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Week 14 NFL mismatches: How Patriots, Ravens could struggle
Yardbarker's Michael Nania analyzes the biggest positional mismatches each week during the NFL season.
GLOSSARY:
DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average): A method of evaluating teams, units or players in a comparative fashion. It takes every play during the NFL season and compares each to a league-average baseline based on situation.
EPA (Estimated Points Added): The measure of a play’s impact on the score of the game. It represents the difference between a team's "expected points value" (the net point value a team can expect given a particular combination of down, distance and field position) before and after a play.
Chiefs pass defense vs. Patriots passing attack
Why Patriots are overmatched: The Patriots have scored fewer than 24 points in four consecutive games, something they had not done since 2009. They are 15th in scoring per drive (1.95 points), their lowest ranking since 2003 (19th).
A surprisingly dormant Tom Brady-led passing attack is a major part of the problem. Brady has posted a passer rating below 90 (league average 91) in four consecutive games, his longest such streak since 2013 and tied for the second longest of his career (six games in 2006). Brady has averaged only 5.8 yards per attempt over this span (league average 7.3). Skill-position players have done Brady no favors with 10 dropped passes over the past four weeks, third most in the NFL.
Why Chiefs have edge: Kansas City's run-stopping issues are well documented (30th in run defense DVOA), but the pass defense is excellent (sixth in DVOA). The Chiefs shut down the Raiders' Derek Carr and Chargers' Philip Rivers over their past two games, holding them to a combined two touchdowns, six interceptions and a 57.7 passer rating. Kansas City also shut down Baltimore's Lamar Jackson (70.6 passer rating vs. Chiefs, his second lowest of season) and Houston's Deshaun Watson (77.5 passer rating, fourth lowest) earlier this season.
The Chiefs have several players thriving in the back end. Bashaud Breeland has allowed 0.80 yards per cover snap, which ranks 11th best among qualified cornerbacks. Tyrann Mathieu has taken on a heavy load in coverage and handled it excellently. He has faced 49 targets, second most among safeties, and allowed a passer rating of 71.1 (fifth lowest among the 32 safeties with 25-plus targets). Safety Juan Thornhill has allowed 0.23 yards per target, eighth best among safeties.
Fantasy impact: Kansas City's defense has produced at a high level over its past two games, racking up four sacks, seven takeaways and allowing only 27 points. However, while the Chiefs' defense may hold the New England offense to a low scoring total, it is unlikely they will continue their takeaway hot streak. Brady has turned the ball over just twice over five home games.
How Chiefs do it: Mathieu, signed as a free agent in the off-season, is a great addition for Kansas City. He has executed at a high level in a variety of coverage roles. In Kansas City's Week 13 win over Oakland, Mathieu set the tone early with an interception of Carr on the game's opening drive. Mathieu (#32) begins the play over Tyrell Williams in the slot, on the defense's right side. Mathieu carries Williams deep, then makes a beautiful transition to tight end Darren Waller's out-breaking route as he sees Carr begin to wind up. Carr, already having begun his throwing motion before Mathieu broke on Waller, throws the ball right into Mathieu's chest for the pick. Tremendous anticipation and awareness by Mathieu.
— Yardbarker All-22 (@22Yardbarker) December 4, 2019
Bills rushing attack vs. Ravens run defense
Why Ravens are overmatched: Baltimore, which leads the NFL in point differential (plus-187), does not have many weaknesses. The Ravens have a top-three pass offense, pass defense, and rush offense, according to DVOA. Run defense represents their one major hole, as the Ravens are ranked 22nd in yards per attempt (4.5), 24th in EPA, and 25th in DVOA.
Big plays have been an issue for the Baltimore run defense. The Ravens have allowed a gain of 15-plus yards on 6.8 percent of opposing rush attempts, sixth worst in the league. They have also yielded an average of 1.15 open field yards (yards gained over 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage) per running back carry, third worst. Power situations have been another problem. On third or fourth down with three yards or fewer to go, the Ravens have given up a conversion 75 percent of the time, tied for fifth worst.
