It took a month, but we FINALLY broke through last week sweeping all four of our official bets for a total profit of 4.2 units on the day. For the season, we sit at 9-8 with a profit of 2.3 units. Let’s ride this wave to another profitable week, shall we?
All bets are one unit plays unless otherwise specified.
Josh Jacobs 80+ Alternate Rushing Yards + Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+124 DraftKings)
The Bengals are heavy underdogs, but even IF they keep the game competitive, I expect Josh Jacobs to be heavily involved.
My Bet Backers:
- Since the start of 2023, 13 teams have been favorites of at least 14 points. Those 13 teams have AVERAGED 168 rush yards.
- Jacobs has 83% of the GB running back carries this season, and has scored in 3/4 games this season, and 11/12 games dating back to last season
- Running backs have accounted for seven total touchdowns against the Bengals over the last four games
Tucker Kraft 4+ Alternate Receptions + Chase Brown 3+ Alternate Receptions (+121 FanDuel)
The Bengals defense has struggled against tight ends this season, and Kraft just so happens to be the Packers leading receiver this season.
My Bet Backers:
- Kraft has seven games of 4+ receptions over the last two seasons, eclipsing 40 receiving yards in five of those contests
- The Bengals have allowed at least six receptions to the opposing team tight ends in four games thus far
- Flacco targeted the running back position six times against the Packers just a couple of weeks ago, and Brown has had at least three catches in three consecutive games.
Either Team to Score 3 Unanswered Times - No (+190 DraftKings)
I am putting half a unit on this, mainly due to my lack of experience betting this prop. However, at these odds it is too tempting to ignore altogether.
My Bet Backers:
- The Bengals defense has prevented the opposing team from scoring three unanswered in 3/5 games thus far, with the exceptions being the Vikings debacle and Broncos offensive ineptitude.
- The Packers offense has not scored three unanswered times in any game this season, and while they have allowed two opposing offenses to do so – the Bengals will have to show me before I believe it to be possible.
Mike Gesicki 3+ Alternate Receptions + Ja’Marr Chase 5+ Alternate Receptions (+140 DraftKings)
The two best slot weapons on the Bengals could BOTH be due for a strong game at Lambeau on Sunday.
My Bet Backers:
- Tight ends have produced against the Green Bay defense through four games this season, with FIVE already notching three or more receptions
- Three separate tight ends have hit this line from slot alignment alone, which is where Gesicki has reeled in the second-most catches on the Bengals behind only Ja’Marr Chase
- Ja’Marr has hit this in every game since Week 1
Romeo Doubs 20+ 1st Half Receiving Yards + Chase Brown 5+ 1st Half Receiving Yards (+122 DraftKings)
Last week we hit our first attempt at a 1st half-only parlay, so we head back to the well again this week.
My Bet Backers:
- Doubs has exceeded 20 first half receiving yards in 3/4 games so far this season, with the lone exception being a 19 yard output against Dallas
- Brown has comfortably exceeded this line in 4/5 games this season, and nearly 1/3 of Flacco’s completed passes so far this season have been to the running back position
Last year I put a long shot bet in nearly every article, but have yet to do so this year – until now. Bet at your own risk, although I am only betting 0.25 units to win 2.4 units.
Ja’Marr Chase 6+ Alternate Receptions + Tucker Kraft 60+ Alternate Receiving Yards + Josh Jacobs Anytime Touchdown Scorer + Ja’Marr Chase Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+985 FanDuel)
My Bet Backers:
- Kraft has run 20+ routes in 3/4 games this season, tallying 50+ receiving yards in two of those contests
- Josh Jacobs has scored in 11 of his last 12 games
- Ja’Marr may enter the contest questionable, but what is not questionable is his impact on the game. On a short week of prep, with a likely condensed playbook, I expect Flacco to look Ja’Marr’s way early and often
As always, don't forget check out my X for more player props prior to the game. With sportsbooks adding more player lines and promos leading up to kickoff, we will look for value to capitalize on.
*DISCLAIMER* This is not intended to be betting advice, rather these are some props I like and will be placing my money on. While I use data and research to support my picks, there is no such thing as a sure bet. Always remember to only bet amounts you are comfortable losing.