Week 17 NFC South predictions: Do the Buccaneers clinch the division?

Entering Week 17, the Falcons' and Saints' hopes of reaching the playoffs are on life support while the Buccaneers have their eye on clinching their third division title in a row.

Here are our predictions for the penultimate week of the regular season. 

Atlanta Falcons (7-8) at Chicago Bears (6-9) | 1 p.m. ET

Atlanta's playoff hopes are hanging by a thread, and Chicago has what it needs to cut the last string. The Bears should control the line of scrimmage, allowing quarterback Justin Fields to dissect the Falcons with his arms and his legs. The Bears are seventh in ESPN's pass-block win-rate rankings while the Falcons are 31st in pass-rush win-rate. Atlanta also struggles to stop mobile quarterbacks, allowing 334 yards and five touchdowns on QB rush attempts (h/t RotoWire). 

For the Falcons to win, they'll have to rely on Taylor Heinicke's arm, particularly his connection with rookie first-round running back Bijan Robinson. Chicago is one of three teams that haven't allowed 1,000 rushing yards to running backs this season (Detroit, San Francisco), but it's allowed the second-most receptions (98) and a league-high 7.45 yards per target to players at the position. The only problem with that plan is it requires Falcons head coach Arthur Smith to consistently use his best offensive weapon. That will be the game's X-factor, one Atlanta will be unable to overcome.

PREDICTION: Bears, 26-18

New Orleans Saints (7-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7) | 1 p.m. ET

Break out the championship T-shirts and hats as the Bucs are about to win their third consecutive NFC South crown. Tampa Bay has won three consecutive against New Orleans, including a 26-9 rout in the Superdome earlier this season. It will make it four straight in Week 17. 

The Saints have the pieces to be able to move the ball effectively but are far too inconsistent - not just game-to-game but snap-to-snap - to believe they can hang with the Bucs for a full 60 minutes. Tampa quarterback Baker Mayfield has been playing at arguably the highest level of his NFL career over the past two weeks and will light up a Saints secondary that suddenly is sorely missing cornerback Marshon Lattimore. Rams wideouts Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua carved up New Orleans' defensive backs, and Bucs wideouts Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will be just as unforgiving.  

PREDICTION: Buccaneers, 27-20

Carolina Panthers (2-13) at Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7) | 1 p.m. ET

Jacksonville is free-falling while Carolina is playing its best ball of the season. The Jaguars were blown out by the Bucs in Week 15, a fourth consecutive loss that has put Jacksonville on the verge of missing the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Panthers followed their second win of the season in Week 14 against Atlanta with their best offensive performance of the year against the Packers in a 33-30 loss.

The Jags defense has had its share of lapses this season, ranking 20th in scoring (22.9 points allowed per game) and 25th in total defense (358.5 yards allowed per game). However, the root of their current skid has been their horrible turnover luck. Through the first eight weeks of the season when Jacksonville was 6-2, it had a plus-five turnover margin with 13 giveaways and 18 takeaways. During the past seven weeks, while going 2-5, the Jags are negative-eight (15 turnovers, seven takeaways). Relief could come in the form of Carolina. 

The Panthers are the worst team in the league at forcing turnovers, with only 6.2 percent of opponent drives ending in a turnover. They are also terrible at generating pressure with a league-low 16.7 pressure rate and 21 sacks, making Trevor Lawrence's (AC sprain) or C.J. Beathard's job much easier.

PREDICTION: Jaguars, 24-17