Why Bills have edge: Buffalo's rushing attack is the core of its offense, ranking fifth in yards per game (137.9), seventh in EPA and 10th in DVOA. The Bills feature a one-two punch at running back with a pair of varying styles. Devin Singletary is the breakaway threat, ranking second among running backs with 5.6 yards per carry. Frank Gore is the muscle, leading the team with 146 carries and ranking 18th in the NFL with 311 yards after contact. However, Josh Allen is the most dangerous aspect of Buffalo's ground game. Allen leads all quarterbacks with eight rushing touchdowns, tied for sixth most among all players. He is second among quarterbacks in rushing first downs (35) behind Baltimore's Lamar Jackson.
The Bills are well equipped to exploit Baltimore's weaknesses against the run. Singletary will expose the Ravens' big play-vulnerability. He has picked up a gain of 15-plus on 12.2 percent of his carries (12 of 98), the highest rate among qualified running backs. In the short-yardage game, Allen is a major force. He ranks second among all players with 14 conversions on third or fourth down with three or fewer yards to go, trailing only Jackson.
Fantasy impact: Since Week 9, Allen ranks second among quarterbacks in standard scoring with 23.9 points per game. Buffalo's offense is well suited to take advantage of Baltimore's weak spots on defense. That should set up Allen with plenty of chances in the red zone, where his total of 18 touchdowns (10 passing, eight rushing) is tied for fourth-most among quarterbacks.
How Bills do it: As soon as the Bills enter the red zone, Allen is a threat to score. He has an excellent nose for the end zone, particularly to his right. Allen has scored multiple touchdowns by simply seeking out the front right pylon and sticking the ball over. Here, Allen sees the sea of green turf to his right, and uses his upper-echelon speed and finishing power to scamper in for the 15-yard score against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day.
— Yardbarker All-22 (@22Yardbarker) December 4, 2019
Eagles WR Alshon Jeffery vs. Giants CB DeAndre Baker
Why Baker is overmatched: Teams have aired it out with ease against the Giants all season. New York has allowed 8.5 yards per pass attempt, worst in the NFL. Big plays have been a huge problem. The Giants have given up 12 touchdown passes of 20-plus yards, tied with the Dolphins for most in the league. Overall, the Giants are ranked 30th in pass defense DVOA.
Rookie cornerback DeAndre Baker has been burned frequently. In 58 targets in his direction, Baker has yielded six touchdowns and forced no interceptions. His 135.3 passer rating allowed is the worst among qualified cornerbacks. Opponents have averaged 11.3 targets when throwing at Baker, third worst among corners.
Why Jeffery has edge: Jeffery is a week removed from dominating the Dolphins, one of the few teams with a pass defense as bad as the Giants'. In his return from injury, Jeffery caught nine passes for 137 yards and a touchdown, with all nine receptions resulting in a conversion. Five different Dolphins were victimized for a first down by Jeffery, who asserted his will on whatever coverage Miami threw at him. With the Eagles reeling and their skill-position players struggling, expect Carson Wentz to frequently target Jeffery.
Fantasy impact: Jeffery ranked third among wide receivers in standard scoring last week with 19.7 points. He has had a tendency to stack strong games in the past. In seven career games following performances with 100-plus yards and a touchdown, Jeffery has collected 667 receiving yards and five touchdowns (95.3 and 0.7 average). Playing against a soft defense with a struggling rookie cornerback, Jeffery has a good chance to beat those numbers.
How Jeffery does it: Baker, who plays primarily right corner, should see plenty of Jeffery, who tends to see most of his action from the left side. Jeffery's size (6-foot-3 and 218 pounds) will present a mismatch for Baker (5-foot-11 and 180 pounds), especially in man-to-man situations. Jeffery is a good route-runner for his size, making him a dangerous matchup for anybody.
Jeffery's first catch against Miami was the result of a one-on-one win against man coverage from the left side, a perfect example of how he may dominate Baker and the Giants with consistency on Monday. Jeffery (top of picture) does a good job staying vertical against Ken Webster, then gives a sharp break outside to separate. Although the catch is not the cleanest, he manages to haul in the slightly awry pass, completing a chain-moving play that was created by his route-running ability.
— Yardbarker All-22 (@22Yardbarker) December 4, 2019
More must-reads:
- NFL Week 14 matchups: An insiders' guide
- Yardbarker's Week 14 NFL picks, game previews
- The 'Season rushing TD leaders by NFL team' quiz
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TODAY'S BEST
Who could be the odd man out in Browns QB room?
