Week 7 NFL mismatches: Why Raiders rookie Josh Jacobs could power upset

The 220-pound Jacobs is as tough to bring down as they come. Against his powerful running style, Green Bay's run defense must build on what it accomplished in Week 6, when it held the Lions to 56 yards rushing. If the Packers revert to their Weeks 2-5 form (161.3 rushing yards allowed per game), Green Bay could be in trouble.

Rams WR Brandin Cooks vs. Falcons CB Isaiah Oliver

Atlanta's awful defense, ranked 29th in defensive DVOA, 30th in takeaway rate and 32nd in points allowed per drive, is the main reason the Falcons are 1-5. The secondary is the root cause of many of the team's defensive issues.

Atlanta has allowed the third-highest opponent passer rating (119.2; league average is 91.2) and second-most net yards per pass attempt (8.3). The Falcons are 31st in pass defense DVOA and last in pass defense EPA by a wide margin.

Second-year cornerback Isaiah Oliver -- who has allowed 379 receiving yards in coverage, fifth most among cornerbacks -- is one of the primary culprits. (In addition, the five penalties called against him are the second most at the position.) Playing primarily right cornerback, Oliver will likely see a lot of Cooks, who typically lines up on the left side of the Rams' offense.

One of the league's most dominant deep threats over the course of his career, Cooks is overdue for a breakout game after averaging only 23.5 receiving yards over his past two contests. Since 2014, Cooks is ninth in receiving yards (5,490) and fourth in yards per target (9.42) among wide receivers with at least 400 targets. His impressive speed and deep-ball tracking ability are tools that make him a huge threat. Both traits were displayed on the following play against the Saints in Week 2.

On third & 16, Marshon Lattimore plays soft on Cooks (bottom of picture), standing about nine yards off the line. He plays with outside leverage, looking to funnel anything deep to the safety in the middle of the field. Cooks takes full advantage of the coverage as he runs the go route at full speed straight up the field. He does two things well here: staying vertical, which allows him to keep away from the safety, and never breaking his stride, which allows him to use his speed to beat Lattimore over the top with ease. Jared Goff throws a beautiful ball, and Cooks makes the over-the-shoulder grab. 

Vikings run defense vs. Lions rushing attack

A good running game has long eluded the Lions, who have not ranked in the top half of the league in rushing yards since 1998, the last season that Barry Sanders toted the rock in Detroit

In 2019, the Lions, who rank ninth in rush attempts per game (28.6), emphasize the run more than they have in recent seasons. Even though Detroit ranks 16th in rushing yards per game (107.6), its running game isn't efficient. Detroit ranks 26th in yards per rush attempt (3.8), 28th in rush offense DVOA and 29th in rush offense EPA.

The reason for Detroit's low rankings in advanced metrics is its lack of efficiency in key situations, especially short yardage. The Lions have converted just 50 percent of the time on third or fourth downs with two yards or less to go, tied for 26th in the NFL. Detroit is also poor rushing near the goal line. On rushing attempts in the red zone, Detroit has converted for a first down or touchdown on just 15 percent of attempts, second worst in the NFL.

On Sunday against the Vikings' excellent rushing defense, the Lions may not find a spark for their running attack. Minnesota ranks third in rush defense EPA and fourth in rush defense DVOA; it places eighth in rushing yards per attempt allowed (3.8) and ninth in rushing yards per game allowed (91.5).  Minnesota is especially stingy against the run in the red zone, allowing a a first down or touchdown on just 18.2 percent of attempts, the league's third-lowest rate.

Mike Zimmer's athletic linebackers and edge defenders make a lot of plays against the run. On this third-and-3 play against the Bears in Week 4, Chase Daniel scampers for the sticks on a designed quarterback run. Danielle Hunter (#99, left defensive end) reads it quickly, then uses an nifty swim move to evade Cordarrelle Patterson and chase down the quarterback. Hunter closes quickly and makes an athletic tackle, bringing Daniel down from behind and holding him shy of the first down.

Hunter is best known for his ability to terrorize quarterbacks in the passing game, but he is a beast against the run as well. Look for him to consistently blow up running plays against Detroit ⁠— especially in key situations.

49ers secondary vs. Redskins passing attack

In Week 6, Washington barely defeated the hapless Dolphins for its first win. Given the opponent, the Redskins' performance was underwhelming, especially in the passing game. Miami's terrible pass defense has yielded 10.1 yards per attempt, the worst in league history over a team's first five games. With Case Keenum back under center, the Redskins  gained only 6.6 yards per pass attempt and only 166 yards passing overall.

The 49ers (5-0) rank second in DVOA and third in points allowed per drive, making the Week 7 matchup against the Redskins especially lopsided. Their success is fueled by a suffocating pass defense that ranks No. 1 in DVOA and second in opposing passer rating (62.5), interception percentage (4.6 percent) and net yards per pass attempt (4.4).

The Niners are coming off an impressive 20-7 road win against the Rams in which they held Jared Goff to 78 yards passing and 3.3 yards per attempt. The latter figure is the worst mark posted by a starting quarterback against the 49ers since 2003 (minimum 20 pass attempts).

San Francisco's dominant front seven is the primary reason the Niners are undefeated. The 49ers sacked Goff four times, with three of those coming almost immediately after he dropped back. Watch how quickly Dee Ford (#55, lined up over right tackle) wins with the speed rush to get the strip sack on Goff.

The quartet of Ford, Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner are outstanding, combining for 80 pressures and 12 sacks. Against a bad Redskins passing attack, expect them to significantly pad those impressive numbers.