Week 13 AFC South predictions: Titans in position to spoil Colts’ playoff hopes

The AFC South had one of its better showings in Week 12 as the Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans each won their respective games over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Houston Texans and Carolina Panthers. Houston was the lone team in the division to suffer a defeat. Here are predictions for Week 13’s slate of games:

Houston Texans (6-6) vs. Denver Broncos (6-5): The Texans have certainly proved they are for real, pushing the division-leading Jags to the brink last week. Had kicker Matt Ammendola got an extra six inches on his 58-yard field goal attempt in the final seconds, the Texans could’ve tied it and given themselves a shot in overtime. 

The Broncos, on the other hand, are still an enigma. After a 1-5 start, they’ve reeled off five straight wins — four of which came against teams in playoff contention (Kansas City, Buffalo, Minnesota, Cleveland) — and they could move into a playoff spot with a win over Houston.

Sean Payton has done a remarkable job turning things around in a few short weeks, but Denver has the third-worst defense in the NFL, which allows 388.2 yards of total offense and 25.5 points per game. 

That’s not going to cut it against a Texans offense that ranks sixth in total yards (374.9 per game) and 10th in scoring (23.5 points per game), led by MVP candidate C.J. Stroud, who leads the NFL in passing yards per game (296.9) and is tied for the seventh-most touchdown passes this year (19).

PREDICTION: Texans 30, Broncos 17

Indianapolis Colts (6-5) vs. Tennessee Titans (4-7): Will Levis had two really good first starts after taking over for Ryan Tannehill right before Halloween, but he’s since cooled off in his last three. It also doesn’t help that Derrick Henry has rushed for 100 or more yards just twice this year, and if Henry’s off the rest of Tennessee’s offense usually is too. 

In 15 career games against the Colts, Henry has averaged 88.7 yards rushing and scored just seven touchdowns, per StatMuse, which doesn’t exactly bode well for the Titans’ hopes of getting him going this week.

Conversely, the last time Indianapolis had a 100-yard rusher was when Zack Moss went off for 165 yards and two touchdowns when Indy played Tennessee in Week 5. Moss is in line to get the start Sunday with Jonathan Taylor shelved with a thumb injury that required surgery. 

Unlike the last meeting, Gardner Minshew will start instead of coming off the bench for Anthony Richardson, which isn’t a good thing for the Tennessee defense. Minshew has won his last two games against the Titans, and he has a 3-2 record against them in his career with 887 yards passing, six touchdowns and two interceptions. 

Oh, and the Titans have only ever sacked Minshew twice in 122 drop backs. This one should be competitive, but Indy is the slight favorite.

PREDICTION: Colts 28, Titans 26

Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (5-6): With no Joe Burrow, this game is significantly less intriguing and less impactful for the AFC playoff race as well. Jake Browning put up solid numbers last week (19-of-26, 227 yards, one touchdown, one interception), but he simply doesn’t have the talent to lead the Bengals on any kind of late-season playoff run.

The Jaguars are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now, winning seven of their last eight games (their lone loss was against the San Francisco 49ers) with an offense that’s really hit its stride. 

Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has scored 12 touchdowns and thrown just five interceptions since Oct. 1, and he ranks 10th in the league in yards and 11th in passer rating. Running back Travis Etienne has also found a groove. He’s seventh in the league in rushing (727 yards) and eighth in yards from scrimmage (1,038).

The Bengals surrender the second-most yards (389.3), and with no Burrow, a banged up Tee Higgins and a run game that averages an NFL-worst 75.8 yards per game, they just don’t have the firepower to keep up with Lawrence and company.

PREDICTION: Jaguars 38, Bengals 21