The Cleveland Browns entered the preseason with four quarterbacks competing for the starting job, but don't expect all of them to be on the 53-man roster. On Sunday, Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski announced he will name a starting QB before the team's final preseason game against the Los Angeles Rams on Saturday at 1 p.m. ET on NFL Network. He also indicated they won't keep all of them on the active roster. "I think we'll let it play out as we get closer to the cut down," Stefanski told the media. "Those are all conversations that we are always having, but those are tough decisions. You know, I'd like to keep everybody, but that's not realistic." Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett and rookies Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel have been competing for the starting QB job throughout the offseason. Flacco will likely win it. The 40-year-old played for Stefanski in 2023, helping the Browns make the playoffs. That season, he went 4-1 in five starts, winning Comeback Player of the Year. Sanders and Gabriel, meanwhile, have flashed potential in their preseason starts. Sanders — a fifth-round pick out of Colorado — finished 14-of-23 passing for 138 yards and two touchdowns in a 30-10 win over the Carolina Panthers on Aug. 8. Gabriel —a third-round pick out of Oregon — went 13-of-18 passing for 143 yards and one interception in a 22-13 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles Saturday. With that in mind, Pickett seems like the odd man out. The 27-year-old didn't look like a viable starter in his first three seasons with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles, tossing 15 touchdown passes and 14 interceptions in 30 regular-season games. Teams that need another backup QB (Los Angeles Rams, Dallas Cowboys) may be interested in Pickett. This past Tuesday, Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer told WKRK-FM in Cleveland he could see a team trade for the former Pittsburgh Panthers star. Regardless, figure on the Browns moving on from Pickett before the start of the regular season in September. He lacks a clear advantage over the other QBs.
After Watching the Film, Critical Assessments Arise Regarding the Raiders
HENDERSON, Nev.—The Las Vegas Raiders began the preseason with a record of 0-1-1 after losing to their former Bay Area rivals, the San Francisco 49ers, last night. I had the opportunity to review the film today, as did Pete Carroll. After discussing it with him, several observations emerged that can only be made with the clarity of hindsight. In our latest episode of the Las Vegas Raiders Insider Podcast, we take you to today’s joint practice with the San Francisco 49ers to highlight specific players who had standout performances, those who faced challenges, and those who may have secured a spot on the roster. You can watch the entire podcast below: Pete Carroll’s leadership has been phenomenal for a franchise desperate for a winner. He has been the exact prescription the Raider Nation needed After watching the film of the loss to the San Francisco 49ers, Carroll addressed several questions, and below is a partial transcript of his responses. Head Coach Pete Carroll Q: I was curious on what your thoughts are on the play of your linebackers and your quarterbacks last night? Head Coach Pete Carroll: "Thought the linebackers were really downhill, really aggressive, flashy. I really liked the way those guys played. I thought we took a step forward in the run game and just attacking line of scrimmage like we want to. We played to the nature of our players, I thought, which is really good because we're aggressive in the tackling, and that showed up. Geno [Smith] was on the money. He was right on everything. Tempo was good. I thought Aidan [O'Connell] continued to little bit -- we're not quite as fast when he's playing. We don't play as quick from huddle to the snap, still trying to work that out. And he made a poor choice on the throw for the pick, unfortunately. It was a crucial time, that was tough. Just the guy was covered, and if he had to it throw away or take off, we would have preferred that." Q: I wanted to ask you about Geno Smith. Back when the two of you were in Seattle when he was playing backup to Russell Wilson, was there ever a time or a moment in practice or in the meeting room where you kind of had this idea that, if given the opportunity like he has the last few years he was in Seattle, now in Las Vegas, that he can be this quality star? Was there ever a moment when he was a backup under Russell that kind of gave you that idea that Geno had that potential? Coach Carroll: "Yeah, I think it was probably in the middle of those first couple of years, and you'd just see him maintain the competitive edge because it's kind of hard to believe that a guy could compete like he's going to play. What I keep telling you is the very next play, he knew he could be in. He seemed like he held onto that long enough, I sensed that and respected that. And his arm talent was always there, the ability to throw and rip the ball, so I was cheerleading for him. And that's kind of when he finally got his chance, I might have been his biggest cheerleader because he had waited and deserved it, and he came in and played really well and almost won a game that way, and then played well the next couple weeks. That was, at the time, when he finally got his chance, and he got out there, he demonstrated it, but you could sense it earlier than that just because he was so dedicated and he looked so good in practice all the time." Q: Obviously your offensive line has been performing well, but there's a clear drop off between the first and second team. How concerned are you about that second string offensive line? Coach Carroll: "Well, we're just so young on the second group. It's just going to take time. We feel like we move well. We have good movement by the young guys. They get out of their stance, and they get on people well. We're just not as accurate with our calls. We're not as clear with our technique stuff, but that takes time. And so I'm not worried about that. Athletically, we're okay, and we just need to find our consistency, and that's just going to take time. They won't play all at the same time very often. They'll spot in, and they'll have the benefit of experienced guys making calls around them and helping them play better. And so I think that the individual development is pretty good. As a group, they're still learning. That's going to take a bit." We'd appreciate it if you would follow us on X @HondoCarpenter and IG @HondoSr , and let’s talk about the Silver and Black’s training camp and Pete Carroll’s comments.
