Week 12 AFC South predictions: Texans-Jags matchup could decide the division

With the Indianapolis Colts as the lone idle team, the AFC South went 2-1 last week with the Houston Texans holding off the Arizona Cardinals, 21-16, and the Jacksonville Jaguars rolling past the Tennessee Titans, 34-14. Here are predictions for Week 12’s slate of games:

Houston Texans (6-4) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3): The last time these two teams faced each other, the Texans ran roughshod through the Jaguars in a 20-point blowout in Week 3, and that was before C.J. Stroud worked his way into the league MVP discussion and Devin Singletary established himself as a legit lead running back.

The Jaguars have been red-hot since that loss to the Texans, losing just once to the San Francisco 49ers in that seven-game span. Houston has the No. 8-ranked run defense, so Jacksonville will have to find ways to get Travis Etienne involved even if he’s not running it much. Conversely, the Texans have the eighth-worst pass defense, so if the Jags stand a chance of winning, Trevor Lawrence is going to have to sling it around. He has eight touchdowns and four interceptions in Jacksonville’s last seven games.

The Texans are also on a hot streak, winning six of their last eight games with two slight hiccups against the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers (both were two-point defeats). Stroud is averaging nearly 300 yards passing per game, and Nico Collins, Tank Dell or Noah Brown are all a threat to put up 100 yards any given week (Houston has had a 100-yard receiver each of the last three games). The Jacksonville defense, which allows the fourth-most passing yards per game, has its work cut out.

PREDICTION: Texans 31, Jaguars 22

Indianapolis Colts (5-5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6): The bye week came at a perfect time for the Colts following their two-game winning streak, allowing key players like receiver Josh Downs, cornerback Julius Brents and offensive lineman Ryan Kelly to rest up before the stretch run.

The Bucs allow the second-most passing yards per game (270.1), and three of their top four cornerbacks have allowed a completion percentage of 68% or higher. This could be the perfect game for Gardner Minshew to throw it 40-plus times and let Downs, Michael Pittman Jr. and Isaiah McKenzie put the Bucs secondary to work. 

Conversely, the Colts secondary has its flaws, and for as well as Baker Mayfield is playing this year, he could have a big day against Indy’s corners much like Stroud (384 yards, two touchdowns), Matthew Stafford (319 yards, one touchdown), Ryan Tannehill (264 yards) and Derek Carr (310 yards, two touchdowns) did.

On paper, the Colts should win this game. They have a better offense, a better defense and the better running back, and they’re playing at home. But for some reason, I can’t shake the feeling Tampa pulls out a win in this one.

PREDICTION: Bucs 24, Colts 18

Tennessee Titans (3-7) vs. Carolina Panthers (1-9): In looking at the Titans' seven remaining games, this may be the only one that’s actually winnable. The rest are against teams that are still in the playoff hunt. Derrick Henry has been off his game the last three weeks, and playing a Panthers run defense that concedes nearly 130 yards rushing per game could be just what he needs to get back on track.

The same can’t be said for rookie QB Will Levis, who faces a Carolina pass defense that’s sixth-best in the NFL and allowing under 180 yards passing per game. But if Henry is getting yards in bunches, Levis may not have to do too much or try to will the Titans to a win. Both offenses aren’t great, so this should be a low-scoring affair, but Tennessee has a few more playmakers than Carolina does, and that could be the difference.

PREDICTION: Titans 26, Panthers 19