their win over the Buffalo Bills in Week 5 now looks less impressive given Buffalo's recent stretch of losing three-of-four and the subsequent firing of offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey.

The Jags got shellacked last week by the 49ers and Trevor Lawrence looked lost against a truly elite defense. He was sacked five times, threw two interceptions and lost a fumble in the 34-3 defeat. San Francisco also held Travis Etienne to a season-low 35 yards rushing. The good news is the Titans defense is nowhere near the level of the 49ers defense, with Tennessee ranking 16th in total defense.

For the first time in three starts, Titans rookie QB Will Levis looked human against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 10. He threw for just 199 yards and an interception and Tennessee’s offense mustered just 209 total yards against the Buccaneers, who held Derrick Henry to 24 yards – his second-lowest rushing output since 2018.

While Levis will likely rebound from his poor performance, the Jaguars just have more offensive firepower plus a top-five run defense. They should have no problem taking care of the 3-6 Titans.

PREDICTION: Jaguars 31, Titans 17