NFL News

Home

Teams

Quizzes

Watch

Newsletter

Ryan Tannehill's Titans and Deshaun Watson's Texans face off in Week 17 in Houston. Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Week 17 NFL mismatches: Why Niners, Titans, Eagles may roll

By Michael Nania | Last updated 12/23/19

Yardbarker's Michael Nania analyzes the biggest positional mismatches each week during the NFL season.

GLOSSARY:

DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average): A method of evaluating teams, units or players in a comparative fashion. It takes every play during the NFL season and compares each to a league-average baseline based on situation.

EPA (Estimated Points Added): The measure of a play’s impact on the score of the game. It represents the difference between a team's "expected points value" (the net point value a team can expect given a particular combination of down, distance and field position) before and after a play.

49ers run game vs. Seahawks run defense

Why San Francisco has edge: The 49ers' rushing attack is excellent, ranking second in rushing yards per game (145.1) and touchdowns (20) and seventh in yards per rush attempt (4.6).

A three-headed monster in the backfield is the hallmark of Kyle Shanahan's run game. RBs Tevin Coleman (10.2 attempts per game), Matt Breida (9.9) and Raheem Mostert (8.5) are each heavily involved. All three players are effective, combining for 13 rushing touchdowns and 4.9 yards per attempt. Racking up big plays is what the 49ers do best on the ground. San Francisco has 60 rushes for 10 yards or more, second most to only the historically great Baltimore run game, which averages 204.9 yards per game.

Why Seattle will struggle: The Seahawks are susceptible against the run game, ranking 26th in rush defense EPA. Seattle has allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns (19), fifth-most yards per rush attempt (4.8) and 10th-most rushing yards per game (117.0). Over their past three games, two of which were losses, the Seahawks have allowed an average of 186.7 rushing yards.

Seattle has given up 51 rushes of 10-plus yards, tied for the seventh most. This is a new issue for the Seahawks, and one that probably makes head coach Pete Carroll want to spit out his bubblegum in anguish — over Carroll's first nine years as head coach in Seattle (2010-18), the Seahawks gave up the third-fewest rushing plays of 10 yards or more.

How San Francisco does it: Mostert has scored in each of his past five games, averaging 6.1 yards per rush attempt over that span. He leads the 49ers with 20 rushes for 10-plus yards, and is tied for second in the NFL with five rushing touchdowns of 10-plus yards.

Mostert flashed his breakaway ability on this 40-yard touchdown against the Ravens in Week 13. The 49ers call an outside zone run, which is blocked superbly by the offensive line, tight end George Kittle, and wide receiver Richie James. Mostert reads it perfectly and hits the second level, showing off his 4.32 40-yard dash time as he runs through ankle tackles. Mostert's final obstacle is All-Pro safety Earl Thomas, whose poorly angled tackle attempt is evaded with ease. All the tools that make San Francisco so good at racking up breakaway runs — a good play call, strong blocking, top-end speed and evasiveness — are on display here.

pic.twitter.com/19AwmBtuxX
— Yardbarker All-22 (@22Yardbarker) December 23, 2019

Titans wide receiver A.J. Brown vs. Texans secondary

Why Brown has edge: The rookie is one of the NFL's hottest wide receivers, ranking third in receiving yards since Week 12 with 481 (trailing only Robert Woods of the Rams and Michael Thomas of the Saints) despite ranking just 41st in receptions over that span (21). Brown is a big-play threat, leading all qualifiers with 22.9 yards per reception since Week 12. On the season, Brown's five receptions for 50-plus yards lead the NFL.

In Week 15, Brown was a problem for the Texans, carving them up with the big play and the underneath game. On a season-high 13 targets, Brown posted season-bests of eight receptions and six first downs, collecting 114 yards in his steadiest performance of the season. Brown broke out early with a 60-yard grab, but he also caught a season-best five conversions of 11 yards or less.

Why Houston will struggle: The Texans' defense ranks 22nd in passer rating (96.2), 24th in pass defense EPA, 25th in net yards per attempt (6.8) and 30th in passing yards per game (270.3). Houston has allowed 55 passes for 20 yards or more, eighth most in the league. Romeo Crennel's defense is even worse in this area recently, allowing 20 of those big passes since Week 12, tied for third most in the NFL. Perhaps the return of end J.J. Watt, out since Week 8 with a pectoral injury, will aid the pass rush and coverage. He reportedly is expected to return for the playoffs.

How Brown does it: In Week 15, Brown dominated Houston cornerbacks. Against the coverage of Johnathan Joseph, Vernon Hargreaves and Bradley Roby, he grabbed seven of 11 targets for 107 yards and six first downs. Joseph was the guilty man on Brown's game-long 60-yard bomb. On this play, Brown showed off traits that make him an elite big-play threat. Brown has top-notch size at 226 pounds (94th percentile among wide receivers), but he still posted a 4.49 40 time at the combine (57th percentile), impressive for a player his size. Brown's combination of size and speed makes him to difficult to stop, as shown here. Brown (bottom of picture, wide right) uses his hands to fight off Joseph's coverage, then is fast enough to separate and haul in the perfect pass from Ryan Tannehill. Few players his size have that combination of speed and deep-tracking ability.

pic.twitter.com/yoyLdUB4Bg
— Yardbarker All-22 (@22Yardbarker) December 23, 2019

Eagles QB Carson Wentz vs. Giants defense

Why Wentz has edge: With numerous offensive starters out with injuries, he has carried the franchise. In the Eagles' three-game winning streak, Wentz has tossed six touchdowns and no interceptions, averaging 303.3 yards and posting a 104.5 passer rating. (Overall league passer rating is 90.9.) Wentz took full advantage of the Eagles' weak NFC East slate over that span, beating up on the Giants, Redskins and Cowboys units that are ranked in the bottom half of pass defense DVOA.

The Eagles trailed in the fourth quarter of their victories over New York and Washington, and led by only one touchdown against Dallas in Week 16. Over the past three weeks, Wentz posted a 127.9 passer rating in the fourth quarter, third best behind Tennessee's Ryan Tannehill and New Orleans' Drew Brees. Wentz's 18 first down/touchdown passes in the fourth quarter are tied for the most in the league over that span.

Why Giants will struggle: The Big Blue secondary is a huge liability, allowing the second-most yards per attempt (8.1) and fourth-highest passer rating (102.4). In Week 16, the Giants had one of their worst defensive efforts, allowing the anemic Redskins to post a season-best 122.8 passer rating between the combination of Dwayne Haskins and Case Keenum (plus one pass by Kelvin Harmon).

Wentz is a Giant-killer, going 5-1 and averaging 255.2 yards and a 92.2 passer rating against New York. The Giants have picked off Wentz just three times over his 216 passes against them, an interception rate of 1.4 percent.

How Wentz does it: This throw against the Redskins in Week 15 was one of the best of Wentz's career. With the Eagles trailing in the third quarter, he rolls out and fires a rocket that somehow zips by three defenders and into the hands of running back Miles Sanders, who was hiding in the back corner of the end zone. It can hardly get any more precise than this.