Week 14 NFL mismatches: How Patriots, Ravens could struggle

Bills rushing attack vs. Ravens run defense

Why Ravens are overmatched: Baltimore, which leads the NFL in point differential (plus-187), does not have many weaknesses. The Ravens have a top-three pass offense, pass defense, and rush offense, according to DVOA. Run defense represents their one major hole, as the Ravens are ranked 22nd in yards per attempt (4.5), 24th in EPA, and 25th in DVOA.

Big plays have been an issue for the Baltimore run defense. The Ravens have allowed a gain of 15-plus yards on 6.8 percent of opposing rush attempts, sixth worst in the league. They have also yielded an average of 1.15 open field yards (yards gained over 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage) per running back carry, third worst. Power situations have been another problem. On third or fourth down with three yards or fewer to go, the Ravens have given up a conversion 75 percent of the time, tied for fifth worst.

Why Bills have edge: Buffalo's rushing attack is the core of its offense, ranking fifth in yards per game (137.9), seventh in EPA and 10th in DVOA. The Bills feature a one-two punch at running back with a pair of varying styles. Devin Singletary is the breakaway threat, ranking second among running backs with 5.6 yards per carry. Frank Gore is the muscle, leading the team with 146 carries and ranking 18th in the NFL with 311 yards after contact. However, Josh Allen is the most dangerous aspect of Buffalo's ground game. Allen leads all quarterbacks with eight rushing touchdowns, tied for sixth most among all players. He is second among quarterbacks in rushing first downs (35) behind Baltimore's Lamar Jackson.

The Bills are well equipped to exploit Baltimore's weaknesses against the run. Singletary will expose the Ravens' big play-vulnerability. He has picked up a gain of 15-plus on 12.2 percent of his carries (12 of 98), the highest rate among qualified running backs. In the short-yardage game, Allen is a major force. He ranks second among all players with 14 conversions on third or fourth down with three or fewer yards to go, trailing only Jackson.

Fantasy impact: Since Week 9, Allen ranks second among quarterbacks in standard scoring with 23.9 points per game. Buffalo's offense is well suited to take advantage of Baltimore's weak spots on defense. That should set up Allen with plenty of chances in the red zone, where his total of 18 touchdowns (10 passing, eight rushing) is tied for fourth-most among quarterbacks.

How Bills do it: As soon as the Bills enter the red zone, Allen is a threat to score. He has an excellent nose for the end zone, particularly to his right. Allen has scored multiple touchdowns by simply seeking out the front right pylon and sticking the ball over. Here, Allen sees the sea of green turf to his right, and uses his upper-echelon speed and finishing power to scamper in for the 15-yard score against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day.

Eagles WR  Alshon Jeffery vs. Giants CB DeAndre Baker

Why Baker is overmatched: Teams have aired it out with ease against the Giants all season. New York has allowed 8.5 yards per pass attempt, worst in the NFL. Big plays have been a huge problem. The Giants have given up 12 touchdown passes of 20-plus yards, tied with the Dolphins for most in the league. Overall, the Giants are ranked 30th in pass defense DVOA.

Rookie cornerback DeAndre Baker has been burned frequently. In 58 targets in his direction, Baker has yielded six touchdowns and forced no interceptions. His 135.3 passer rating allowed is the worst among qualified cornerbacks. Opponents have averaged 11.3 targets when throwing at Baker, third worst among corners.

Why Jeffery has edge: Jeffery is a week removed from dominating the Dolphins, one of the few teams with a pass defense as bad as the Giants'. In his return from injury, Jeffery caught nine passes for 137 yards and a touchdown, with all nine receptions resulting in a conversion. Five different Dolphins were victimized for a first down by Jeffery, who asserted his will on whatever coverage Miami threw at him. With the Eagles reeling and their skill-position players struggling, expect Carson Wentz to frequently target Jeffery.

Fantasy impact: Jeffery ranked third among wide receivers in standard scoring last week with 19.7 points. He has had a tendency to stack strong games in the past. In seven career games following performances with 100-plus yards and a touchdown, Jeffery has collected 667 receiving yards and five touchdowns (95.3 and 0.7 average). Playing against a soft defense with a struggling rookie cornerback, Jeffery has a good chance to beat those numbers.

How Jeffery does it: Baker, who plays primarily right corner, should see plenty of Jeffery, who tends to see most of his action from the left side. Jeffery's size (6-foot-3 and 218 pounds) will present a mismatch for Baker (5-foot-11 and 180 pounds), especially in man-to-man situations. Jeffery is a good route-runner for his size, making him a dangerous matchup for anybody.

Jeffery's first catch against Miami was the result of a one-on-one win against man coverage from the left side, a perfect example of how he may dominate Baker and the Giants with consistency on Monday. Jeffery (top of picture) does a good job staying vertical against Ken Webster, then gives a sharp break outside to separate. Although the catch is not the cleanest, he manages to haul in the slightly awry pass, completing a chain-moving play that was created by his route-running ability.