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Week 11 Best Bets: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers running back Jaylen Warren (30) returns a kick in the first quarter of the NFL Week 18 game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh on Saturday, Jan. 4, 2025. Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The bye week has come and gone, and hopefully the Bengals defense is as rejuvenated as I am to win to close out the season. After a dismal 1-4 Week 9, our total stats leading up to the break sit at 17-18 for +5.1 units. Let’s win five units this week alone, shall we?

Jaylen Warren 60+ Alternate Rushing Yards + Noah Fant 20+ Alternate Receiving Yards (+112 FanDuel)

The Lions in Week 5 was the last Bengals opponent whose leading rusher did not eclipse 90 rushing yards. Warren should have enough opportunity and efficiency to hit this line rather easily. We also revisit the Flacco-Fant connection to push this parlay to plus odds.

My Bet Backers:

  • The Bengals have allowed nine running backs to eclipse 60 rushing yards so far, a mark that Warren has hit in three of his past four games
  • While much has been made about Warren’s lack of snaps in the Steelers offense last week, he still saw 14 carries on his 24 snaps, a strong usage rate
  • The Steelers have allowed every tight end room to exceed 20 receiving yards this season, including 44 to Fant in Week 7

Jaylen Warren 100+ Alternate Rushing Yards + Game Total Points OVER 49.5 (+430 DraftKings)

The risk with laddering a player prop is you may end up losing more than one bet, however, I plan on winning this half unit play based on the data.

My Bet Backers:

  • Warren’s rush attempts line is set at 16.5, juiced to the over. The Bengals are allowing an average of 124 rushing yards to primary backs that have at least 16 carries
  • Five backs have surpassed 100 yards against the Bengals on the ground this season, with four of them setting season-highs against this defense (including Warren’s 127 in Week 7)
  • The Steelers offense struggled last week, but they still have put up at least 23 points in 4/5 games, not to mention the Bengals defense which of course has allowed 27+ points in seven straight contests

Calvin Austin OVER 32.5 Receiving Yards + Pat Freiermuth OVER 2.5 Receptions (+200 FanDuel)

The Bengals have struggled with tackling and defending tight ends. The Steelers have a receiver that sees lots of short throws and a tight end that has terrorized Cincinnati over the years.

My Bet Backers:

  • Austin missed the first matchup in Cincinnati, but since his return to action has led the Steelers in targets
  • Last week, Austin saw seven targets and while he recorded just 14 yards, a dropped slant and lack of sideline awareness cost him another 20+ yards
  • While Freiermuth has averaged just 17 routes run in the three games since last facing the Bengals, he has still earned the third most targets for the Steelers over that timeframe, and caught 82% of them
  • As mentioned nearly weekly, the Bengals have allowed now 11 different tight ends to catch at least three passes in a game, including a 6/111 performance from Freiermuth in Week 7

Ja’Marr Chase 8+ Alternate Receptions + Tee Higgins 60+ Alternate  Receiving Yards + Joe Flacco 24+ Alternate Passing Completions (+200 DraftKings)

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While I usually save 3+ leg parlays for the lottos, I used alt lines to bet on the Bengals passing game against a defense that has allowed 300+ passing yards in four of their last six contests.

My Bet Backers:

  • Chase was HEAVILY utilized in the last matchup against Pittsburgh, seeing an astounding 23 targets. While that type of usage may be unlikely again, he has double digit catches in 3/4 games with Flacco at the helm
  • Over the last few weeks, receivers lined up out wide have had success vs the Steelers: Quentin Johnston 4/33, Christian Watson 2/52, Alec Pierce 6/115, and Michael Pittman 7/96. Tee has come on as of late, with games of 121, 44, 96 and 62 with Flacco
  • The Steelers have struggled against the pass in general, allowing all but one quarterback to complete at least 24 passes since Week 3
  • Flacco has smashed this line in 3/4 games with the Bengals, averaging 28 completions over the last four games

This week I am trying something a little different, as I am allowing the Bengals community to help build the long-shot parlay. Be sure to comment on my X post with your favorite Anytime Touchdown scorer for Steelers - Bengals and I will be choosing a few to put into one parlay. If the bet hits, one lucky commenter will receive $50.

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*DISCLAIMER* This is not intended to be betting advice, rather these are some props I like and will be placing my money on. While I use data and research to support my picks, there is no such thing as a sure bet. Always remember to only bet amounts you are comfortable losing.


This article first appeared on Cincinnati Bengals on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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