Did the Dallas Stars just get handed a surprise top-six option on waivers?
The NHL waiver wire is heating up as training camps approach, and the Dallas Stars could be positioned to make a sneaky claim that solves one of their biggest depth concerns. Every year, playoff-caliber teams see useful players slip onto waivers simply because of cap space or roster crunches. Waivers often surface players who can slot higher in the lineup than expected. Last year's examples included Eeli Tolvanen, who went from waiver claim to impact forward in Seattle. That kind of opportunity might now exist again, and the Stars have an opening in their top nine that could benefit from an under-the-radar pickup. In the case, the player in question is Jansen Harkins, who surprisingly hit waivers this week. Known for his speed and ability to drive play when given the right linemates, Harkins is the type of versatile forward who could slide up and down a lineup. He showed flashes of offensive skill in Winnipeg and Pittsburgh, and now at 28 years old, he might be hitting the stage of his career where opportunity and experience finally align. Why the waiver wire could be Dallas's hidden weapon As NHL.com pointed out, training camp always produces bubble players squeezed out of deep rosters. This year, names like former first-round picks and skilled but inconsistent wingers could be exposed. If Dallas wanted to roll the dice, they could target a cost-controlled forward who brings both energy and finishing ability. Adding a cap-friendly waiver piece could also free GM Jim Nill from needing to burn trade capital later in the season. "The waiver wire can be a goldmine if you're patient and know what you need. One man's cut is another team's solution," one NHL scout recently told Sportsnet. The Stars' depth chart shows room for such a gamble. With veterans like Evgenii Dadonov and Mikael Granlund gone, the bottom six has new minutes up for grabs. A waiver claim could be the simplest way to plug that gap without sacrificing draft picks. I think Dallas would be wise to keep an eye on the wire, because sometimes the quietest moves are the ones that swing playoff races.
Giants’ Abdul Carter Sends Heated Message to Jets After Embarrassing Play on Saturday
Once a proud franchise, the New York Giants have struggled to sustain themselves among the NFL elites this century. Legendary quarterback Eli Manning won the team two Super Bowls, but Giants fans have been in misery since he retired in 2020. Outside of Saquon Barkley, who left for the Philadelphia Eagles last offseason, New York hasn’t had many players to instill hope. However, the Giants selected Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter with the No. 3 overall pick in this year’s draft, rejuvenating the fanbase. Although he wasn’t the first pick, Carter is widely believed to be the best prospect in the draft. He’s been compared to many star pass rushers, but the name that sticks out the most is Dallas Cowboys superstar Micah Parsons. Both men played for the Nittany Lions, and with eerily similar athleticism and body composition, the comparison makes total sense. Carter has been getting his feet wet in the preseason, and during Saturday’s game against the New York Jets, he got his welcome to the league moment. During a pass rush attempt, the rookie was immediately pancaked by a tight end making a chip block before being knocked to the ground again by the right tackle. The NFL’s official Twitter account posted the highlight, but likely after seeing all the jokes being made about the play, Carter fired back. The college star will learn over time that it’s better to just let these things pass, or not take yourself too seriously and laugh along with the crowd. The internet is a ruthless place, so now that Carter has shown signs of insecurity, he will almost certainly be provoked again in the future. As long as health is on his side, Carter will have a long and prosperous career, so he’ll have more than enough opportunities to redeem himself from this lowlight.
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