Week 3 AFC South predictions: Jags can take sole possession of first place

The AFC South split their games last week with the Titans and Colts picking up their first wins of the season. Here are predictions for Week 3’s slate of games:

Houston Texans (0-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1): C.J. Stroud had a breakout game last week against the Colts (384 yards, two touchdowns, 103.5 passer rating), but he needs more help from the run game, which has averaged just 2.5 yards per carry and totaled 124 yards through two games. Unfortunately for Houston, Jacksonville has a top-10 defense against the run (83.3 yards allowed per game), so it may be on Stroud to once again come up big.

Conversely, the Texans rank in the bottom third of the NFL in run defense, so this could be the perfect time to get Travis Etienne going (he has just 117 yards through two games). Trevor Lawrence was off his game against the Chiefs in Week 2, and if that trend continues this week, this could be a closer game than many might initially think. That said, Jacksonville has the better offense with more playmakers and it should be able to pull off a win.

PREDICTION: Jaguars 24, Texans 16

Indianapolis Colts (1-1) at Baltimore Ravens (2-0): Despite being down starting running back J.K. Dobbins, the Ravens offense has played pretty well. The Colts have surrendered just 78.5 yards rushing per game, so if they can keep Gus Edwards and Justice Hill in check, they’ll force Lamar Jackson to beat them with his arm (he’s only thrown for 406 yards and two touchdowns).

However, the Colts’ chances of making this a game depend on whether rookie QB Anthony Richardson or veteran Gardner Minshew plays. If Richardson is good to go, it makes Indy’s offense more dynamic and gives Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald more to worry about. If Minshew starts, the Colts are more one-dimensional and less of a threat to put up many points.

PREDICTION: Ravens 31, Colts 21

Tennessee Titans (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-1): It took Tennessee’s offense five quarters to finally wake up, but once it did, things were moving smoothly. The Titans have one of the best-run defenses in the league, and with Nick Chubb out and Jerome Ford in, their job becomes much easier. If the run game is taken out of the equation, then it falls on Deshaun Watson to start living up to his $230 million fully guaranteed contract.

Pass defense has been the Titans’ Achilles heel. The team has allowed 305 yards to both Derek Carr and Justin Herbert in Weeks 1 and 2, and if there were a defense for a quarterback to get right against, it would be the Titans. Getting No. 1 CB Kristian Fulton back will help, but opposing QBs have a completion percentage of 71.4 and a passer rating of 106.3 against the Titans this year.

PREDICTION: Browns 23, Titans 19