The NFL is back, but what's up with the starting quarterbacks?
Week 1 of the 2024 season saw a dramatic downturn in passing stats compared to the past five seasons. Passing touchdowns and yardage decreased overall, while the number of starting quarterbacks who threw for fewer than 200 yards increased.
In Week 1, only two quarterbacks threw for more than 300 yards — Matthew Stafford of the Los Angeles Rams (317 yards) and Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins (338 yards) — while five QBs did so in Week 1 last season. Only five seasons ago, in 2019, 13 quarterbacks threw for at least 300 yards in Week 1 — nearly half the league.
In Week 1 this season, the number of quarterbacks who failed to reach 200 passing yards dwarfed the 2019 total of 300-yard passers. Last week, 17 quarterbacks threw for fewer than 200 yards (with 93 passing yards, rookie Caleb Williams of the Bears was the only starting signal-caller to not surpass 100 yards.) In 2019, only eight QBs threw for fewer than 200 yards in Week 1.
Among the stars playing in Week 1, Aaron Rodgers (167 yards) of the New York Jets, Dak Prescott (179 yards) of the Dallas Cowboys, Joe Burrow (164 yards) of the Cincinnati Bengals and Kyler Murray (162 yards) of the Arizona Cardinals failed to reach 200 yards passing. The average passing yardage figure for starting quarterbacks was 202 in Week 1, down eight yards from last season.
Not only was the ball not traveling through the air as much, but it wasn't finding the end zone either, as the below post from NFL analyst Steve Palazzolo makes clear.
Week 1 NFL passing touchdowns
— Steve Palazzolo (@StevePalazzolo_) September 9, 2024
2019 : 61
2020: 52
2021: 61
2022: 51
2023: 37
2024: 33*
*Pending MNF
Accounting for Monday Night football, quarterbacks threw for 35 touchdowns in Week 1, a slight drop-off from last season's total of 37. But both of the past two seasons saw a major drop-off compared to the Week 1 totals of 51 in 2022, 61 in 2021, 52 in 2020 and 61 in 2019.
Despite this downturn in passing stats, scoring has maintained a consistent level over the past few seasons. During Week 1, teams averaged 22.9 points scored. The 2023 and 2022 seasons had less scoring in Week 1 than in 2024, with an average of 20.5 and 21 points scored, respectively.
How is it that Week 1 scoring increased compared to the past three years but quarterback stats were down?
To put it simply, running backs. They dominated the scoring in Week 1, with 36 rushing touchdowns compared to the 35 passing touchdowns — the most rushing TDs in Week 1 since 35 in 2020.
But it wasn't just scoring that made running backs more valuable in Week 1, it was the rushing yards. Seven RBs reached the century mark in Week 1, the most since 2014, when eight players rushed for at least 100 yards.
The NFL is a passing league and rules are made for quarterbacks and receivers to succeed. But with defenses prioritizing shutdown cornerbacks, could 2024 be the year of the running back?
The sample size is small, but quarterback play, as usual, bears watching.
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